Lucrative Canadian Real Estate Market Spilling over into the US
Foreign buyers are buying up US properties and the biggest increase is coming from Canadians. Even NAR’s Chief Lawrence Yun was surprised by the growing demand from Canadians given the low Canadian dollar. Yun is quoted in an LA Times report that the high housing prices in Toronto and Vancouver were also behind the movement of investment money to buy US real estate.
Canadians are now the biggest buyers of US real estate at $20 Billion per year next to the Chinese at $31 Billion. There’s no reason to believe it won’t continue right through 2018.
One Toronto real estate agent was quoted as saying buyers are cashing out in Canada and then buying second houses to vacation in the United States, usually in Florida. “The Canadians love your weather. We have more money because of our real estate market here — that’s really the answer.”
Canadian Investment in US Property up 50%
Purchases from foreign buyers in the US has grown 50% in the last year. This is a big trend which US real estate agents should be aware of. The lack of housing supply in the US is putting upward pressure on prices, which perhaps Canadian buyers are hoping to gain from.
Many Canadian and Chinese buyers go online to find suitable investment properties. Is your website visible online? Is it truly engaging for buyers and sellers? Take a good look at these real estate marketing packages to gauge where you should aim your strategy. There’s never been a better time to plan your real estate sales future.
Call me at 416 998 6246 and let’s get your career launched properly.
2018 looks like it’s going to be a more stable period for home prices from Boston to Miami to Los Angeles. Limited residential property, stable employment picture, and rising mortgage rates should keep things in balance in 2018.
What’s dampening that price flame is that prices are too high for Millennials (thus powering up the rental property investment market) and high mortgage rates.
Home prices are anticipated to increase 3.9 percent and existing home sales are forecasted to increase 1.9 percent to 5.46 million homes. Interest rates are expected to reach 4.5 percent due to higher expectations for inflationary pressure in the year ahead — Realtor.com Research
Case-Shiller reported a spate of very positive news regarding the state of the US economy and the housing outlook for 2017 to 2020. Housing is boosted by positive indicators coming from two separate reports published on Trading Economics, include:
US housing starts rose to a 9 year high in October 2017
US consumer sentiment rose to a 6 month high
US durable good orders rose
Job vacancies to fall 500,000 by 2020
US GDP will rise 2 Trillion by 2020
From the chart below, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, building permits, housing starts, home sales, will rise slightly next year and significantly grow to higher levels in 2020. Home prices may rise another 10% by 2020 according to their forecast. Still a good time to look for houses for sale.
Case-Shiller also sees the Fed raising interest rates and that US inflation rate will rise. These estimates may not take into account the intent of the Trump government.
And from a reuters news report on the economy, Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisers is quoted as saying, “Everything seems to be moving in the right direction in the economy … The weak links are recovering and the strengths are staying strong. The Fed is not going to continue doing nothing.” That would mean he expects the Fed to raise interest rates, and that would push the US dollar to further highs.
Overall, it’s a good report that has something for consumers and entrepreneurs and business. Read the full forecast here.
The US housing market 2017 report is positive and this report from the Urban Land institute is positive too. Sure there are variables, especially in different regions and cities across the US, yet a lowered deficit sends a positive message to startups and small businesses that US businesses will have an easier time competing in the US. Looking to invest in rental income property in 2017?
Best Cities to Invest?
Cross reference this compiled list of cities with a previous post on best cities 2017 to invest in rental property. In this chart with data from Realtor.com and Kiplinger, I’ve highlighted what might be the best cities to discuss with your real estate investment advisor. I’m not advising anything, just to point out the advantages of diversifying your investment portfolio to cities that are strong and ones that could become strong.
Cities such as Springfield MA, Sacramento CA, or Detroit might pay off in 2020 to 2025. For rental income, Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, Dallas, San Diego, and Boston might be best picks. It might be a case of the usual suspects, but start here, work your way to the best zip codes and neighborhoods, types of house, employment growth, and migration patterns of Millennials, and you may have yourself a winner (real estate investment). Who knows which cities will rule after 4 years of the Trump overhaul of the US government and US economy?
