Toronto Real Estate Forecast 2018 – 2019

Toronto Real Estate Market Forecast/Predictions 2018

April 5, 2018.  The February TREB report isn’t hugely informative, however it does reiterate the downward housing market in Toronto.  The Toronto housing market shrank 39% in March 2018 compared to March of 2017.

Strangely, home prices rose 2.2% vs February, so are we seeing the beginning of the turnaround?  Hope isn’t enough in a repressive market.  Change is needed and it looks like the factors will align this summer.

Although news reports suggest the market is stabilizing, there doesn’t seem to be a bottom in sight yet for luxury homes. They took a precipitous fall this winter. Those who didn’t sell last spring and fall may have been feeling sick all winter long.

Time to Prepare to Sell Your Home or Condo?

The monthly stats below and trends seem to be predicting this may be the best time to sell your home. I’ve predicted a boom after the election, and if we improve our trade agreement with the US, GTA home prices and the Canadian dollar should jump.




Recent reports have it that the City of Toronto could face a $1.4 billion deficit, due to the loss of the lucrative land transfer taxes. Toronto’s starry eyed spending may have to be reeled in thus adding to a cascading recession threat.

A lot of Toronto home buyers are likely cheering the price falls and this spring might be the lowest price point as we head into provincial elections in 2 months and the settling of the NAFTA trade disagreement. Homeowners may decide to hold onto their homes and wait for prices to return after the upcoming provincial election.

For the march report, TREB focused solely on the YoY losses and it is ramping up its election time rhetoric regarding the responsibility of government to foster a healthy housing market. They also believe sales will pick up this summer (post election) but didn’t offer a spring forecast.

Other than stats which you’ll see below, what are the real issues for the GTA market? TREB suggest interest rates and mortgage rules are disouraging home sales. Yet, condo and apartment sales are still strong.

When will prices bottom out? May, June, or next October?

A Change is Coming for Ontario

The real matter for Toronto prices and sales is psychological because the economy is uncertain. Home prices are trending downward strongly, NAFTA is troubled, world leaders are threatening trade tariffs, and the provincial election is coming.

Ontario’s provincial taxes have become crushing and the Liberals have shown no mercy. You have to be genius if you want to be a successful business person here. Yes we’re aging here in Ontario but there’s incredible intellectual capital that’s being wasted. We’ll see more people leave the province even with a new government.

The death throes of the Wynne government show that the people and the business sector can’t tolerate this behaviour and that a new, fresh attitude toward open markets and small business success must happen. If small business is represented in the NAFTA agreement, it could give Ontario a boost it has never seen before.

As Kathllen Wynne’s MPs give up, the wave for the PCs and Doug Ford grows. Screen cap courtesy of Vice.com and CBC

No one can predict what incoming Premier Doug Ford is going to do. Will he toss the market a parachute, open up development and then delete the repressive taxes? We sure hope so. The results for the economy will make news across the and we’ll go from laughing stock to free market leaders.

After the Storm

During uncertain times, buyers will not stick their neck out to purchase a  high priced home in a market rated as the most likely to crash. And theTSX? It’s been the worst performing stock market in the world for some time now. But that could change.

Home prices in Toronto actually rose, yet prices in Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, and Bradford declined strongly again.

TREB Outlook

TREB reiterated its belief in the role of housing and real estate sales in its yearly report . TREB suggests the GTA market is a key to economic health in Ontario.

On average, each residential transaction reported through TREB’s MLS® System in the GTA generates $68,275 in spin-off expenditures, … The real estate industry is a key contributor to our economy, with total annual spin-off expenditures close to $7 billion.

They went further to hint that without real estate sales and the taxes it generates, the government will have to get their tax money elsewhere! Voters may not want to hear that and it’s probably something Doug Ford will jump on to put the finishing nails in Kathleen Wynne’s guilded coffin. I’m sure HGTV will want to support the pro-development initiatives??

Wynne has killed the Toronto housing market, tax base, young people’s dreams, and as an election promise, is offering free day care, which the government will have to borrow to pay for. Wynne’s passing will generate a wave of relief which Doug Ford will surf on for many years.  With a few legislative changes, he could relaunch Ontario’s economy and the Toronto real estate sector.

The March 2018 TREB update reveals the damage to what should have been a strong and vital Toronto real estate market.

Screen capture courtesy of TREBhome.com

Toronto Forecast for 2018

What as the Toronto Real Estate forecast for 2018?  A gloomy winter/spring followed by lots of sunshine in June. All we need is the June sunshine and we got it 100% right.

Why so optimistic against all the negative reports coming out? None of them are accounting for the upcoming election in Ontario.  It’s to soon to celebrate but only 2 short months away, and we may see the boom I sort of suggested might happen:)

This chart from TREB shows the market 2 months ago in January. Numbers of house sales rose last month yet cond sales fell.  Notice condo prices are up $43,000 in March vs January. Keep an eye on the Toronto condo market.




The market seems very quiet right now, and as Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s chief economist said, “This is the most significant test the market has seen in recent years.”




Is this the best time to buy a house in Toronto? The answer to that may be yes. Prices may plummet further in February and March only to begin a strong rise in April. Why? The election in 4 months and the NAFTA fears will have abated.

Selling your home in 2018?  Should you sell your home and upgrade to a roomier one? Or perhaps you’ll be downsizing to a condo?  Condo sales boomed in 2017 and you’ll be competing hard for anything under $600k. Your Realtor will likely have to work a sophisticated marketing strategy to help you get your house sold and get you moved into a better one.

Are you a 25 to 35 year old first time buyer and hoping to buy a condo?  Is this the best time to buy a home? See the Toronto condo market forecast for prices and opportunities.




Is it a good time to buy a condo apartment in Toronto? Which are the best neighborhoods to buy one? Check the Toronto condo market page for insight.

If you’re looking solely for home prices, then see the detailed running home price stats for each town and district. This post has a collection of videos, opinion, stats, charts, of historic sales/prices and current stats to help you with the decision of whether to buy or sell.

The most meaningful Toronto housing market prediction: After a short depressed period this spring, there will be a fast growing increase lead by optimism with the new incoming Ontario government in July. The prediction is that the optimism of the new government will keep buyers and sellers optimistic until July.

With immigration high (300k new Canadians each year), migrants from other parts of Canada increasing, birth rates up, and Ontarian’s expectations optimistic, 2018, 2019 and 2020 will see strong demand for most properties. As you can see in the Toronto market stats below, some towns and districts in the GTA have seen very strong price growth.

Share the Toronto Real Estate Market forecast on FB or Linkedin.

Anyone buying or selling should have the best overview of factors.

 

Teranet Home Prices

Teranet released its market report on home prices in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and other Canadian cities and predictably we saw the final burst of buying before the stress test rules came into play.




Toronto Real Estate December Report

What happened in December 2017: listings up 50% but sales down despite the last minute stress test frenzy.  New housing starts dropped by 33,000 overall in Ontario in December, after a record amount built in November.  Condo apartments and townhouses are all the rage, due to the almost affordable prices.

This recent chart from TREB shown below, reveals prices are still up year over year.

 

 

Check the running Toronto home prices chart down below. Leave a comment below.

In December, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 7.2% over last year, and the overall average selling price was up by 0.7% year over year. — from TREB report.




Check out the Vancouver and Calgary forecasts too as it reflects on Toronto (And Share on Facebook!).




You Can’t be Serious! a Housing Boom in Toronto in 2018/2019? Royal Lepage predicts prices will rise 6.8% or $57,000. Only Las Vegas Nevada is forecast to be higher. With new homes sold and new development halted, supply won’t be sufficient in late 2018 or 2019. Speculators will love that scenario.

Royal Lepage predicts continued price rises even as domestic investors shift to apartments and condos.

Condo Prices Rose 23%

And the danger in the condo market might be the depressing effect of rental controls on new condo builds. As supply dwindles, prices and rents will rise which is positive for condo investors. The average rental price for a 3 bedroom condo in Toronto is now $3461 per month.

Condo prices were up 21% year over year in December.

Detached Home Prices in many Treb districts has plummeted from 18 months. In some cases, prices are down almost 50% as you can see in the charts below.



If the Toronto Real Estate market nosedives in January 2018, it will be interesting to see what impact it has on the Ontario economy as well as the Canadian economic forecast.

While the talk was about rocketing house prices in Toronto, the Toronto condo market is doing okay and the demand for new construction condos is still brisk.

1 Million New Immigrants Will Affect Toronto’s Housing Market Demand

Demand is never ending, in fact PM Justin Trudeau just announced a program to being in 1 million new immigrants over the next 3 years  along with a new national housing program to help with the housing availability crisis which will heat up demand and prices for Toronto apartment rentals.

So while the Ontario and Federal governments play a dangerous game of economic Russian roulette and await their political fate, homebuyers may be finding their homownership dream more distant than ever. It’s certainly not a good time for the homeless in Toront and area with the wicked cold snap coming through.

Will it be crash and burn in Toronto this year? Even the slightest economic slide in Canada could send nasty shockwaves through the housing market. Crashes normally happen after the euphoria period. Despite the government’s negativity toward home development and supply, the market should be good for 2018.

You can view the prices for each city and MLS district below.




TD Bank senior economist Michael Dolega is quoted last month as saying  the market looks good “after some near-term weakness, likely to last into mid-2018, activity should begin to rebound thereafter given the fundamentally supported demand related to strong job growth and strengthening wage dynamics.”

The upcoming mortgage changes in January means buyers are putting rush orders in now. Condos below $500k are selling well and will continue to do in 2018.  The key for Realtors is helping buyers find an affordable condo, or a house with rental income potential.



Rental Income Investment Property

Some smart buyers are looking at financing solutions that give them a shot at rental income. Real estate investors in Toronto, Vancouver and  even Calgary are focused on rental income investment properties. You should be too.

