US Housing Market Crash 2018 2019 and Beyond

Housing Market Crash 2018?

Despite the strength of the US economy, growing employment and wages, a high number of investors and homebuyers are concerned about a housing market crash in 2018 or 2019.

Take a good look at the crash factors below and the national housing market forecast along with predictions for major urban housing markets such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, Seattle, New York and Boston.




Trump Volatility: No Telling Who He’ll Point at Next: Canada, China, Mexico? Trade wars can fester quickly like a wild fire.

Certainly the recent comments of the President that “Trade Wars are Good” don’t help settle the volatility in the stock markets. Strong inflation and cost of living rises, potential trade wars, along with high mortgage rates are serious threats.

In this post we try to take an objective look at the unthinkable. At least, it’s unthinkable for some that booming markets in Los Angeles, San Fransciso, Sacramento, San Jose, Seattle, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas, Charlotte, Boston and Miami could possibly collapse. Is the Toronto housing bubble (worst in world now) the future for US cities?



Going back to 2007, did anyone suspect what was about to happen?

When Will Local Market Bubbles Burst?

If you look at the forecasts for all the bubbled up city markets such as San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, Seattle, New York and Boston you’ll likely think back to prices before the last crash.

Are you spooked about the real estate market in 2018 or 2019? Is the market sufficiently over heated? When will interest rates become a problem? The recent jobs report was strong, although wages aren’t overheating. Supply is coming online.

Take a look at the 12 Top Crash Factors listed below do help decide whethery buying a house or rental apartment is still a wise decision.

Check the state of the US housing market right now and 2018 forecast.

The recent stock market correction gives us pause for thought about how volatility can factor into a housing crash. However, the housing market is healthy with construction rising and it will be a long time before demand is satisfied.

Mathematicians have studied housing bubbles, such as The University of Pennsylvania, and their HOUSING BUBBLE STRUCTURAL MODEL AND HYPOTHESES models couldn’t figure it out. The factors they studied do play a role, but housing bubbles and crashes are likely a cultural phenomenon (outside of major recessions).  It comes down to values, dreams and panic emotions.

There are some financial market players who make their fortune on crashes and if consumemrs are miffed about the direction of the market, it would be fertile ground for crash talk.

As long as Americans are employed with rising wages and growing GDP, housing crashes aren’t likely. Yet, a few experts such as Harry Dent are convinced a housing market disaster looms in the next few years. Even Anthony Robbins is speaking up about it in a video below.



A growing number of homeowners and buyers are talking housing bubble. With prices stable, economy strong, and demand persistent, why would so many feel the market could crash? Is buyer and seller pessimism enough to launch a sudden collapse?

Have a good look at the current housing market along with the residential markets in cities such as Boston, Houston, Seattle, Sacramento, and Los Angeles. If you or your family are considering buying a home or condo, it’s wise to understand the macroecomic and human factors.

There’s two camps on the 2018 crash issue. First those who see the unbelievable rate of economic growth in the US and believe it has to end; and secondly, those who see only positive signals and the solid political footing of the Trump administration in its resolution to bring good paying jobs and industry back to the US.

Even if the US is headed for greater things, it doesn’t preclude the possibility of a major market correction in housing. But for housing to crash, a series of factors would have to align.

12 Housing Crash Factors

  1. excessively high home prices via a price bubble
  2. increasing underwater mortgages
  3. fast rising interest mortgage rates
  4. slowing economy and sudden rises in unemployment
  5. wage growth not keeping up with home prices
  6. tax changes and geo-political shifts
  7. trade deal disturbance
  8. a stock market bubble and volatility
  9. high level of consumer debt affecting debt servicing
  10. cost of living rises
  11. risky low rate mortgages for new home buyers
  12. high oil and energy prices

We might add a very strong US dollar to the mix too. A strong dollar makes US exports too expensive thus threatening jobs here and making imports more attractive.

Even though the housing markets have substantial strength, the world is a very connected place. If China and other economies were to collapse, it might be enough to send the stock markets and real estate markets plummeting. Dent says New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago and Boston are the riskiest markets.

What did say Mellon Bank’s expert say back in 2014, about the source of recessions?

