Toronto Housing Market Crash – 15 Reasons why the Toronto Real Estate Bubble is About to Burst?

Toronto Real Estate Market Crash Overdue in 2018/2019?

When we begin counting the many reasons why and when the Toronto real estate estate market might implode, we might agree it is a possibility now.  TREB’s market report next week will tell us if it’s already started.

Is the Big Toronto housing crash coming in 2018? Would it precede or follow a Toronto stock market crash? In this post we’re going to explore the crash factors, some of which are getting noisy. Check here if you’re looking for the latest US housing bubble report.

The Ontario government’s disturbing strategy now is now working within an economy on the downturn and a smaller tax base. Wynne is rightfully concerned about the TPP trade deal threat which holds little promise for Ontario manufacturing. With the US pulling auto manufacturing back into the US, our key industry is threatened.

Companies here are facing a rising loonie and looking longingly south at the low tax rates there. You can read the other reasons for a doom and gloom picture for the Toronto housing market below.

If there’s been a perfect time to sell your home, this is it.

And with US President Donald Trump’s 2018 state of the union speech, it looks like the US is on its way to its biggest economic growth in history. Without the full benefits of NAFTA, the Canadian economic outlook is troubled, especially if oil prices rise only moderately, putting the economy in no mans land.

And for Ontario, the picture is less positive:

  1. the TSX stock exchange is one of the worst performing in the world
  2. the NAFTA deal may be cancelled or manfacturing exports down
  3. the TPP deal would open up Ontario to cheap Asian competitors
  4. the price of oil is rising and raising Ontario’s costs of doing business
  5. real estate is very expensive
  6. rent to income ratios are extremely high in GTA
  7. interest rates are high
  8. consumer debt is maxed out
  9. the Ontario government is anti-business and anti-housing growth
  10. Ontario’s taxes can’t generate enough money for infrastructure improvements
  11. the CAD is rising and eroding Ontario’s competitive advantage
  12. Canada has been near last in direct foreign investment for many years
  13. US tax rates have plummeted giving companies reason to relocate there
  14. cash strapped, stressed out Millennials will finally give up on the dangerous gamble of buying a home for $600k+
  15. the Federal Government may raise the Capital gains tax
The Toronto Stock exchange one of the worst in the world, and is tumbling in 2018
Canadian beginning strong rise against falling US Dollar.

Are Canadians thinking crash?

From the Bank of Canada governor to expert authors, there’s a dull roar of people warning about a Toronto housing crash. Are they contibuting and pushing or is this just plain fact?

Now we’re into 2018, home sales are slow, sellers are definitely getting nervous, and younger buyers more frustrated. More worrisome is the recent troubles in the stock market, with the rising dollar and rising oil prices which just hit $66 per barrel.

The debate raged last year, but it looks like Douglas Porter (his most recent thoughts) might have it right for a 2018 forecast.

Here’s Douglas Porter again on Feb 1 saying there is no immediate danger:

 

The Americans too are worried about a housing bubble in 2018, yet their economy is on a definite upswing. The amount of money being repatriated into the US (Apple bringing in $450 billion) is incredible. All that investment money is coming back home to create jobs in the US. Of course there will be a spillover into Canada.

Huge personal debt and a vulnerable economy combined with Millennial desperation and huge immigration growth are fueling some sort of event.

Everyone’s wondering what will start the avalanche. The election of the PC party in June could create the euphoria and optimism that will inflate prices severely next summer.  There’s some risk in it, however the benefits will be tremendous for anyone in Ontario looking to buy their own home.

“This is either a pause in the bubble and inflation is going to resume into even more stratospheric levels, or this is the start of a hard landing,” said Hilliard MacBeth, portfolio manager at RichardsonGMP and author of “When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash.”

Should you list and sell your house now? Will interest rates and inflation, and government policies lead to a catastrophic housing and economic collapse in Canada in 2018/2019? Could our prime minister mismanage the economy?

In the booming US, they’re asking similar questions about a housing market crash. That would make a Toronto market crash more plausible. Yet many see the market ready to boom. Very confusing, but let’s take a look at the Toronto market crash scenario first and see all the factors to consider before you buy or sell your home.



2018, 2019, 2002 or Beyond?

If it’s not a question of if the Toronto market crash might happen, then might a questio of when — 2018 or 2019? Or will the crash threat simply fade as demand for homes weakens? Lots of uncertainty and not much consensus.