What is the most notable change? It would have to be Toronto condos. Sales dropped by 15% yet condo prices rose by 23% across the GTA.  When the selection of lower priced condos are gone, we’ll see a renewed surge in prices as buyers hunt the luxury market to see what they can get.

Rental prices are skyrocketing as rental apartments dry up because of the rental price controls.  Rents were up 12% more in the 3rd quarter. How much further will Toronto condos climb in price and how long will voters, many of whom are home buyering milennials with nowhere to go, tolerate Wynne and Trudeau?



Are you considering using a HELOC to do a house renovation?  With listings up, you’ll have to have to add some value to get your house sold. An educated Realtor might be a wise hire too.

Bookmark this page as it is updated very frequently.

Normally Toronto house prices slide back during the winter.  That could help solve the afforable housing issue.  Yet the market is 2 tiered – young buyers with limited financing and a rising group of detached houses that are well out of their reach. 2018 should be the year of the condo.  Contrast the Toronto market with the Calgary Housing Forecast for greater investment insight.

November 2017 TREB Market Update with Jason Mercer






Considering buying or selling? Take a look at some of home buying tips and home pricing tips posts and this new post on the best renovations to grow the price of your house for saleFirst Time buyers should remember that house prices always climb even through recessions as you’ll see in the graphics and housing data below.

Some recent reports from Toronto realtors have it that buyers are back in the market this fall, yet there aren’t enough listings. They feel Toronto House prices will rise again. However, buyers are probably gleeful at the drop in house prices over the last 5 months. If it continues, they might be able to find a great buy. The Toronto economy could boom for sometime if NAFTA is unaffected, yet CMHC beleives there are dangers lurking for this market.

New sales data from TREB’s Marketwatch report paints a telling story of what happened in Toronto Real Estate in the summer of 2017 and how 2018/2019 might look.  Buyers and sellers are wondering if the Toronto housing picture will mirror the Vancouver real estate forecast where Vancouver condos are king.  Vancouver seems to have held its own which means the Toronto market might be safe too.  Let’s not kid ourselves. A crash or a housing slide in Toronto remains a possibility (government).

Consider this your most up to date report on the Toronto Real Estate Market – lots of food for thought below. Enjoy the monthly price charts below which may help you decide whether it’s time to sell your house.  Also see the Mississauga real estate forecast if you’re out in Mississauga, Milton, Oakville or Brampton.

Do you know anyone who may be buying or selling?

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New Fed mortgage rules and a higher mortgage rate means buyers will need more money down and be forced to pay higher mortgage payments. The OECD and the World Bank are constantly nattering about Canada’s housing issues. What are they seeing that we don’t?

Most experts are calling for flat prices right through 2018, however there is still a lot of unsold new home inventory and governments are clear in their intent to suppress the housing market. Those considering putting up their houses for sale might be acting much sooner.

When Will You Put up your House for Sale?

Before it was all about finding a house for sale, and now there’s lots of houses for sale. It’s almost certain you’re going to get a much lower price for your GTA house in the next 4 months. As mentioned, the PCs will reconsider how the Liberal’s botched the housing crisis and how they might fix it.

That will change the market psychology. As soon as you and other buyers have somehwere to go, you’ll be putting your home up for sale. If you get prepared this winter and spring, you might hit it right before your neighbors sell theirs.

You’ll want to start reading my how to sell your home tips posts and a little on over asking bidding wars because even right now, multiple offers are still common.

The Toronto situation seems to mirror the US housing forecast only with troublesome government meddling in TO. Experts suggest it is government action that causes the markets to suddenly slide out of control.

Toronto Housing Market Predictions from the Experts

Let’s start off with the Swiss Banks review.

Is BNN’s “end of the housing boom” story valid? Does real estate drive employment in Canada?

CMHC keeps the red flag hoisted on real estate

Trump and squashed Canadian exports represent a big worry.




 

New MLS stats from TREB show sales in August dropped 34.8% year over year and the number of new listings on TREB’s MLS® System, at 11,523 which is  6.7 % lower than last year at his time. This is the fewest listings since 2010.  Prices did decline yet are still higher than August of 2016, and did not decrease evenly in all TREB districts.   




While some areas such as the 905 have seen big drops, (houses are sitting and have to be rented now) areas in Toronto have maintained prices.  These neighbourhoods offer a more reliable bet for sustainable property investment value. Many property investors have discovered the hard way, what the word sustainable means in bottom line dollar terms. Because of demand, two hot areas right now are rental property investment and student housing investment.

Adding to the story this month is a higher loonie, higher mortgage rates, foreign buyer withdrawal, new tax on vacant homes, and homebuyers losing interest. And in response, homeowners make a desperate attempt to sell at lower home prices. 

Condos were the Hot Story in Summer 2017

  • condo average price up over half a million dollars
  • condo prices have risen 28% from second quarter of 2016
  • average condo price in Toronto rose to $566,000
  • condo sales volume dropped 8%
  • number of new listings grew only 1%
  • condos in C09 district rose to an average selling price of $1.345 million
  • Condos in C08 and C01 have the highest volume of unit sales and an average price of $603,000 and $627,000 respectively — high volume translates to more availability and lower prices

The Best Toronto Neighbouhoods are Sound for Investment

TREB stats show specific districts or neighbourhoods in Toronto have not seen a price decline and these ones below have seen price increases:

w10 – Rexdale Kipling, West Humber Claireville, Kingsview Village, Vaughan Grove
w09 – Willowridge Martingrove Richview, Humber Heights
w02 – High Park North, Junction Area, Kingsway South
c02 – Annex, University, Yonge St Clair
c04 – Bedford Park, Nortown, Lawrence Park North, Forest Hill North, Lawrence Park South
c12 – Lawrence Park North, St. Andrew Windfields
c13 – Banbury Don Mills, Parkwoods Donalda, Victoria Village
c15 – Bayview Village, Hillcrest Village, Bayview Woods Steeles, Pleasant View
e01 – South Riverdale, North Riverdale, Danforth, Woodbine Corridor
e06 – Oakride, Clarilea Birchmount, Birchcliffe, Cliffside

Many of these Toronto neighbourhoods are in such strategic locations for employment, that given the housing shortage, urban intensification, poor transit and roadways, that the condos and homes in them will never see a significant price drop. The events of the last 3 months with the Liberal’s fair housing act was an acid test. These Toronto neighbourhoods look to be the best neighbourhoods for safe real estate investment.




US investors should continue to follow the Toronto real estate market as the low Canadian dollar continues to create better real estate investment value.

The Toronto Condo market in July on the other hand is active likely due to affordability. Condos are selling well at 2% to 6% over asking price and comprised 91% of all sales. New apartment and stacked townhouse sales grew 89% year over year, compared to a 72% drop in house sales. 

I suspect 2018 will bring moderation given the rhetoric around the NAFTA deal, tighter lending rules, higher loonie, and very high home prices. 

 

Share the December 2017 Stats and Toronto Forecast with your family and friends on Facebook

Almost everyone is interested in the direction of the housing market. It affects the GTA economy, jobs and business oulook.  This page is updated frequently.

 

A Look Back at 6 Months ago: TREB June 2017 Real Estate Report

Highlights from the June TREB market report at the end of the bubble:

  • Sales dropped 37% year over year, on top of May’s whopping 50% dive
  • residential listings were up 16%
  • Prices rose 6.3%
  • The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price up by 25.3% on a year-over-year basis in June
  • Home prices are down 1.1% month to month
  • apartment prices rose 1% month to month (higher rents)

What’s Compelling about the Toronto Housing Market?

Toronto is a high value housing market similar to New York City or the Bay Area of California, and TO is a city destined to be a super city.  It’s unlikely that a property purchase in Toronto will be a disappointment over the long run. If you see the Toronto home price charts, you’ll notice that prices have climbed in the last 18 months. So buyers have not lost their equity.

And detached house prices will rise much further due to a severe housing shortage, improving economy, and rising population. 

Despite the Ontario government’s new foreign buyers tax threat, demand for housing won’t fall. As the loonie falls in value, Toronto home prices turn out to be reasonable internationally, and may be a worthy investment for rising wealthy Americans. Canadian real estate is still a good alternative to US Real Estate in 2018.

While many buyers would like to live in Central Toronto, Oakville and Milton the prices in these cities is prohibitive. Instead, buyers are looking north to Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Bradford, Barrie, Innisfil, and East Gwillimbury.




Share this detailed monthly home prices report with your friends.