Average Home Price 2015 – Kiplinger
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
Salt Lake City, UT
San Diego County, CA
Providence-RI Warwick, MA
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI
Greensboro-High Point, NC
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Tampa-St. Petes, FL
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
Boise City, ID
Colorado Springs, CO
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
New Haven-Milford, CT
Kansas City, MO KS
Augusta-Richmond County, GA
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Minneapolis-St Paul, MN
Oklahoma City, OK
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY N.J Pa.
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.
New Orleans-Metairie, LA
El Paso, TX
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC VA
Austin-Round Rock, TX
St. Louis, Mo
Buffalo- Niagara Falls, NY
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL
Little Rock, AK
Des Moines, IA
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
Baton Rouge, LA
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
Chart Data courtesy of Realtor.com and Kiplinger.com
From a report in the Pacific Coast Business Times, Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast is quoted as saying that economic indicators do not point to a recession this year or next.
Nationwide, consumer confidence is near a seven-year high and corporate profits are trending up, which slumped prior to the Great Recession. And even though more people are buying cars and homes, household debt levels are tame, said The current seven-year economic expansion is old but it’s not running on fumes, he said.
Schiepp said “We really don’t have any imbalances or bubble concerns. Therefore, at this time, we don’t see any recession — none. If you were wondering about 2017 and all those blogs and articles (forecasting a recession), well forget about them.” Schniepp spoke to an audience at the Hyatt Regency in Westlake Village LA, during the 2016 Los Angeles County and Ventura County Economic Outlook.
California Homebuyers – Who Understands their Pain?
A little empathy goes a long way. Our clients have hopes, needs, dreams and sometimes a frustrating reality. If you’re a realtor, mortgage agent, home renovator, home developer, building product supplier, or financial services provider, you probably need to get intimate with the pain of home buyers in LA, San Diego, New York, and San Francisco.
Understanding their real lives is a powerful way of connecting way with them online.
In this post, I’m going to help you reach into that emotional realm where they live to build a brand and content strategy that will appeal to them, and make them adore you.
It’s all about empathy (and a little humor). Owning a home is a still strong value in California culture even if fewer feel it’s possible. Donald Trump pointed out how few people own their own home. In Los Angeles, it’s the worst because of limited housing stock and wickedly high prices. This stress and feeling of helplessness is a key thing you can help them with. It has to be dealt with before any of them will buy a home. Trump struck a chord by identifying American’s severe frustrations, but his lack of humor didn’t win everyone over.
5 Key Sources of Frustration:
feeling of falling behind – can’t buy a home the right time or place, have insufficient income, rising debt, and mounting costs they have little control over
life/work balance out of whack and less enjoyment of anything – out of shape and feeling guilty they can’t see the kids or their spouse and family and friends enough
tiredness, lack of sleep, and exhaustion from work and commuting – worries about health that joga and healthy food won’t fix
can’t make enough money and are unable to build equity in their lives – no hope of owning a home and saving money
can’t find a cheaper/better apartment so they can save money and time in order to one day buy a home and start a family
Californians are Pessimistic about Owning a Home
The latest report from Fannie Mae shows the Home Purchase Sentiment Index has dropped significantly across the nation. Even though prospective homebuyer’s incomes are up, it seems they’re more pessimistic than ever. Will the new President Elect Donal Trump come to the rescue as he’s suggested in his campaign promises? We’ll soon see.
Fannie Mae’s 2016 Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased again in October by 1.1 percentage points to 81.7. Overall, the HPSI is down 1.5 points since this time last year.
Only 30% of Americans say now is a good time to buy a home
15% say this is a great time to sell a home (up 4%)
Homebuyers expect mortgage rates to rise
The Theory: According to Fannie Mae, only 34% of California home buyers could afford to purchase the $465,280 median-priced home (in the first quarter of 2016, up from 30% in fourth-quarter of 2015). 41% of home buyers were able to purchase a $389,910 median-priced condo or townhome. An annual income of $77,575 was required to make a monthly payment of $1,939. But if mortgage rates and fuel prices rise, and the economy blips, those numbers will fall.