2018 will be a big year: Economist from CNBC.

Neil Kashkari talks extensively about false prophets (Alan Greenspan) and the sources of market bubbles such as $100 barrel oil, and other uncontrollable situations.  He says market bubbles and crashes are very complex and the source is often completely unexpected. Could the oil sheiks take the US economy down again? Could China do it? Is the $20 Trillion debt a threat? Or is just the end of a bull run in the stock market?

However, in those cases where debt is fueling the asset value increase, a correction could trigger financial instability, because banks might take huge losses and potentially fail.” — Neil Kashkari.

If you’ve purchased a pricey home or condo, or you’re considering buying a property in the overheated Los Angeles housing market, San Francisco housing market or those in New York, Seattle, San Jose, San Diego, Portland, Austin, Houston, Charlotte, Miami, Dallas, or other hot real estate markets, you’re likely feeling some nerves of late.

The turbulence of the election, rising interest rates against overheated housing markets does give some plausibility to a US housing crash in 2018 or 2019. Proponents of an upcoming crash point to too many Americans living lavish lifestyles, still buying expensive foreign luxury cars on a $40,000 salary, while sitting on over-leveraged monster mortgages that could be subject to quickly rising mortgage rates.

In San Francisco, the risk of a bubble burst in 2018/2019 is highest and that city is ranked number 1 as highest for a crash. Prices in the San Francisco Bay area housing market are extremely high and if the tech sector does have an extended downtick with rising mortgage rates, perhaps the forecasted slide could start.

Top 10 Cities Most Likely to Experience a Housing Crash

From a report in AOL.com here are the top ten US Cities most likely to experience a crash:

  1. Portland, Oregon
  2. Charleston, SC
  3. Buffalo, NY
  4. Fresno, CA
  5. Los Angeles, CA
  6. Dallas, TX
  7. Salt Lake City, UT
  8. Austin, TX
  9. San Jose, CA
  10. San Francisco, CA

Interesting list, dominated by California and Texas, which have been doing well economically. With oil prices rising, I wonder if that will calm the situation in Dallas and Houston? A good number of people are inquiring about a Florida housing crash as well, yet Miami isn’t the whole Florida market.

Tyler Durden of zerohedge.com discusses in a post how homeowners are burdened in debt and unable to refinance their mortgages. He points to his key statistic that mortgage owners will not be refinancing their mortgages in 2017 which points in the direction of bubble bursts and crashes.

This chart below paints a very scary picture, that it’s worse than 2006.  Not only does it correlate 2017 with 2006, it shows that we’re up high on a dangerous cliff in some cities. However, most cities aren’t in this situation, so if a collapse in California, New York and Texas were to occur, other cities might survive okay.

There are other mitigating factors too such as the strengths in the economy, foreign investors buying property, and rising optimism and confidence since Trump won the election.  At this point, we’re wondering if Obama and Clinton are relieved not to have to face the mess they created? Trump seems to be up to the task and yet, he has purportedly said he would enjoy watching the crash, even if it takes down some of his real estate empire. Is this just a comment on high home prices?

The cost and availability of credit provide fuel for a bubble to inflate, inviting even less experienced, or less credit-worthy players into the game, all of whom believe they will sell their recently purchased assets at ever-increasing prices — from a CNBC post.

That credit is being freed up in 2018/2019, but will it fast enough to create huge instability if mortgage rates don’t rise precipitously? Here’s Seattlebubble’s reasoning on why we may not be in a housing bubble/crash situation:

  • still lots of all-cash buyers, with few zero-down buyers
  • no crazy neg-am, fog-a-mirror, interest-only home loans like last time
  • interest rates remaining low
  • affordability index not as bad
  • buyers and lenders more cautious

Home prices aren’t as high as they were in 2006/2007 and mortgage rates are much lower:





No one will dispute that there are big risks but for 2017, everything looks to be under control.

Are you looking for the best cities to invest in real estate? The top 80 cities to buy rental properties gives you a peak at the potential of rental property investment.

Is this the right year to buy a rental income property?  What are the best investments in 2017 and is investing in real estate a wise decision?

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Disclaimer: this post/information is meant as a discussion of housing and investing issues, ideas and trends, not as advice for investment. Please use good judgement and professional advice if you’re investing in any market whether stocks or real estate.