There’s a list of the crash factors however if they line up in a certain squence, it might be enough to set the house of cards plummeting. Is the key crash factor financial, political, or would it be a sudden loss of consumer confidence in real estate and the Canadian economy?

Much of Canada’s prosperity comes via natural resources and trade with the US. Despite all the optimism, trade restrictions (Bombardier loss) by the US are no joke as are falling commodity prices. And if you were a bank, would you want to lend out billions to young first time home buyers in the face of an unstable government and economy?

I just read a story about a company that is ready to help buyers rent to buy so they don’t have to pay a downpayment in some cases. Is the same scenario we had in 2006 and 2007?




Provincial Governments and Drastic Actions

The Ontario Premier impulsively reacted with the foreign buyers tax which helped cool demand, but the crash may not be about the flame. It may be about the fundamentals of a Canadian economy which has the least direct foreign investment of any G20 country and a shaky trade deal with one country which seems to blocking imports of our wood and oil.

The Ontario, BC, and Canadian federal governments have been so negative, repressive, and unsupportive of the contribution of real estate to the economy, that those actions are the key to a disaster. Continued suppression of land development for housing is creating a true housing crisis.

1 million new immigrants are arriving in Canada by 2020, it’s sets the stage for desperate buying (the dreaded housing bubble) and bigger opportunities for rental property investors.

Some experts suggest a crash is impossible, while other expert predictions (from TD’s Bank President), support the theory that rising unemployment and rising mortgage rates would be needed to begin the landslide.

Canadians have one of highest per capita debt levels of any G7 nation. With the NAFTA deal in trouble, we could see those rise. So when someone asks “should I sell my house” in Toronto, the response depends on whether the government will change course and help in a massive housing development program.

crashahead
Image courtesy of look4itknysna.co.za





What Causes Housing Bubbles to Form and then Burst?

What causes a housing market bubble?  What factors could burst Toronto’s bubble and possibly send the economy into a skid? Most of those factors are listed below. The key is rocketing demand (like we saw in spring 2017) combined with intensive government meddling, during a time of economic prosperity.

The key may be market susceptibility, instability, caused by investor uncertainty. After a charged up price index, an event occurs that sends investors scurrying fast.  It could be foreign investors or Canadian investors. Only if the economy suddenly loses its strength and people find themselves without jobs will they default and abandon their underwater mortgages, as they did during the US economic recesssion. When bank governors begin to use vague, waffling language, it creates the kind of uncertainty investors dislike.

Bank governor Poloz said that interest rates could move “in either direction.” He emphasized that the Canadian economy was still highly susceptible to shocks, and a cooling housing market combined with debt worries are still worthy of concern – from the Fool.ca  

Should I sell my house in Toronto and should I buy a condo in the Toronto area?

Find out how the Toronto Real Estate market shaping up.   Check out more detailed market updates and forecasts for of MississaugaVaughan, Richmond Hill, Aurora, Newmarket, and Bradford.

Vancouver’s real estate market has shown volatility of late. It looked like the market was coming back but it has leveled off again.

The lack of rentals is the “biggest pain point for our city,” With 100,000 people moving to the Toronto area annually, the region needs about 30,000 rental units. Toronto has about 1,500 coming on stream” from Toronto Star report.

If you’re thinking of selling your home to get in on this Toronto market winfall, you need to find a real estate agent. The market might not burst until 2018, but it could heat up badly in April, May and June to begin the freefall.

richmondhill4

What exactly happens in a real estate market crash? Here’s one answer:

If a bubble were to burst, the real estate market would slow to a crawl. “You’d probably see very little transaction volume,” said University of British Columbia professor Thomas Davidoff. “People would be locked into their homes and their mortgages.”  




In a crash, you couldn’t sell your home since buyers would just wait forever for the market to hit bottom and fewer could get financing to buy it.

Lots of questions to ask such as “is this just a monster luxury home problem?” If the market plummets, what will it mean if I have an underwater mortgage and can’t renew at higher mortgage rates?  Are my relatives wise to buy right now? Will a crash have an effect on employment in the Toronto area? Consider this from a report on CBC:

1 in 10 wiped out by 20% correction — A badly managed downturn in real estate prices could wipe out the wealth of a large number of Gen-Xers and Gen-Yers. We need to recognize that young families are the most likely group to be plunged underwater by a nasty housing correction,” said CCPA economist David Macdonald.

Sound scary? Then let’s take a real, no holds barred look at the real estate market in Toronto and the factors that could create a crash because our assumptions might be false.