Toronto MLS Real Estate Board Sales Stats for March 2018

Average Toronto Home Price – Detached Homes TREB – March 2018
City March 2018 December 2017 November 2017 October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 April 2016 Price Change Last 23 months Price Change Last 8 Months
Burlington $993,500 $959,071 $871,879 $895,457 $974,446 $944,564 $961,502 3.3% 5.2%
Halton Hills $852,500 $820,904 $790,683 $787,517 $706,500 $984,812 $828,719 2.9% -13.4%
Milton $868,300 $843,688 $841,998 $884,144 $853,790 $866,650 $765,973 13.4% 0.2%
Oakville $1,298,000 $1,356,888 $1,438,656 $1,482,620 $1,393,860 $1,314,363 $1,191,503 8.9% -1.2%
Brampton $796,600 $763,814 $776,280 $775,170 $766,132 $766,831 $660,015 20.7% 3.9%
Caledon $1,002,000 $1,185,182 $1,001,753 $952,466 $918,712 $1,028,591 $755,494 32.6% -2.6%
Mississauga $1,760,000 $1,140,965 $1,060,211 $1,034,338 $1,023,207 $1,066,015 $966,467 82.1% 65.1%
Toronto West $1,099,000 $1,039,022 $1,016,076 $1,102,379 $1,015,711 $919,916 $944,422 16.4% 19.5%
Toronto Central $2,100,000 $2,070,131 $2,109,070 $2,051,481 $2,302,146 $2,113,130 $1,983,187 5.9% -0.6%
Toronto East $969,000 $894,290 $889,002 $931,239 $961,805 $887,620 $860,814 12.6% 9.2%
Aurora $1,118,500 $1,033,353 $1,249,613 $1,280,888 $1,458,481 $1,144,094 $1,155,487 -3.2% -2.2%
E Gwillimbury $865,000 $769,624 $763,071 $1,013,350 $895,119 $966,047 $764,055 13.2% -10.5%
Georgina $526,700 $619,105 $542,792 $524,735 $600,791 $604,838 $548,886 -4.0% -12.9%
King $1,727,600 $2,129,286 $1,889,738 $1,887,696 $2,252,933 $1,768,333 $1,283,432 34.6% -2.3%
Markham $1,272,600 $1,497,330 $1,342,508 $1,468,221 $1,358,328 $1,319,860 $1,363,887 -6.7% -3.6%
Newmarket $854,600 $879,151 $946,465 $916,350 $895,191 $901,055 $841,593 1.5% -5.2%
Richmond Hill $1,400,000 $1,365,373 $1,526,836 $1,345,898 $1,401,922 $1,466,884 $1,412,443 -0.9% -4.6%
Vaughan $1,238,800 $1,245,480 $1,236,250 $1,280,906 $1,392,781 $1,348,649 $1,191,632 4.0% -8.1%
Whitchurch Stouffville $1,289,000 $970,236 $1,058,486 $928,551 $1,159,545 $1,024,941 $1,048,658 22.9% 25.8%
Ajax $700,000 $690,333 $710,440 $684,011 $696,604 $708,185 $646,370 8.3% -1.2%
Brock $570,800 $408,757 $445,829 $432,318 $513,579 $508,615 $419,758 36.0% 12.2%
Oshawa $559,900 $532,813 $524,422 $516,459 $516,904 $550,677 $467,981 19.6% 1.7%
Pickering $846,000 $812,035 $840,592 $790,733 $869,546 $812,643 $772,399 9.5% 4.1%
Scugog $697,000 $689,250 $726,898 $614,678 $594,062 $719,375 $545,804 27.7% -3.1%
Uxbridge $858,500 $720,557 $771,521 $1,031,295 $957,221 $792,233 $798,749 7.5% 8.4%
Whitby $718,300 $698,110 $669,922 $695,352 $745,222 $733,811 $618,032 16.2% -2.1%
Orangeville $585,500 $562,020 $575,349 $538,518 $594,636 $612,974 $490,825 19.3% -4.5%
Innisfil $644,600 $561,716 $599,443 $525,685 $541,274 $549,492 $476,756 35.2% 17.3%

Stats above courtesy of TREB Market Watch Report

A Look at Detached House Prices in Toronto’s MLS Districts

Toronto House Prices — MLS City Districts Home Price Comparison
TREB District City of Toronto Avg Price December 2017 Avg Price November 2017 Avg Price October 2017 Avg Price Sept Avg Price August Average Price April 2016 Avg Price April 2017 Avg Price Mar 2017 Price Change Since March 2017
Toronto W01 $1,639,475 $1,269,500 $1,709,593 $1,652,600 $1,146,500 $1,405,442 $1,506,333 $1,543,961 6.2%
Toronto W02 $1,403,750 $1,256,500 $1,273,391 $1,280,867 $1,172,250 $1,331,780 $1,538,546 $1,381,945 1.6%
Toronto W03 $701,000 $774,021 $741,391 $771,142 $692,125 $666,904 $854,316 $829,396 -15.5%
Toronto W04 $799,973 $819,469 $840,110 $850,621 $846,775 $786,951 $1,024,908 $1,073,531 -25.5%
Toronto W05 $826,750 $800,063 $874,660 $805,031 $823,767 $749,333 $930,876 $1,073,531 -23.0%
Toronto W06 $1,010,600 $914,017 $922,286 $992,023 $797,392 $795,840 $974,420 $1,128,584 -10.5%
Toronto W07 $1,200,571 $1,086,386 $1,474,725 $1,277,336 $973,250 $1,112,233 $1,484,406 $1,352,042 -11.2%
Toronto W08 $1,317,240 $1,378,995 $1,356,671 $1,247,374 $1,161,882 $1,204,013 $1,544,869 $1,610,163 -18.2%
Toronto W09 $1,005,500 $886,872 $975,778 $922,000 $1,139,211 $839,479 $1,197,627 $1,115,970 -9.9%
Toronto W10 $717,539 $691,261 $688,011 $661,357 $665,268 $613,488 $831,579 $802,909 -10.6%
Toronto C01 $1,412,000 $1,597,750 $1,393,875 $1,430,667 $1,005,000 $1,528,085 $1,646,240 $1,694,333 -16.7%
Toronto C02 $3,730,000 $2,109,010 $2,313,611 $2,242,400 $2,242,750 $1,580,181 $2,710,038 $2,170,853 71.8%
Toronto C03 $1,374,437 $2,327,333 $1,880,584 $1,742,200 $1,317,111 $1,761,787 $2,246,734 $2,473,608 -44.4%
Toronto C04 $2,237,414 $2,204,173 $2,220,546 $2,212,838 $2,200,398 $2,033,140 $2,583,667 $2,245,813 -0.4%
Toronto C06 $1,147,545 $1,293,688 $1,243,727 $1,327,467 $1,445,556 $1,318,750 $1,625,779 $1,811,183 -36.6%
Toronto C07 $1,693,958 $1,609,066 $1,741,987 $1,903,632 $1,776,771 $1,657,822 $2,004,585 $2,155,365 -21.4%
Toronto C09 $2,410,000 $3,538,371 $3,414,450 $2,916,750 $3,500,000 $2,998,401 $3,246,445 $4,481,000 -46.2%
Toronto C10 $2,375,000 $1,856,406 $1,807,154 $1,747,079 $1,473,125 $1,864,333 $1,945,104 $1,786,091 33.0%
Toronto C11 $1,807,500 $2,344,375 $1,895,636 $2,137,000 $1,547,000 $1,542,867 $2,275,117 $2,201,462 -17.9%
Toronto C12 $4,213,580 $3,729,125 $3,775,636 $5,160,518 $3,910,000 $3,141,244 $3,969,281 $4,420,370 -4.7%
Toronto C13 $2,002,400 $1,342,464 $1,520,151 $2,110,709 $1,788,465 $1,926,266 $2,606,111 $2,108,137 -5.0%
Toronto C14 $1,802,222 $2,235,856 $2,001,750 $2,249,879 $3,055,823 $1,996,137 $2,554,047 $2,673,112 -32.6%
Toronto C15 $1,915,292 $1,587,250 $1,944,667 $1,832,921 $1,602,033 $1,766,219 $2,144,120 $2,108,137 -9.1%
Toronto E01 $1,319,250 $1,102,667 $1,135,156 $1,196,542 $1,224,440 $1,164,343 $1,747,894 $1,206,359 9.4%
Toronto E02 $1,188,324 $1,457,515 $1,494,639 $1,625,074 $1,414,357 $1,333,475 $1,458,167 $1,507,090 -21.2%
Toronto E03 $1,008,987 $913,430 $1,023,487 $1,038,377 $956,448 $947,611 $1,099,537 $1,121,847 -10.1%
Toronto E04 $765,124 $777,377 $768,002 $794,523 $772,883 $717,890 $897,304 $889,018 -13.9%
Toronto E05 $929,943 $899,419 $1,019,362 $979,800 $995,190 $991,136 $1,249,824 $1,303,892 -28.7%
Toronto E06 $855,347 $822,917 $766,159 $926,615 $841,995 $766,782 $1,051,918 $1,102,286 -22.4%
Toronto E07 $888,969 $911,018 $897,653 $1,025,444 $922,600 $874,280 $1,164,819 $1,142,611 -22.2%
Toronto E08 $969,634 $930,974 $1,014,526 $852,070 $872,641 $810,560 $1,066,868 $1,092,667 -11.3%
Toronto E09 $752,919 $714,451 $739,871 $690,382 $699,646 $664,378 $855,363 $895,417 -15.9%
Toronto E10 $882,733 $821,381 $897,856 $944,666 $883,852 $821,126 $1,067,925 $1,069,906 -17.5%
Toronto E11 $666,136 794,238 $758,288 $778,100 $780,618 $720,672 $842,414 $851,750 -21.8%

 

Huge new housing developments in Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, and Vaughan are still selling well, but the market in the 905 area code has cooled. That means bargains are waiting.

Will 2017 Sales in Toronto be a New Record?

2016 was a record year for home sales in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Newmarket, Bradford and Aurora areas in 2017 could well be even more intense.  

One district in Toronto saw its prices rise $1 million since Sept! See TREB charts below.

TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®.  Their outlook for the Toronto region was 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.

But what drives the Toronto housing market? Will it succumb to the same fate as Vancouver or worse?   If you’re a buyer, you’re wondering which neighbourhoods and towns to focus on and whether this market will tank. If you’re a seller, you’re wondering if you’re going to miss the biggest payday of your life by not selling. If you’re close to retirement, you may want to carefully review your choice not to sell. 2017 is a grand time for you to sell and move onto a better life.

The 16 Key Factors Driving The 2017 Toronto Housing Market:

  1. severe shortage of housing stock in the GTA region
  2. rising demand from buyers who have been renting
  3. restrictions on development land for housing
  4. Trump and NAFTA free trade deal and implications for Toronto’s automakers
  5. will the low dollar continue?
  6. will oil prices stay at current levels?
  7. rising numbers of millennials hunting for a home or condo
  8. bank of mom and dad continues funding kids home dream
  9. rising interest/mortgage rates
  10. Toronto and Ontario land transfer taxes
  11. rates of employment and income
  12. asian and persian home buyers and investors rush over?
  13. will China curtail its outflow of investment money?
  14. business investment in Ontario continues falling
  15. consumer debt loads and credit ratings
  16. further federal restrictions on first time buyers/downpayments
  17. commuting distances and new construction in York region and Vaughan

 

A look Bak at Toronto Home Prices for June 2017

This graphic courtesy of TREBhome.com illustrates how hot Toronto homes prices had been for each type of housing. (See the Toronto Condo market outlook too).