It’s a seller’s market, particularly in Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco regions. The pessimism of buyers is reflected in their belief as well that home prices will rise and affordability drop, and their stressful commute to work will worsen.
Californians Fight Long Commutes
Only Washington DC commuters suffer a longer daily commute, and now that Donald Trump is going to drain the swamp, LA will likely to rise to the top spot as the toughest commute in the country. L.A. has 6 of the 10 most packed roadways in the country and let’s not forget the heat and smog of driving very slowly on Los Angeles highways.
The pain of a long commute is a headache for a lot of homeowners in LA, SD and SF. Not that new home development will solve the lengthy drives to work. LA may be in the market for more commuter trains. Even California pets get a little edgy behind the wheel!
Where LA Area Workers Are Commuting to
This is such as cool animated gif created by the California Association of Realtors showing LA drivers daily commute.
To purchase fictitious median-priced homes, LA, San Diego, Central Valley or SF Bay Area workers are having to live further away and that’s clogging already congested highways. Does anyone want to drive in from Riverside, Sacramento, Oakland, San Bernardino, Anaheim, or Vista? As this commuter infographic shows, LA drivers need to be innovative to get to work on time.
Here’s an exerpt from the LAist.com regarding perhaps the biggest pain homebuyers have in California: Commuting. And this was several years ago.
“While the numbers are slightly dated, rewinding back to 2006-2010 and 2011, they’re still relevant today. 11.9% of workers ages 16 and over in L.A. County suffered a commute of 60 minutes or more in 2011, which was slightly above the 8.1 national percentage. Another area where L.A. topped the national average was in commute time. The average commute time for county residents was 29.4 minutes in 2011, compared to the nation’s 25.5 minutes.”
Along with the deadly commute is perhaps frustration of needing to move away further from where they want to live. They may resent the relocation and have a negative attitude to their new community, and are more even more tired and stressed when they return home every evening.
In the Los Angeles housing forecast report, we discovered that the commute situation will probably worsen. Will improved highways ease the commuter nightmare? Will cheaper gas prices and electric cars make the pain go away? Will higher wages resolve the problem or make it worse?
Will the California government begin to open up more land to development and provide incentives for companies to move out of LA, San Diego and the Bay Area to ease the commuter problem? Likely not until the next elections bring forth Californian’s smoldering fury. LA and the Bay area have the same growing pains as any other major city, however mass transit actually contributes less as a solution.
Creating Empathy and Giving Compelling Solutions
You can gain a lot in terms of appearing informed about homebuyer’s situation and look to have viable solutions for easing their pain, including finding a home at a great price. It’s important to remember that as a business person online, you are your content. If it’s irrelevant, unresponsive to their pain, and doesn’t appear to offer the solution, they will not only leave, they’ll consider you irrelevant.
10 Vital Topics you should explore on your website:
how to ease commuting stress
how to lower financing costs and find starter homes to build their equity
where to buy a better commuting vehicle
how to find a new job farther away from the city
how to find a great community in rural areas for their kids
how to talk their bosses into telecommuting for at least one day a week
mention local elected officials and what they’re actually doing to ease homebuyers purchasing and traffic congestion and commuting pain
showing homeowners how they can sell their homes for fortunes and find a better life elsewhere
how finding a home in your community with precisely the key features that will make their lives better
how to relax and enjoy their homelife in a distant community
By building content that relates specifically to homebuyer’s pains, and demonstrates concern and solutions, they’ll see you as the most credible professional, someone they will look forward to hearing and doing business with.
Californian’s have plenty of other dreams, pains and frustrations, and perhaps we can research them all and give them some comfort. Researching and writing good content that ranks well in Google and converts like crazy isn’t easy. You’ll need some help!
Gord Collins Los Angeles Real Estate Marketing — I generate leads for realtors in Los Angeles, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Sacramento, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale, Riverside, Rancho Cucamonga, Costa Mesa, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Oceanside, Long Beach, Huntington Beach, Carlsbad, Santa Clarita, Temecula, Stockton, Palm Springs, Chula Vista, Escondido, Santa Monica, and more. Find a LA Real Estate Agent who actually wants to work with you.