Houses for Sale – Find Homes for Sale in Your City

Houses for Sale – Your Ultimate Source for Finding Homes for Sale

If you’ve read the housing forecast report, you know the availability of homes for sale is squeezed. A lot of properties aren’t even listed which will make it significantly difficult for you to find the property you’re dreaming of.

Real estate investors know fast about great homes for sale that offer the best investment value and there’s several ways they get first dibs on properties for sale.




Realtor Pocket Listings is one way they get connected to exclusive, quality houses. This is where the Realtor works both sides of a transaction and they keep the home listing to themselves hoping to broker it to their own pool of buyers. This works well in a market like we have now where houses for sale are rare.

Realtors will keep these listings quiet, so you need to be in contact with as many Realtors as possible, such as one from each major brokerage. The bottom line in finding your dream home or good investment property and houses for sale in your city is with a well rounded home search strategy.




Houses for Sale on the MLS

Remember that you may not see the best houses for sale on the MLS. You need to expand your search online using a variety of housing sources. Some services also do complex predictive analytics where they monitor social activity and other sources to find homebuyers and sellers who are exhibiting pre-sale behavior. This can be very good.

Realtor.com, Zillow, Remax, Trulia, Redfin, Coldwell Banker, Century 21, Sothebys, and Craigslist might be the way to go, to find houses for sale, but you’re kind of getting the leftovers. It’s like searching for a job using the classifieds. These are the awful jobs companies can’t fill so they advertise and go through the painful process of employee selection. That’s a grind.




Finding the Best Houses for Sale

With real estate, you’re looking for the best properties, the good stuff, that no one knows about. It’s better to find the best rather than toiling with a Realtor sorting through a limited supply. However, it’s wise to use a Realtor as part of your quest to find the best homes, houses, condos, townhouses, apartments or income investment properties from Los Angeles to San Diego to Florida. Use the Zillow Home Search Tool to get started!

Investors, while you’re at it, get educated about the national housing forecast, and find housing markets where there is a good upside potential for ROI. Don’t stick to your local market just because you live there. There’s more potential in the best cities.




Our quest in this page is detached houses for sale in your city. Let’s get started!

Los Angeles Houses for Sale
San Diego Houses for Sale
San Fransisco Houses for Sale
Houses for Sale in Miami
Houses for Sale in Boca Raton
Houses for Sale Long Beach
Houses for Sale Fresno
Houses for Sale Oakland
Homes for Sale Riverside
Homes for Sale in Bakersfield
Homes for Sale Santa Ana
Houses for Sale in Seattle
Houses for Sale in Portland
Houses for Sale in Phoenix
Houses for Sale in Denver
Houses for Sale in the Bay Area CA
Houses for Sale in Boston
Houses for Sale in Tampa
Houses for Sale in Houston
Houses for Sale in Dallas
Houses for Sale in Charlotte
Houses for Sale in Toronto
Houses for Sale in Vancouver
Houses for Sale in Chicago
Houses for Sale in New York
Houses for Sale in Philadelphia
Houses for Sale in Minneapolis




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Car Insurance Quote San Jose CA – Cars Trucks Motorcycles Quotes

Get the Best Auto Insurance in San Jose Now

If you’re buying a new car, or you’re moving away from the San Francisco Palo Alto Mountainview Bay area, or your car insurance policy is up for renewal, this is a good time to review how much your auto insurance policy is costing you.

Car insurance in the San Francisco to San Jose corridor is expensive. In fact, everything’s expensive including your mortgage, which is why you need to find ways to save.

lowest-city-insuranceRevealed in this how to save on car insurance post is how you get quotes varying by as much as $1700 per year, and perhaps even more for young or high risk drivers. That’s why it’s wise to be open and ready to switch insurance companies.

7 Best Ways to Save on Your Insurance

  1. buy an old car to drive to work
  2. buy usage-based insurance
  3. don’t buy collision coverage for your old car
  4. install anti-theft device
  5. get at least 10 online insurance quotes
  6. raise your deductible
  7. don’t buy an expensive automobile or big truck




Don’t make these car insurance buying mistakes:

car-insurance-mistakes-infographic

The rate of growth of electric car manufacturing is increasing. Chances are you’ll be buying an electric car. Are they cheaper to insure because they don’t have a gas powered motor? Likely not. It has the same likelihood of being involved in a collision and repairs could actually be more expensive.