Sharing is Good for Your Social Health!

The Toronto real estate market is in a precarious state.  Help your friends and contacts who may be wondering if now is the right time to sell, before the housing crash. You can get your price in 2018.




How about the US? Different story for them. The US real estate market is ripe with opportunity with a minimal chance of a housing bubble or crash.

And from this telling graphic above, the shocking rise and fall of detached home prices tells us something is wrong with the Toronto real estate market. Could a Toronto housing crash occur? The renegotiation of the NAFTA deal may be the factor that starts the slide.  President Trump’s goal is US jobs and economic health and he’s already stated he wants a better deal with Canada. It makes sense that he would want auto makers and parts manufacturing to be done in the US. The Canadian dairy and lumber industries are just a distraction.

If there was ever a time to sell your home, this is it. Some have sold $1 Million over Asking.




Investment Rentals are Big Money — How About Rental Income Property?

Are you going to buy rental income property as an investment in 2018?  Check out cities in the US where there is a much better upside in profit. The US economy and housing market will be the top performer in 2017/18.

torontoforsale
Image courtesy of CBC — Hot Toronto Market Means Spending More

What do your realtor and local politicians say is happening in your local market in Toronto, Mississauga, Vaughan, Oakville, and York Region?  What’s their forecast? I’d like to know.

As we progress to 2018, emotions are going to run high as the critical factors you can read about below become intense. Could the Toronto economy collapse if home prices fall 20% (loss of taxes for governments among other fallout).

Below is an updated look at the March real estate market in the GTA. Recent trends show home prices are rising faster than any experts predicted. Will this be the excuse the government is looking for to upend the market? Or is demand for single detached homes simply too strong?

Government Values at Odds with the People and their Pocketbooks

Are the all too predictable actions of governments in Vancouver and Toronto foretelling what may happen in US markets such as Los Angeles, New York, Miami, and San Francisco? Is the battle over and treatment of land in all major urban areas simply an artificial means of inflating real estate prices or is there actually a land crisis?

If the Ontario government decreases available land for development, drives prices way up causing public furor thereby requiring draconian measures, will it end in a crash in late 2017? Will someone create a crisis to force a crash? We should be asking these questions if we’re investing or buying.

Scarcity of land is the primary driver of high prices in the Toronto real estate market. The biggest threat is unwise government manipulation.

BMO’s senior economist Benjamin Tal said in a Toronto Star report on October 14th, the Ontario Government’s Places to Grow program was primarily responsible for the fast rising prices in the GTA market. He also suggests other red tape factors worsened the situation. Prices in Newmarket, Markham, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Bradford East Gwillimbury and Aurora have definitly crashed.

If land scarcity is driving prices up, then even a 15% foreign buyers tax and new mortgage rules for millennial buyers may not be enough to cool demand for housing or condos. The real factor may be the next recession, fueled by housing market mismanagement.

 

Please send this blog post onto your friends and neighbours because they should know as much about the Toronto area forecast factors as possible before they buy or sell.  It’s good to be helpful. Mistakes are painful.

March 2017 Price Index from Teranet – Index climbed right into August. October reports coming soon. Screenshot courtesy of housepriceindex.com.

What are the Causes of High Home Prices in Toronto?

The major factors that drive housing demand growth to Toronto: immigrant investors, better economy, low interest rates, increasing numbers of buyers in their home home buying years (millennials), and optimism all look on the upswing.  As mentioned in the Los Angeles Real Estate forecast post, here are the key factors that affect home prices:

Housing Demand – High overall demand – “all cash bidding wars” in some cases

Housing Supply – Throttled, supply is far from what’s needed

Developable Land – Throttled by government which is the single biggest factor

Builder Red Tape – Builders can’t build even if they have funding – high exposure to financial loss

Mortgage Rates – Continuing Low, especially in light of global economic slackening and with recent tightened lending rules

Down Payment and mortgage rules – these are being tightened this taking some pressure off of the purchase market and re-routing it to the rental market (people have to live somewhere)

Toronto Region Employment – moderate and remaining moderate despite Federal infrastructure

Taxes – rising quickly due to Ontario government and federal government spending

Buyer Income – moderate and not rising much

Home or Condo Prices – High and rising fast – out of reach for most buyers

Demographics – Millennials coming into family and home buying years and must begin to acquire their own living space

Number of Renters – increasing fast because of tight mortgage lending rules

New Home Construction: limited because of Green Spaces Act, but is a source of supply

Economic-Foreign Trade – Canada struggling and Free Trade agreements now being scrutinized because they don’t see to be working like they used to

Taxes on Sale of Home – huge tax burden for those selling in the city of Toronto

Some point to the Ontario government’s Places to Grow intensification plan as the major culprit in skyrocketing single detached home prices. Toronto condo prices haven’t risen like house prices have, yet condo demand is usually not spoken much about. It does look like a growing population want house to live in. A growing millennial family would certainly find it tough to live in highrise condos designed for adult living.

Share this post with your friends and clients. Everyone should know about the housing crisis factors and the economic spinoff from the Toronto Real Estate Market. It’s good and bad, but they should know the factors and help in the solution.

News posts in the Financial Post, Toronto Star, Globe & Mail, CTV, CBC etc, is often based on varied expert opinions and a few isolated market factors.  Why don’t we look at all the factors that comprise a realistic Toronto housing market outlook for 2017.

What are the Trends in Toronto Real Estate and New Housing?

Toronto Home Prices Historical
The only drop in Toronto home prices took place in 2008, in lieu of the great recession. Graphic courtesy of the Financial Post

ontarioeconomicforecast

ontarioconsumption

mortgage-rates-2006to2016

I’ve heard a number of convincing arguments for both a bubble and an extended period of growth in new housing development and resale housing price growth in Toronto. And I’ve heard before that money from China has no effect on the market, and from others, that today’s real estate market is driven by Chinese money. The banks and CREA just can’t get their stories straight and the media doesn’t report on how badly their forecasts were off the mark in previous years.

Was it All Driven by Chinese Buyers?

Fully 10% of new condominiums being built in central Toronto were going to foreign buyers, according to a survey released in April by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); veterans of the city’s rough-and-tumble real estate market believe the vast majority are mainland Chinese investors  10% doesn’t seem like a big number and we’re told that Chinese buyers are only interested in luxury priced properties.

TREB’s own survey found that foreign buyers actually had little effect on the market, and it was the chilling effect of the fair housing act that destroyed what was a health Toronto real estate market.

foreignownership-toronto-cma
Graphic and data courtesy of CMHC

Strangely, CREA is forecasting a marked slowdown in housing start for 2017 to a flat market for Toronto, Mississauga and Vancouver. But they admit the market is still very intense. In fact, in my town, sold over-asking price stickers are on almost every sold sign. There’s not just a few bids on these homes, sometimes there are a lot. It would take a serious economic recession or government action to get rid of all those buyers. Given how troubled our economy still is, in Ontario, it’s unlikely any government would push it into recession.

If you can sell a new house for $600,000 or a Condo for $300,000, why wouldn’t developers be building as many as they can? With economic factors supporting growth, the problem must be political. A quick look at Ontario’s urban intensification plan might show us where the real core of the housing availability crisis and fueling high rent and housing prices.

A quick look at the US housing forecast and a small market forecast for San Diego tells you that the Americans are enjoying moderate growth now and all the way to 2020. That will help carry us.

In a low oil price world, the Toronto and Vancouver economies have benefited and that has to be the key factor.  And we haven’t benefited much because manufacturing jobs didn’t come back. In fact, even with the low loonie, jobs still moved to Mexico and China.

Expert Asks; Can You Believe Anything from Anyone Anymore?

We were told by the experts that the boom is only being experienced in Vancouver and Toronto, but the graph below tells a different story. If the US economy picks up, we could see all Canadian cities heating up.

Housing Demand Toronto Vancouver Montreal Calgary

The Usual Suspects?  Government

The upcoming jump in downpayment for mortgages will only hurt first time buyers who will still have to rent a condo or home somewhere, if they can afford it. There’s word the BC government may levy taxes against unoccupied homes and they’ve talked about harassing investors (background checks).  Of course, BC just levied the 15% foreign buyer tax and caught many unwary buyers offguard, resulting in extra costs of over $100,000 for some. That’s what happens when government starts meddling in markets – they don’t work anymore.

Ontario’s Urban Intensification Act appears to be colliding head on with the Greenbelt expansion plans by intensifying growth near the greenbelt areas and at the same time shrinking available land. Is this a wise move at a time of fragile yet positive economic growth?

Houses for Sale in the Sizzling Hot GTA Market

Housing markets such as Vaughan, York Region, and Central Toronto heated up considerably in 2017 and more people moving to these municipalities. No one looked at Aurora real estate in past years, but new housing developments, great lifestyle, along with a very limited supply of land within the town means speculators will be jumping on the bandwagon. Days on market for Aurora homes was down to 10 last spring — only Oshawa homes sold that fast, and for over asking price.

Homebuyers are willing to look beyond the green spaces belt, but they’ll look at Aurora, Bradford, Stouffville, and Newmarket first before heading north. The pressure from Toronto, Chinese, and Mississauga buyers should put much upward pressure on these regions.

 

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The Future of Real Estate | AI Blockchain Software Cryptocurrency Bitcoin and the Housing Market 2018

The Future of Real Estate

While housing markets in US cities waffle back and forth between market crash and price peaks, homebuyers, property investors and Realtors are wondering what real estate will look like in 5 to 10 years time.