The collective agreement called the EU turned out poorly for Britain, and the UK is leaving the union. The British pound dropped with some panicky talk of recession, but we know everything will bounce back. However, without the UK, the EU may itself dissolve. Regardless, I’m excited about working with more UK businesses and look forward to new trade with the UK.
Germany and France will now be inundated with migration issues and be unable to sell to the UK. All this will settle in soon, and perhaps with this enlightenment, the EU will change it’s conditions quickly to hang onto the UK. But if the UK does leave for good, it has waiting friends in North America and Hong Kong, and really, these markets are much more receptive to UK companies.
The UK is a key thread in the fabric of International business, yet the EU’s migration rules are strange. In North America, we have free trade deals, but there’s no way you can just up and move to the US. Even if you have a shovel and dig under the big fence, they’ll put you in jail, and then send you back.
The UK was running a £24B trade deficit with EU countries. How long could that continue?
The UK was way too lenient with immigration and the numbers are staggering. How many countries can handle that level of immigration without bursting at the seams? They all wanted into Britain, not France, Spain, Germany, or the Netherlands.
But is the gloom overdone? Jason Hollands, a spokesman for the investment adviser Tilney Bestinvest, believes so. He said: “The UK stock market is dominated by large international companies, whose performance is not closely linked to domestic UK issues. Markets don’t like uncertainty and there are real risks around. But the Chinese economy, US interest rates and oil-price movements are more significant risk factors.”
No Need for UK Firms to Panic
In North America, we need to do more business with the UK. British firms would find our own market of 360 million consumers a good one to be more involved in. Although Obama has warned the UK it would take 10 years to do anything, incoming president Trump would not stand for delays of that time. It highlights the US’s own coming Brexit-style vote in the fall that will bring dramatic change and a breath of fresh air to business in the US.
Our governments here do need to modernize our agreement with Britain right now, it’s a window of opportunity to build a powerful connection with the UK. If the UK needs a helping hand, we should provide it because the UK is important, and they like us, have good connections with Hong Kong. That 3 way interaction can be very powerful in the realm of international finance and give the UK access to the Pacific Rim.
In 2016, an Ocean isn’t a Barrier to Trade
The UK was open minded about the EU’s rules, but in the end, they were burdened by it all. Regardless of how Brits voted on Brexit, the business and economic challenge is exactly the same as it was one week ago. The UK needed something new. And North America is that something new. The Atlantic isn’t a barrier. It’s the same distance from Boston to San Diego as it is to London.
Surprise, surprise, the US has a 1 billion dollar trade surplus with the UK.
A Stellar Opportunity to Grow Trade with a Non Hostile Country
So Brexit is behind us. We should make more contact with our friends in the UK and begin setting the stage for increased trade and commerce. I’m looking forward to helping my UK client who offer an SaaS online hr software product, eventually build a strong presence in North America and in the UK. And I hope the UK startup community begins looking to the US, China, and Canada for trade and business.
Did you know the Chinese set up a Yuan 2 trillion fund to help startups? Isn’t this what we should be doing? Ask your government to begin assisting small business and facilitating connections to small businesses in the UK. Collectively, we can be a huge force in our economic recovery, and helping the UK finally recover from the 2008 recession.
Incoming President Donald Trump will hopefully speed up trade talks with the UK, whereas outgoing President Obama has been anything but optimistic. Here’s what Trump says he will do for small business:
This lower tax rate cannot be for big business alone; it needs to help the small businesses that are the true engine of our economy. Right now, freelancers, sole proprietors, unincorporated small businesses and pass-through entities are taxed at the high personal income tax rates. This treatment stifles small businesses. It also stifles tax reform because efforts to reduce loopholes and deductions available to the very rich and special interests end up hitting small businesses and job creators as well. The Trump plan addresses this challenge head on with a new business income tax rate within the personal income tax code that matches the 15% corporate tax rate to help these businesses, entrepreneurs and freelancers grow and prosper.
However, small businesses and tech startups need capital, and we know that on a whole, these companies create more jobs. This is money well spent.
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