In the meantime, explore and compare car vs truck insurance so you’re able to get the best rates. If you’re saving even as low as $700 per year on your policy, that’s still $3500 over 5 years. And since most drivers tend to stick with an insurer out of convenience, it’s likely your premiums will rise over those 5 years. The major insurance companies have no inclination to provide lower quotes if they don’t have to. By shopping online for insurance, you’re putting pressure on them to lower those automobile insurance rates.




San Jose CA Auto Insurance Agents

Coast Auto Insurance Services Inc
1858 W San Carlos St,
San Jose, CA 95128, USA
408-977-1990

Acceptance Auto Insurance
2354 Alum Rock Ave,
San Jose, CA 95116, USA
408-254-7050

Harrington Insurance Agency
6920 Santa Teresa Blvd #101,
San Jose, CA 95119, USA
408-754-9000

Shop around for the cheapest car insurance rates online.  Rates vary in Los Angeles, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, St Louis, Minneapolis, Green Bay, Charlotte, Tampa, Miami, Orlando, Toronto, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Sacramento, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Salt Lake City, Riverside, Rancho Cucamonga, Costa Mesa, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Raleigh, Albuquerque, Glendale, Oceanside, Long Beach, Huntington Beach, Carlsbad, Santa Clarita, Temecula, Kirkland, Redmond, Kansas City, St Louis, Stockton, Scottsdale, Palm Springs, Indianapolis, Chula Vista, Escondido, or Santa Monica.




Check out insurance for cars and trucks in your city including car insurance for luxury cars:

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Consider using a telematics devices with usage based insurance to ensure you get a lowest auto truck insurance quote. If your kids driving behavior is erratic and aggressive, the insurer may not offer you lower rates. Telematics is proving to help improve driver’s driving habits and thus allowing California insurance companies to offer lower rates. There’s nothing wrong with saving on auto insurance. Search more and save more!

San Francisco Housing Forecast 2018 – Bay Area Real Estate Trends

The San Francisco Bay Area Forecast 2018

Enjoy this look at the housing market and real estate opportunity in the San Francisco Bay Area market. There are plenty of stats and charts below to help you understand the market better.

In many big US cities, losing an apartment rental lease is a serious matter.  For some, it could lead to living in a vehicle or on the street or in grossly over-occupied dwellings.  New York, Miami, Los Angeles, and Seattle are cities where renters are exposed to low availability and high rent.

Although it’s a nightmare for renters in San Francisco it’s the best investment opportunity for real estate investors like you.





Why discuss apartment rentals in San Francisco? Because renters here in the Bay City are looking to become home owners to build equity for their lives. And investors across the US and other countries are looking for  rental income properties.

The Bay area and San Francisco in particular are rated as the best locations for rental income investment. Builders have a grand sale or rental income opportunity in San Francisco.




How big is the need? It’s a textbook case of supply and demand where demand is huge and development is stunted and current homeowners have no intention of moving, even after retirement. This recent news about a Palo Alto commissioner quitting her job because it’s too expensive in Palo Alto says it all for everyone in the Bay Area and City of San Francisco. This woman and her family are moving 40 miles away to Vera Cruz.

“We rent our current home with another couple for $6,200 a month,” she wrote. “If we wanted to buy the same home and share it with children and not roommates, it would cost $2.7 million and our monthly payment would be $12,177 a month in mortgage, taxes, and insurance. That’s $146,127 per year — an entire professional’s income before taxes.” – experpt from a news report in Bizjournal.

Auto Insurance San Francisco

Looking for a better quote on San Francisco Auto Insurance. Find out how you can save on auto insurance and save thousands of dollars on your next policy. Time to switch insurance companies to get the rate you deserve.






The October 2016 Housing Sales Report

From sfrealtors.com, the newest report shows dwindling supply.