Courtesy of Pinterest — kevin-miller-0125.blogspot.com

In this post, we look at the future of real estate technology (Fintech and Proptech). If you’re a homebuyer considering buying a house, these changes affect how fast you can buy and sell, and how your gain could be thousands of dollars.

When is All This Happening?

Changes are here now. Realtors and Brokerages will have to alter their roles and value proposition to add new value rather than being transaction facilitators, and find new opportunities that are appearing. New tech brokers have already arrived but they don’t have it all figured out yet.

When usage hits whats called critical mass, that’s when real estate businesses will adopt it completely as the new standard. It’s about more than blockchain in real estate alone.

Of course there’s resistance to new tech such as blockchain and bitcoin in real estate. Blockchain is tranformative. Yet when someone like rexmls lost $1.3 million mistakenly sending cryptocurrency to the wrong address, we know there is risk all round.




Realtors, investors, lawyers, mortgage agents, title/escrow people, and homebuyers are about to see the real estate exchange and financing business streamlined.

For instance, it’s estimated that 50% of major corporations will switch to blockchain business technology this year. Blockchain by itself is rocking every industry including real estate.

I’ll introduce blockchain and bitcoin below in more detail. In a nutshell, blockchain is the software platform that’s underneath Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin is well known, it’s actually blockchain that has the best potential for all industries.  For some of us, this change is exciting. Change means opportunity.

I know you’re curious about Bitcoin cryptocurrrencies and blockchain, but understanding them technically is really tough. You don’t need to be an expert, but you may want to know what is driving this coming change.




2018 Housing Market Reports

Check out the Sacramento Housing Market, San Francisco housing market, Los Angeles Housing Market and Florida housing market forecasts.

The Blockchain Opportunity

Instead of being threatened by the progress to digital real estate via blockchain and other technology, Realtors, lawyers, investors, builders, property managers and mortgage agents should welcome the opportunity of this new era.

Here’s a small list of blockchain startups that have jumped at it.

And the key opportunity might be in first mover advantage. Realtors might redesign their brokerage to utilize RETS IDX listings, AI driven marketing, and blockchain-based transactions.  It’s early, but the right time to learn.




What’s coming is an era of weakening monopolies, greater efficiencies and perhaps lower home prices.

You can imagine how the establishment would like to maintain the old paper-based, complicated transaction process that allows the banks and big real estate brokerages to guarantee their cut of this $116 Trillion dollar global real estate market.



New tech entrepreneurs relish usurping the dominant role in an entire, lucrative industry. They’re motivated. The high rising price of bitcoin should tell you that something big is brewing. They’re already at it in real estate.

Real estate sales using Bitcoin or Ethereum are adding legitimacy to the use of cryptocurrencies in the real world” — Manuel Perez of the Coral Gables, Fla.-based Elizabeth Perez Team. Screen Capture courtesy of Housing Wire

What’s Driving the Push to Blockchain and AI?

The real cause of this future is the high cost of real estate, monopolies, and the over-complicated/regulated process that real estate professionals must follow to buy and sell homes. It raises prices and slows transactions. And younger consumers don’t like the ring of “million dollar homes.”  They like this new technology because they think it will save them money.

From smart contracts to Bitcoin currency to fractional ownership, and artificial intelligence driven buying and selling, the entire real estate industry is about to be streamlined. From finance to construction, blockchain technology in particular is about overwrite the sector. Real Estate will be hard to recognize.

But can the big companies control blockchain to keep the market to themselves? That’s very unlikely since blockchain opens everything up to innovation, transparency, ease of purchase, and lower costs. Buyers will find that very hard to ignore, as will real estate professionals. The smart Realtors will be on this now, to give themselves an advantage in branding and expertise.

Realtors may not have to be blockchain experts, they can use the myriad of blockchain applications and services that will be available. It could be a period of entrepreneurship and creativity for Realtors, and for home buyers and sellers as well.



Who Guards the Status Quo?

Brokers, marketing, banking, retail agents and others facing sudden disruption may enjoy their monopoly and legal power to keep the old system intact.

This new wave of well funded cryptocurrency, blockchain and Realtech startups change the game and playing field. The new blockchain based system is a completely new approach to transferring ownership of property from one party to another. With Cryptocurrency, the banks, mls associations, forex companies, and others could be completely bypassed.

Even the mortgage industry is seeing new startups that offer reduced costs, fees and fraud, and improved efficiency, speed, and transparency.

 

Sharing is Good for your Social Life — Make Sure others get an introduction to the new technology on FB or Linkedin

Change from Many Directions and It’s Just Starting

The future of real estate will see disruption from many sources, technological, cultural, financial, and political.

The $36 Trillion US real estate industry is pressured by issues of complexity, affordability, frustrated demand, housing development restriction, rising interest rates, competition, big data, blockchain, and more. They’ll all play a role in a complicated forecast amidst an uncertain economic outlook beyond 2020.

Will you be buying your next home via an app using Bitcoin? Should you even buy a home, or rent? It’s not only about techno changes in 2018. The future of real estate involves lifestyle, economic, and investment factors.




Will Realtors and Financier’s Roles Change?

While removing the middleman might be the uber utopia for tech-obsessed 20-Somethings hoping for a price break on a million dollar house, it will not be easy to push big banks, MLS’s, state govnernments, and real estate companies out of the future of real estate. Politics, law, habit, and need for expertise will ensure Realtors don’t fade away too quick.

Propy is a new blockchain based online brokerage serving the world

Realtors, MLS associations, and big brokers control the mls data and in this day age data monopoly is how you eliminate competition or gain monopolies.

A number of tech driven competitors are disrupting and trying to weaken the current megalopoly in real estate markets. Thus far they haven’t been able to land a decisive blow. Big Data may be the weapon to topple the traditional system unless the big brokerages learn to utilize it somehow.

Technology driven companies such as Zoocasa, Zillow, and Compass are growing fast and making inroads on various MLS and Realtor competitors. The fact that the majority of Realtors have few listings or sales and aren’t well supported by the big brand brokerages means these tech companies have opportunity with their own hungry masses of agents. The fact the big brokerages don’t share information with agents now, tells you that Realtors would jump ship quick.

And for consumers, a reduction of commissions and expansion of marketing capabilities means consumers might gain from new tech entrants. And in terms of streamlining, it’s estimated that closings could be reduced to 10% of their current duration.

Yet the MLS associations and brokers hold a lot of data and can keep it out of the hands of real estate startups. Legal battles are raging, but the MLS’s aren’t winning the wars.

Propify, an Australian startup, hopes to leverage the technology into a one-stop shop for home buyers. Drawing from various listing sites, governmental databases and social media, the software company aggregates all available information about available properties into a single space, sourced from a blockchain – from Real Estate Weekly.

Who Owns Big Data?

Big Data is owned by big tech, finance and retail companies right now and the battle over who gets access is being waged. The data is so important, it stands to reason that a few companies would not be permitted by government to own it or leverage it for massive monopolistic wealth. However, that conceivably could happen in the Amazon era.

If everything from finance, real estate to AI driven robots, having it locked and controlled by any money hungry company could bring the system and economy to halt. Big data and open source access will have to be made a basic freedom.

For that reason, how could the NAR or MLS or anyone hope to monopolize their data and market access? It’s a losing battle.





The Coming Blockchain Revolution in Real Estate

According to Forbes, real estate venture investors deployed over $5 billion in real estate technology in 2017. That’s 150 times the $33 million invested in 2010. Blockchain is just one part of that investment.

Blockchain technology is important to the commercial real estate market since it streamlines processes, reduces fraud and cuts costs

What is Blockchain?

A blockchain is a secure network of computers that creates as a living ledger for transactions. When the record is updated with new information — the signing of a contract, the movement of funds, the transfer of ownership — it is updated and time stamped in every computer simultaneously, whether there are two dozen or 2,000. The records are the blocks, the network is the chain — from Real Estate Weekly.

Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency  may influence how real estate is transacted in future and who will participate in buying and selling.

Coinify states that blockchain will speed up real estate transaction, decrease fraud, and increase transparency. For those who worry about international money laundering and organized crime, Blockchain could cut police and investigation costs. Blockchain offers a real digital paper trail.

Blockchain leverages mls type housing data and makes it usable on a larger scale. So the potential power of blockchain systems will threaten the data monopolies that exist in some states and mls districts.

Direct Transaction between Buyers and Sellers

The rewards of listing on a blockchain accessible system will be too much for homeowners and real estate agents to resist.  With blockchain technology property and transaction information is published to a public ledger giving all parties access to the home-buying or leasing process.  Owners, tenants, operators, and service providers will have access to this stream of incorruptible data. The buyer and seller deal with each other directly.

According the IBREA, “Blockchain offers an open source, universal protocol for property buying, conveyancing, recording, escrow, crowdfunding, and more. It can reduce costs, stamp out fraud, speed up transactions, increase financial privacy, internationalize markets, and make real estate a liquid asset.”

How To Buy Real Estate Using Bitcoin

Yes, a lot of people want to know.  I’d advise reading this post on HGTV to get started. Will you still need a real estate agent? Yes, and a real estate lawyer to review all the documents. And these people are insured just in case something does go wrong.

However, make sure you trust the second party if you’re thinking of buying into real estate. “If you want to reverse the transaction due to any litigation, then you need both parties to be compliant,” says Jake. “Bitcoin transactions are not reversible.”  — HGTV




Bitcoin and Real Estate

Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are highly volatile right now, however once they stabilize, homeowners will not balk at selling in Bitcoin. The bitcoin cryptocurrency is set to rock the banking and retail industries, so why not real estate?

Need to know how to Buy a House or Condo using Bitcoin?

Real estate can be a lucrative business yet the drive for cost savings and high prices makes players investigate and try out different solutions. Real estate agents, landlords, mortgage agents, and others have been reluctant to adopt software solutions for fear they would lose competitiveness. The future of real estate is technology in almost every area.

However, that intense competition is yet another driver of the kind of change that could see agents and brokerages disappear. I hope that’s not you, but let’s say the flock is culled. What kind of new real estate sales environment is being created and how will you adapt? There’s opportunity in everything.

Younger Buyers Love Choice and Apps

Millennials are the biggest, most wealthy group of consumers now and they’re proving to be brand agnostic and want open source everything. Throw in millions of wealthy young Chinese immigrants/investors, and you can guess that tradition in real estate is about to be replaced by a new culture — the Uber culture mostly online. On Tech.co, Boris Dzingarov suggested 3 factors will change real estate marketing greatly:

  • Video
  • Mobile devices
  • Online reputation management





Yet, many agents are using video, have already set up mobile friendly sites, and even dressed up their Linkedin and Facebook pages. And they’re not anymore disruptive than anyone else. I think what may mark the new agent is using technology and digital marketing to connect with more prospects.  What may be difficult for them though is that homebuyers and sellers may not accept their pitches. If you can’t go to them, then you’ll have to show up online so they can reach you.

If you have no digital marketing strategy to connect with prospects, make an impact, and remain visible online (top realtors are taking it all for themselves) then perhaps the forecast is as stormy as Dzhingarov is predicting.

Why Agents Will Still Be Needed

Currently, 80% of home purchases are conducted using Realtors, and given the various services they handle, it’s hard to conceive they would be made completely redundant by blockchain or other technology.

Here’s where we can’t do without them:

  • better knowledge of local neighborhoods
  • assessment and advice on contracts
  • real human advice on quality of the property instead of property data collected
  • price negotiation with buyer or sellers
  • spares you the anxiety of buying and selling real estate online
  • help you get a higher price through staging, presentation and sales support
  • arranges inspection and home showings – saving you time

The Outlook for Real Estate Brokers

I’d like to take a moment to discuss what I see happening in this industry. Here’s the top 15 disruptions that may hit the real estate biz in the coming years:

  1. Real Estate Teams – teams loaded with extra services will battle it out with discount brokers to offer better service, particularly in the luxury real estate market where Luxury realtors will go the extra mile.
  2. MLS Data Freely Available to Everyone – no secrets for realtors to use as a trump card. Homeowners will feed home stats to online vendors who will provide increasing marketing power for them.
  3. Social Media Growth – Realtors will expand their circle of contacts via Linkedin and Facebook, and home sellers will look to engage more buyers to get higher bids for their client’s properties. Social media engagement will keep them connected and actively top of mind to prospects, as other realtors impinge on all their clientele.
  4. Content Marketing – more sophisticated and engaging visual content such as interactive infographics and pdfs, and interactive home tours will let buyers drill down quickly to everything they want to know about the home and neighborhood.
  5. Sophisticated Video – slick videos with aerial shots and stunning quality will become templated much like WordPress web sites are now
  6. SEO & SEM– optimizing for whoever is looking for real estate or wants to prepare for sale. This means having a good SEO is critical for inbound marketing, link building and MLS listing optimization. PPC advertising and remarketing ads will play a role too.
  7. Trustworthiness – the insecurity of Uberization will mean parties will be scrutinized for their reputation and professional credibility. Those realtors that have this all laid out strategically will pass the cred test.
  8. Thought Leader/Advisor – generosity of key realty knowledge will influence because real estate is an expensive investment that the average Joe homebuyer doesn’t understand. The realtor’s role will evolve to become a trusted advisor.
  9. Complete Property Transactions Done Online – from bids to closing costs, every aspect of the transaction will be done online, perhaps via a large tablet device connected to a printer. See Realtypoint’s excellent post on this. 
  10. Google, NAR and CREA will lose control of the online realty market – homeowners will list with online entities for exposure and pay minimal fees.
  11. Property Management – More brokers and agents will move into the property management and mortgage business to create more relevant clients, retain them, and build visibility.
  12. More Real Estate Agents Will Go Out of Business – deals will disappear, commissions will fall and competition will be intense and only those with huge client bases will make it.
  13. Clients will gravitate to Large, insuring Finance Comapnies – these firms are capable of insuring transactions, because regular consumers are likely to make big mistakes. Right now of course you and your brokerage and (CMHC in Canada) or (FHA/PMI) in US provides it.
  14. Niche, Boutique Brokerages – they’ll have an edge in relevance, usefulness, and attraction to many buyers and sellers – particularly brokers that offer a la carte services, and prove they have specific types of buyers for a property (e.g., Chinese or Middle Eastern buyers).
  15. Intense Hyperlocal Focus – realtors and teams will use outdoor advertising and social media to dominate local markets.

The Uberization of real estate has already happened. I’m wondering which new Zillows and Trulias rise up to serve this new market? No doubt it’s being discussed in boardrooms right now. [Note: I was invited recently for interviews for a senior digital marketing position with a big, new up and coming lead generation business in Toronto].

Where Will You Be in 5 Years?

The point of this post is to ask you where you’ll be in the coming years and whether you will have initiated the steps to build your future realty business. It’s wise to start planning and connect with the people who will help you grow and sustain it.

What are you thoughts? What changes do you foresee? Will 2018 to 2020 look much different for you and your brokerage? What are you doing to help you survive and thrive in the blockchain era? 

Speaking of hot markets, read the forecast, outlook, and predictions for housing in Toronto, Los Angeles, San Diego, and Vancouver.

 

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Vancouver Condo Market Still Booming – Condominium Prices Rise – Burnaby Richmond Surrey

Vancouver Condo Market Still Booming

Last September’s market report for the greater Vancouver region confirmed that the Vancouver real estate market is still smoking hot. Residents and condo investors are hunting for bargain properties as are students studying at UBC, Langara College and SFU. Demand is high.

The new sales and price numbers below from Royal Lepage, CREA, and REBGV may depress you a bit if your ambition is to own a new or resale condo in the city or even to rent one.

Money Has Moved to the Condo Market

Sales of detached million dollar homes have abated, yet it’s just a switch to a focus in condomiums in Vancouver. This switch has also happened in the Toronto condo market. The challenge for condo buyers is finding on at any price level they can afford. I’m sure you’re finding the rental housing and condo buying situation very difficult and you may find Surrey, Richmond, and Langley your best bets.

Prices of condos have jumped as much as 35% in some areas, and overall prices of apartment condos in Vancouver have jumped an incredible 21.7% from last September. In September CREA reported condo apartment sales growth of 19% in greater Vancouver above that of September 2016. Will that continue in 2018?




Housing Crash in Vancouver? Not Likely

There’s been a lot of talk about housing market crashes in 2018, but wishful thinking might what’s behind it.  At this point (October 2017) experts forecasted that housing markets across North America would be in a crash or deep decline, but it hasn’t happened. It probably own’t here or in US housing markets.  Demand is high and the economy may get stronger.

Condo Sales September 2017 in Vancouver

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in the region totalled 2,821 in September 2017, a 25.2% increase from the 2,253 sales recorded in September 2016, and a 7.3% decrease compared to August 2017 when 3,043 homes were sold — from CREA October report.

There were a total of 1491 apartment condos sold in September with an average HPI benchmark price of $635,800. the price growth over the last year is astonishing with North Vancouver and New Westminster leading.




Vancouver Community Price Growth Over Last 12 months Average Price September 2017
Listings in September 2017
Greater Vancouver 16% $751,861 823
North Vancouver 25.2% $614,173 175
Burnaby 24.6% $561,558 262
Coquitlam 23.8% $482,300 78
Surrey 18.5% $304,779
Langley 17.8% $337,782
Victoria 28% $471,682
West Vancouver 2.2% $1,112,334 42
Richmond 15.6 $510,476 294
Kelowna 20.2 $399,783
New Westminster 26.5% $488,600 167

The numbers above suggest Richmond, Surrey and Burnaby are where you’ll find an affordable condo. Surrey and Langley may be the future. You’ll find a lot of student housing new construction projects in this area too close to the skytrain and the major schools. Unfortunately, you will be competing with the families of wealthy students for the units who are searching off campus.

Vancouver Condo Prices and Sales Stats Screenshot courtesy of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver




How Do the Forecasts Look?

With the economy faring better, most forecasters may even upgrade their 2018 forecast for Toronto housing and the Toronto Condo market forecast, along with the Vancouver region forecast which are the only housing markets doing well.  The rest of the country is hanging on with spillover from the big cities.

When the foreign buyers tax was implemented in BC and Toronto, I suggested that instead, incentives should be provided to property investors and builders to build in areas outside of Vancouver and Toronto. Unrealistic? Long term, it benefits everyone.  These housing shortages are significant economic and personal issues. It could end in a crash.

Still the spillover has helped Kelowna, Calgary, London, Waterloo, and Ottawa.

Crisis for Condo Renters in Vancouver

The situation for many renters is definitely a crisis. There is an exaggerated need for rental properties and housing for students.  One estimate is there are more than 24,o00 families in need of housing in Vancouver and many of them may involve students studying in colleges in Richmond.

Recently 300 buyers showed up to apply for a few coop units up for sale.  If new builds decline because of a fear of rent controls and then Canadian interest rates rise, this could make the forecast gloomy.  Vancouver residents need to get more active and encourage local politicians to adopt a new attitude toward the crisis.

A new socialist driven research project called Cambie Corridor is being conducted to see if a restriction on development to force lower rents will work. In a few years, we’ll have data, but in the meantime, why would the condominium builders not just stop building in Vancouver?  Builders need incentives, where that is just a money losing proposition. They can’t create $850 apartments in Vancouver’s pricey atmosphere.

There’s a lot of belief in magic in some government quarters but the current crisis shows how badly mismanaged housing in Vancouver is.

The city awash in beautiful condo buildings however the units are out of reach of most buyers. One could ask who the builders are building for if few are able to finance them?  New government housing projects could create coop affordable units, but would they turn into another LA styled Watts neighbourhood, with crime and malaise?