Inventory continues to be tight. Active single family home listings in San Francisco saw a 21.7% decrease bringing the number of listings for sale down to a sparse 387. During this same time there were 509 condos, TICs, and coops on the market, a 20.6% decrease from this same time last year. Homes in San Francisco saw a 34% increase from this same time last year, bringing the median sales price to $1,216,500. Condos, TICs, and coops saw a 10 percent increase, bringing the median sales price of those types of housing to $950,000.”

San Francisco home prices are $1 million above the above the average detached home price of a home sold across the US. The forecast for San Francisco is an extreme version of the Los Angeles forecast.

More Development Forecast?

The Trump government is shining the light on special interest groups or local governments who may be deliberately thwarting housing development. This might be the biggest news in real estate in 2017 to 2020.  Is exposure of municipal and state government restrictions and management of land and development going to a major break for new home investors and builders? Should the 2017 forecast be about the coming building boom?




Here’s the source of the problem in California communities:

The Legislative Analyst’s Office found that California’s coastal metros take about two and a half months longer, on average, to issue a building permit than in a typical California inland community or the typical U.S. metro,” the report admits. The result is housing gridlock.  From a post in sfchronicle.com.

A hot economy in the Bay area but perhaps leveling off?

Reports on San Francisco’s jobs and income growth look excellent. And if you’re a Trump believer, and supporter of bringing back American jobs, you have to feel pretty good about the jobs outlook, unless you’re a renter.

SF CONTINUES TO LEAD STATE IN JOB GROWTH

The San Francisco Metropolitan District (MD) continues to lead the state in job growth, and with an annual 4% increase in employment as of March 2016, is expanding its workforce at one and a half times the pace of California as a whole (2.65%). The San Francisco MD added 41,900 new nonfarm positions to its jobs base from March 2015 to March 2016. — from Beacon Economics report on the San Francisco economy.

Forecasts available at beaconecon.com/products/regional_outlook_san_francisco

And another report has it that tech in San Francisco Silicon Valley is strong and invulnerable to drops:

The Bay Area and California are in for slower job growth this year and next, but the Bay Area, powered by its high-tech economic engine, will outpace the state in job creation, according to two new economic forecasts released Wednesday.  

This year and next, the technology sector will add jobs at a brisk clip, propelling the Bay Area employment market and economy at a healthy pace, according to Christopher Thornberg, director of the Center for Economic Forecasting and Development at UC Riverside’s School of Business. “Tech is hot and will keep pushing the Bay Area forward,” Thornberg said.  – exerpt from news report in Mercury News (http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/09/28/forecasts-bay-area-job-market-economy-poised-to-shine/)

Housing Affordability Sucks in California

Why? The housing affordability rate has dropped 21% in 6 years, likely the key driver, moreso than immigration, high tech business success, or income growth. In San Francisco, people have to pay whatever the market demands. And renters haven’t been looking really. Only 16% bother to contact a realtor.




Screen Capture courtesy of CAR Screen Capture courtesy of CAR

Homes in the San Francisco Bay Area, lead in selling above asking in 2016 (67%). And just south in San Jose, homes sold for a whopping 68% above their purchase prices. These areas are rated as the top cities in the US to invest in real estateSan Jose and San Francisco led California in home price gains, followed by Sacramento and Los Angeles.  San Diego’s not far behind.

Now in 2017, we’ve seen prices fall in most areas of the SF Bay, except San Francisco and Santa Clara. I’m getting calls from Realtors north of SF so it looks like those areas are becoming more affordable options compared to SF which just keeps heating up.

And with home prices staying or rising, the forecast for apartment rentals is high demand and high prices — great news for rental income property investors. Accommodation costs are a significant personal and professional problem for Californians which may never go away.

New Home/Condo Development in SF from Paragon Realty

Looks like developers are gearing up for even greater supply.

newresidentialconstruction-sf Infographic courtesy of Paragon Real Estate Group

Condo-Inventory-Growth_since-1976

Rents_Avg-SF_by-year




Overall, the US homes forecast and the Los Angeles housing predictions and outlook are positive. The introduction of Donald Trump and republican government policies to loosen up restrictions on mortgages and perhaps development land could ease prices, but it may take quite a while. If the economy improves, there could be an additional rush of new workers to the area. Employment outlook: SF now has 547,000 employed people compared to 448,000 during the dot com boom era an increase of 99,000. Lots of high earning renters and buyers.