Now we understand the wish for a Vancouver housing market crash.

Failing Governments in BC and Ontario Need Ideas

The previous BC government failed badly in using old school tactics to solve an International level challenge.  Rightfully, they were ousted, and now we’ll see if the NDP can actually deliver on their promise to lower income buyers and renters. Supply must be increased in Vancouver as the city just gets more popular.

And for most homebuyers in the Vancouver area, detached houses aren’t even a thought since the average price has hit  $1,617,300 which is up almost 3% since last year.  Condo hunters will have to be more persistent, patient and creative to land a condo to call home.

A solution that may support increasing availability is to open up land for development outside of Vancouver up the coast and out on Vancouver Island, or into the interior. With Federal and BC government incentives and tax support for this (take it from the foreign buyers levy — $billlions of dollar tax grab for what purpose?.   This could be used to draw businesses out into new outlying communities.

Many businesses don’t actually need to be in Vancouver. If they had an opportunity to move somewhere cheaper, they’d do it. They’d get away from the congestion too. People want to live near the jobs, thus moving  the jobs outward will take the pressure off and open up amazing new cities across BC.  Places like the Comox Valley and Sunshine Coast and Nanaimo would welcome the growth.



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Real Estate Agents – Find A Realtor in Your City

2 Million Real Estate Agents and Counting

Close to 2 million people are involved in selling and buying real estate in San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, Seattle, Sacramento, or San Jose, and that number continues to grow.  Real estate is a hot sector as the housing market grows. Finding the right realtor for you is a lot easier now. In fact, there is a service that matches you with a real estate agent with your preferred personality traits.

Sam McDadi sells over 700 homes a year. That tends to create some believers in the BIG Kahuna
Sam McDadi sells a lot of homes via 30 agents, but will he be selling your home himself?  Screen capture courtesy of Mcdadi.com

Personality aside, it’s usually character, skill, experience, good judgement, communication, and intent that are the key traits you should be looking for. And there are agents who are professionals and have your best interests at heart. You just have to find them.

Before you choose an agent from Remax, Century21, Coldwell Banker, Sothebys, Keller Williams, Homelife, Sutton Group, and the other big brokerages, continue searching on Google as you’re going to get an idea of who is available and what their strengths are. If they don’t tell you on their website, then there’s not much reason to hire them.

Search on Google for A Worthy Realtor

Type in: homes for sale + your city name, to see who is at the top of the rankings in your city or residential area.  With this search of homes for sale in Malibu, California, shown below, 2 top realtors come up. Cortazzo and TheAgencyRE have risen because people either like them or respect them. The others are just major brand brokerage sites who are present in the search results only because their individual agents link their websites to the broker site — so that’s not a legit vote from customers, and Google needs to improve this part of their algorithm.

The point is that realtors who try to get top rankings put in an effort and their websites are visible to home buyers and home sellers. They’re proving to you that they are serious about marketing. It’s a strong sign of effort, honesty and competence. Hopefully, they’ll have a sizable social media presence too and aren’t just using Google ads or Facebook ads to gain visibility which could signify laziness.

A high ranking realtor has to work very hard to get that top ranking — so Google’s telling you something.

Chris Cortazzo Realtor

Look for those who the needed skills in the specific housing market you’re looking to buy in and that they demonstrate good negotiating skills. Big brokerages will pawn you off to some agent where you hope you’ll get good service and results.

Real estate agents in the US are licensed by their state and provincial realtor associations which are in turn associated with NAR and CREA.  These organizations own the MLS (multiple listing service) listings which are managed locally by MLS associations such as CAR, TREB, SDAR, SFAR, GVREB, ARA, GBAR, PAR, and others throughout the US and Canada.

How to Choose a Good Real Estate Agent

hans
Is the “Sold Over Asking” tagline obscuring the rest of the realtor’s value proposition to you?

Unfortunately, there are incompetent, lazy, ineffective, agents who may have little integrity and it would be unfortunate for you to get matched up with them. If you’re a senior who needs help with selling your family home to buy a condo, there are realtors who may bilk you and could trick you into a bad contract. This happened to one of my friend’s mother, a brilliant woman in her day, but the realtor was successful in getting her to sign a horrible locked in contract at 6% commission. She said she thought the realtor looked trustworthy and sounded very professional. The realtor knew she was elderly and should have been careful with any negotiations and given her time to consider.

Relying on brokerage brand reputation or the agent’s appearance isn’t a reliable method of choosing the best real estate agent for you. A cordial, flawless presentation could mean their very practiced in misleading as the realtor in the above story highlights.

How To Choose the Right Real Estate Agent

Their awards, accreditation, references, testimonials, and nice photograph are enticing, but you’d better have a checklist of items and questions to go through such as these:

  1. Do you know them and have you had previous conversations with them?
  2. Do you feel trust and confidence in them?
  3. Do they show that they’ll take care with you and lead you through the whole process patiently?
  4. Do they have a strong presence online?
  5. Do they rank on Google for common searches such as homes for sale, condos for sale, real estate in [your city]?
  6. How long have they been a licensed practicing realtor?
  7. What does their Linkedin, Facebook, and Twitter accounts say about them?
  8. Ask them if they’ve sold any homes in your neighbourhood and ask for the names of the people involved in that sale and then phone them.
  9. Do their references sound like they’ve been coached?
  10. realtors have busy hectic schedules with multiple projects going but are they calm enough to pay attention to your needs and wants?
  11. Ask them how many clients they are selling with right now
  12. Do a name search on Google and learn more about them
  13. Do you like them and how would you describe their personality?
  14. How does their energy level look and are they persistent?
  15. Ask for a property evaluation and ask the realtor to justify the selling or bid price
  16. Does the agent work well with other agents?
  17. Does the agent specialize in properties and price range like yours?
  18. Ask them what their strengths and weaknesses are
  19. ask them if they double end or if they’ve bought their client’s house for any reason?
  20. ask them to describe their negotiation style
  21. ask them to describe their marketing strategy in full, including all online and local media
  22. ask them about the most complicated transaction they did
  23. ask them how many career transactions they’ve done
  24. ask them why they want to represent you
  25. ask them what legal, insurance and financial backing they possess
  26. ask them how they will market and sell your property

This realtor discusses technical and other key skills that you may want to ascertain in the real estate agent you choose.

And what is the day of a successful, busy real estate agent like?

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Competition Bureau Rules Against Toronto Real Estate Board

Are Zillow, Zoocasa heralding in the Uberization of Real Estate?

The long running battle between the Toronto Real Estate Board and the Federal Government’s competition bureau has culminated with a new ruling that TREB has engaged in anti-competitive acts.  TREB was accused of anti-competitive restrictions on the use of MLS information.

Pic courtesy of the CBC
Pic courtesy of the CBC

We’re wondering about the future of real estate in Canada and whether TREB, the MLS, and major brokerages will survive an uberization of real estate? Are the major brands in jeopardy? Will more competition mean online listings will become the new battleground for customers? How will realtor’s sales and commissions be affected?

Lawrence Dale, a Toronto lawyer and founder of Realtysellers initiated an action against TREB in 2011 after battling them for 10 years.

“Finally, the market will open up. It will not be so easy any more for TREB and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) to abuse their control over the MLS to prevent competitors to the traditional model from operating as they have to date done so successfully.” said Dale.

competitionbureau
Members of Canada’s Competition Bureau. Courtesy of ic.gc.ca.

Apparently, according to a Toronto Star report, Dale had been put out of business by TREB. He had launched a virtual office website business with Bell. Bell valuated that business at $1.4 billion indicating how lucrative new online real estate businesses can be. You may see brokerages entering the digital marketing sphere in earnest soon. In fact, I’m looking forward to putting listings right here on my blog! Very exciting times.

Dale had launched Zoocasa with Rogers as partner. Last summer, a group reportedly paid about $350,000 for the zoocasa.com domain name and the technology behind the zoocasa.com site, which had been losing about $1.5 million a month under Rogers. It looks like a pretty sweet deal for the smart thinking investors (reminds me of the provincial government’s sale of the 407 a few years back).

Zoocasa’s on the hunt for new agents in case you’re interested! I’m unconvinced that their technology is anything more than common IDX feeds, but you can always check them out.

zoocasa

Lengthy Drawn Out Battle Ends as Competition Board tries to Sink their Teeth in

Dale and Canada’s Competition Tribunal originally launched the case in 2011, when TREB had restricted its 40,000 member agents from providing information from the MLS database such as home pricing and agent’s commissions.  The tribunal is asking both sides for an acceptable remedy. Since TREB wants to retain control over real estate in the GTA, a compromise likely won’t be forthcoming too quickly. Ultimately, TREB’s continued resistance could lead to stronger sanctions, fines, and requirements to meet Canada’s competition policies.

Will the ruling lead to competing databases of homes for sale and sold in Canada? TREB’s resistance could show they believe the organization will eventually fall against competitors such as Zillow, Zoocasa, Trulia, Redfin, Yahoo homes, and possibly the re-emergence of Google in the real estate sector.

Is the Realtor Market Dam About to Burst?

TREB’s resistance may reveal their concern that this will all lead to the Uberization of real estate. Some feel that a boom in real estate tech innovation is about occur. Online real estate lead generation firms including Zillow are eager to grab a share of the new open market. Intense competition will likely erode traffic to realtor.ca.

Other MLS associations across the country will be forced to obey the same rules thus leading to more open markets in Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, and Montreal. From a report in the Globe and Mail, Bill Bill Madder, CEO of the Association of Saskatchewan Realtors was quoted as saying “Anyone that does have an MLS system could be affected by it. We’re watching it and, obviously, if it’s been deemed to be a legal requirement, we’ll make the changes.”

With more competitive practices in the real estate sector enforced, new types of real estate businesses will evolve to compete directly with real estate agents across Canada.  How will Canada’s realtors adapt to the coming free for all environment?

Let’s talk digital marketing for realtors. Where are you getting leads and hoping you’ll find them for the 2016/17 seasons? Are you moving to lead generators, outdoor and transit advertising, or hoping your brokerage will deliver more leads to you? Do you feel 2016 is going to be the best year yet? See how the US real estate forecast looks like.

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MLS Real Estate Listings – NAR CREA – TREB Homes Condos for Sale

What is the MLS?

MLS is the term you often see used on realtor’s websites casually or formally. It’s also referred to frequently in housing forecasts and Realtor sales reports.  The multiple listing service or MLS is essentially a database of homes for sale. In the US, the National Real Estate Association owns the rights to the term and in Canada, including Toronto, the MLS® is a registered trademark of the Canadian real estate association.

mlsNAR and CREA consider both the acronym MLS® and the information collected in the MLS database as their sole proprietary asset as are the terms Realtor®, Realtors® and Multiple Listing Service® as well as the Realtor.com and Realtor.ca websites.

The governments in the US and Canada have a different view of that information and who is the legal owner. CREA in Canada and NAR is the US are the respective organizations who own the trademarks and MLS databases.  They are associations of trained and accredited professional realtors.  CREA and NAR member associations designed and built their respective MLS databases as a private collection of information for their members and for national members. There is quite a bit of cooperation between US and Canadian associations because of national real estate brokers such as Remax, Century 21, Royal Lepage, Coldwell Banker, and others.




NAR – The National Association of Realtors in the US

nar2NAR or the National Association of Realtors is owned by a private company headquartered in Chicago. It is a self regulatory organization of 1.1 million members who are either Brokers or Realtor associates. NAR governs the hundreds of local Multiple Listing Services (MLSs) which are the information exchanges used across the nation by real estate brokers.

After being charged by the US department of Justice for  antitrust activities, NAR responded by proposing a single Internet Listing Display system that allows its members to exclude individual brokers (whether of a bricks-and-mortar type or solely internet-based) and opt out of display on all other brokers sites. In Canada, there is a similar agreement.

crealogoRecently, Canada’s competition bureau ruled against TREB several times with respect to anti-competitive activities. It seems TREB and CREA want to favour their members and retain their monopoly on the MLS data. As you may know, a monopoly is one of the most cherished goals of any free enterprise business. When you have monopoly, you can set the rules and charge whatever you want for your product and services. Microsoft and Google are two other organizations that have possessed almost monopolistic power and it worked very well for them. No anti-competitive charges have been laid against Google.

Most of us would uphold the right of a company to own their products including a database and charge whatever the market will bear. Sort of like how Miami, Boston, New York, Vancouver, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, Dallas and Toronto realty markets are going right now.

Others believe that this type of monopoly is unfair to consumers who may be forced to buy services they don’t really want or need. The Internet has imposed itself on the real estate industry and consumers are doing more of the real estate buying process themselves. Realtors are sought for their added value as expert consultants.

CREA has not accepted or updated their view of the situation, yet CREA does want to claim to be a governing, ruling body of authority with respect to who practices real estate and to enforce that through local town bylaws and licensing regulations. All of a sudden, free market ideology isn’t quite being realized here. Without the formation of a competitive alternative, the government can claim an unfair monopoly for CREA and seek to rectify it or punish CREA for its behaviour, and it is doing so.

Canadian MLS

There are a number of MLS’s across Canada, BC, Alberta, Quebec, and Ontario. The Toronto Real Estate Board controls the Toronto MLS district which is known as the TREB MLS system which includes properties in Toronto, Mississauga, Oakville, Scarborough, Vaughan, Markham, Brampton, Richmond Hill, Aurora, Newmarket, Oshawa, and Etobicoke.

Each licensed and qualified realtor in the TREB district can obtain a datafeed of the Toronto MLS for a monthly database usage feel. That list of properties and its details are then presented on the realtor or agent’s website and you can search their listings for homes and condos for sale.

Competitors of the MLS’s include Zillow, Zoocasa, and Trulia. These organizations are generally not liked because they threaten the MLS and the status of realtors across North America. Realtors® often talk disparagingly about these services including complaints about their method of estimating the value of a home.

The truth of this might be that we’re in between a rock and a hard place. CREA’s power to own home sales data across Canada is coming to an end. They can only delay the inevitable, and the more they resist, the stronger new competitors will be in building their business to compete with CREA. The battle continues.

MLS Property Details and Homes for Sale

When you do a search for a home using the MLS system you won’t see all the information a realtor sees. They have access to extra information such as old listing prices and previous selling prices. If the sale happens on the free market, then knowledge of old selling prices isn’t all that meaningful anyway. What a property was evaluated, listed at, or sold at 5 years ago, has little relevance in today’s fast rising market.

As you can see in this map of TREB areas below, TREB MLS coverage is large and actually encompasses other mls associations. Other Ontario real estate boards having their own MLS’s include the REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington, London St. Thomas Association of Realtors, Niagara Association of REALTORS and many others.

TREBregions

Toronto MLS Districts

TREB MLS coverage includes Mississauga, Markham, Richmond Hill, Brampton, Scarborough and Oshawa. The graphic below delineates the TREB mls districts (small blue rectangular areas) in its purview.

mlsdistricts

You can learn more about home selling prices in each MLS district on the Toronto Real Estate board website were you’ll find their monthly reports. Some like these give you a breakdown of homesale in each area, and home much they are typically sold above asking price.

 

existinghomesales2016




What can we say in final comments about the Toronto MLS? That it’s a handy listing of homes and condos for sale, and a valuable repository of information about a specific property’s details and history which buyers will be interested in knowing should they be willing to buy that home or condo. Homes hold many dark secrets and sometimes buyers are left with a bad financial surprise revealed later. If you’ve bought such a home, you can seek redress in the courts if it looks like the seller should have revealed it.

After you’ve done your initial perusing of the Toronto MLS home listings, find a trustworthy realtor who has the ability to market your home to as many home hunters as possible. Your goal as a home seller is to get the best price for your huge investment. That’s what your home is — an investment and one day you will sell it.

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Condo Market Heats up in Toronto, Vancouver and San Diego

Realtors Looking at Strong Market for Condos

The market for condos in North America’s hottest cities is heating up as housing becomes scarce.  The low Canadian dollar is making all Vancouver and Toronto properties an attractive investment but condos are the hidden gem for investors. The market in San Diego too is also being driven by a lack of housing stock.

3 Cities Primed for More Price Growth

Vancouver is loaded with condos and Toronto has seen a huge growth in new condo developments in the last 5 years. San Diego’s condo market is poised for astonishing growth.

As this graphic highlights, the great recession barely affected rocketing prices in Vancouver since 2002. There is no more land in Vancouver which means the sky is the limit in Canada’s top city.

vancouverhousing

Explosive growth in the Canadian market is fueled by Chinese, Middle Eastern and US buyers.  Vancouver is the main target of wealthy Chinese buyers. The strong Yuan and weak Loonie means Chinese millionaires are finding plenty of bargains to move into or to use as investments.  Many of the units are sitting vacant but don’t expect to see them on AirBnb.

Toronto Sales Volume Rising Fast

Toronto’s condo sales volume grew 10% in August in the city and 23% in the region just outside Toronto.  No housing bubble is forecast for Toronto.

BILD CEO Bryan Tuckey says many potential first-time buyers are being priced out of the market. He says there’s a limited supply of new houses because of a lack of development-ready, serviced land across the region, which means “homes are being purchased faster than they can be brought to market.”

Foreign Buyers Helping to Drive up Prices in San Diego

San Diego’s real estate revival is in progress. Realtors are just getting positioned for the coming boom.  The graphic below from Jorge Castelon of Harcourts Pacific Realty in San Diego reveals the upward trend.

san-diego-condos

That’s an eye opening 50% rise in 5 years and the real estate market in San Diego still hasn’t taken off yet.

This graphic from August shows a shortage of units is lifting prices fast.

sandiegosalestrendsaugust

The US is the only country expected to excel economically, which means the US dollar will only go up. San Diego properties might be as good an investment as those in Toronto and Vancouver. As the world’s baby boomers begin looking for ideal locations to live the last decades of their lives, San Diego will be high on the list.

San Diego has 64 huge condo buildings and San Diego county has many more. The San Diego market is still marked by a high underwater rate so there’s plenty of hidden opportunity here.

The prices are outpacing wage growth, a trend that analysts say is only going to continue so long as the region sees its supply of housing remain tight. Mark Goldman, a loan officer and real-estate lecturer at San Diego State University, said home prices are appreciating faster than he expected — from the San Diego Tribue.

With mortgage rates remaining at such low levels, the condo market will be especially attractive.  The average homeowner in San Diego spends $10,647 per year on their mortgage. And the average renter in the city will pay a whopping 44% of their income on their rent. Either for rental income or as a capital investment, condos and homes in San Diego look awfully good.

Of course, we’re talking about San Diego. The luxury market is even more attractive to Chinese buyers who typically only look for $1 million+ properties.

$11.78 billion: The dollar amount in home sales in San Diego County in the first half of 2015, up 13.2 percent from $10.4 billion last year —  CoreLogic.

sandiegocondoview
Photo Courtesy of Dream Homes Magazine

Prospective buyers around the world will see condos for sale like this one at right.

If this market potential doesn’t excite you, I don’t know what will. If you’re a San Diego, Vancouver or Toronto realtor with condo stock for sale, it might be the perfect time to do digital marketing right.

Contact me at gordcoll5@rogers.com to get started with a better digital marketing program designed for realtors that includes SEO, content strategy and social media engagement. Visit my linkedin page too linkedin.com/in/gordcollins.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note: the above content is not presented as a proposition for sales in real estate, nor advice about any realty investment. It is a commentary on economic and real estate conditions. All investors face uncertainty and economic factors beyond control and are advised to consult with a professional realtor before buying or selling.