Need a home loan? Use the mortgage calculator to find out how much you should borrow.

This recently published chart from Zillow reveals the California cities of San Diego, Los Angeles, San Jose, Sacramento, and San Francisco are the most expensive and least affordable places to buy a home.  Combine the stressful commute times in LA, and the Bay Area, and you have a population feeling on edge, uncertain of their long term future. The word rent is one of the foremost ones in the vocabulary of Californians. Only 30% own their own home.

jobschart

Fueling the frenzied demand for San Francisco apartment rentals is a growing affluent and young population whose incomes are rising. San Francisco has the highest apartment rentals prices in the US.

percapitasanfranciso

The national Apartment rental index chart from Apartment list shows how prices have jumped this year across the country.

apartmentlistrates

And the rental apartment rates in San Francisco, San Jose and Los Angeles are in the top ten most expensive. An average apartment for rent in San Francisco will set you back a whopping $4700 per month.

nationalmedianapartmentrentals

The San Francisco Housing Forecast

See this exerpt from rereport.com with quote by California Association of Realtors president Pat Zicarelli:

The C.A.R. forecast sees a modest increase in existing home sales of 1.4 % next year to reach 413,000 units, up slightly from the projected 2016 sales figure of 407,300 homes sold. Sales in 2016 also will be virtually flat at 407,300 existing, single-family home sales, compared with the 408,800 pace of homes sold in 2015.

“Next year, California’s housing market will be driven by tight housing supplies and the lowest housing affordability in six years,” said C.A.R. President Pat “Ziggy” Zicarelli. “The market will experience regional differences, with more affordable areas, such as the Inland Empire and Central Valley, outperforming the urban coastal centers, where high home prices and a limited availability of homes on the market will hamper sales.

As a result, the Southern California and Central Valley regions will see moderate sales increases, while the San Francisco Bay Area will experience a decline as home buyers migrate to peripheral cities with more affordable options.”

The Exodus of Buyers and Renters

Renters used to stay in town, but they are forced ever more into the surrounding countryside along with those who can buy, to search for cheaper places. The commute times for renters and buyers will get much longer and automobile insurance, maintenance and fuel costs will add to their cost of living. Despite a rise in condo developments, buyers are looking far outside San Francisco for a new home.

Where to buy Homes in San Francisco?

newdevelopmentlocations
New Proposed Developments in San Francisco

Wondering what is being developed in San Francisco? SF Curbed has a listing of 26 proposed high rise developments in the works. Check them out in the link at right.

californiapricegrowthThe new developments on Fremont St perhaps carry the most weight for renters with hundreds of units coming available.

The Rincon Hill development is the first neighborhood plan adopted by the SF Planning Commission in more than 10 years. Combined with the Transbay area development, it is a major housing development estimated to create housing for as many as 20,000 new residents. High rise towers in San Francisco? Yes, the Rincon development is for construction of 4 to 8 story buildings, and slender residential towers ranging in heights of 250 to 550 feet. The tallest towers are slated for the top of Rincon Hill, where they will form a distinctive new element on the City’s skyline.

Conclusion on the San Francisco Real Estate Forecast

You’ve read the stats – record high and continuing job growth, huge multinational high tech firms with boatloads of cash, a changing mood toward land and housing development, and a new US president who may be biased toward real estate development. The investment opportunity in SF looks to be as strong as it is anywhere, with the potential of extreme profits on investment. Home flippers, new construction developers, and small builders should find plenty of room for profit if they can get property owners to sell their land.




Is this the right year to buy rental income property?  Find out more about the best investments in 2017 including investing in real estate.

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Gord Collins Los Angeles Real Estate Marketing —  I generate leads for realtors in Los Angeles, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Sacramento, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale, Riverside, Rancho Cucamonga, Costa Mesa, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Oceanside, Long Beach, Huntington Beach, Carlsbad, Santa Clarita, Temecula, Stockton, Palm Springs, Chula Vista, Escondido, Santa Monica, and more. Find a Los Angeles Real Estate Agent who actually wants to work with you.