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This report from the CBC tells us a lot about the whole business of forecasting crashes (and that they haven’t happened)

Prices keep rising. Bearish predictions that Canada’s housing market is about to crash, and calls for the government to cool hot markets, have been around for at least that long.

In fact, prices have risen steadily since the recession of the early 1990s and even the dip during the financial crisis of 2009 was a mild one. “Da Bears may some day be right, especially on the hottest markets, but getting the timing down is half the challenge,” Porter said. A Goldilocks market is not too hot, not too cold. But Canada’s housing market is running both hot, cold and lukewarm all at the same time.  From http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bmo-porter-housing-crash-1.3493809

Nostradamus and the Pundits

Some experts are calling for a housing crash in 2017, based on overheated prices, yet they don’t discuss what might be done to alleviate the problem in the Toronto region. The key issue for the Toronto real estate market, (as it is in the US market) is a lack of housing supply but there are other factors outline below. A host of government leaders have sought to crush land development and have quietly gotten away with their policies. But now the spotlight is aimed directly on them.

Could Premier Kathleen Wynne arrange to cancel the Places to Grow legislation and open up new land to ease home prices? Isn’t that a more sensible thing to do rather than providing more incentives for first time buyers who  are up to their ears in consumer debt pondering a very high priced condo or house purchase? Is Kathleen Wynne is precipitating risk factor for a big housing crash in Toronto? Will interest rates rise so buyers would be less likely to bid on homes and condos?

Some would suggest that she and the Liberals are too ideologically driven to flex on that one. Yet Wynn’s approval rating is now below 20%. That is really low so easing up when the Federal government is crack down on mortgages doesn’t make a lot of sense. Her super low rating means Ontario doesn’t want her as Premier anymore and out of desperation facing years more in office, she could do something risky to seek approval. Wynne is a sell now factor.

More Foreign Investment Needed

The high demand for homes and property from foreign investors from China and the Middle East and the US, has been  a wonderful thing for Ontario and Canada. If not for real estate, the world has no interest in investing in Canada. Foreign investment is at its lowest level in 60 years which means no one is going to save us.

Federal Justice minister Bill Morneau recently announced measures to cool the Toronto market, however experts feel the Feds can’t do much, in fact the Feds have said that themselves.  They believe the provinces should be managing their own affairs. That brings it back to the Wynne government who has used risky, sudden measures. So when ministers start using words such as fragile, you’ve been given fair warning about a potential crash.

Justin Trudeau should be travelling and posing for cameras on the subject of why investing in Canada is wise. New free trade deals with ailing South American countries won’t work because we have nothing to export and they don’t buy our stuff. Without financing, the Ontario companies don’t stand a chance competing against well funded foreign firms. A low dollar and access to the US market is all we have.

If the 2018 Toronto Housing Market does Crash

If a housing crash is imminent, you’d be wise to unload your property now during the winter. Is 10 or 20 thousand dollars worth missing out on the greatest real estate cashout of all time? Up or down market, a wise person would answer the question of “Should I sell my home now” is in the affirmative.

Toronto Housing Market Crash Factors

What are the economic and real estate market factors that affect your selling decision?

  • strength of the US economy
  • GTA economy and employment starts to fall
  • Canadian consumer debt reaching lmits
  • NAFTA agreeement conflicts and refusals
  • US restrictions on imports from Mexico and China begin to topple their housing markets
  • immigration levels drop off
  • add on taxation by Ontario, city and Toronto governments
  • soaring home prices fall
  • moderate new home construction – abandoned security deposits
  • government meddling with property use
  • mortgage rates rising faster
  • number of millennials buying homes drops or house prices are out of reach
  • Wynn and Trudeau don’t have a handle on the economy
  • political pressure to keep home prices up to protect homeowner’s equity and credit situations

What the Heck Happened in Vancouver?

The booming Vancouver real Estate market plunged not long after the foreign buyers tax was implemented. That hurt speculators and Asian buyers who were finding a way to invest in Canada. It was good for BC renters, but not good for Vancouver. Foreign investors will have lost some trust in the BC government. These sorts of radical taxes and regulations don’t go over well with investors.

Unfortunately, the pain of high rents and no vacancies was too much for the Vancouverites to to bear and they pushed the tax through. The Asian money soon transfered to Los Angeles and Seattle where potential is so high.
Will the bubble burst in Toronto soon? A lot of buyers and sellers and mortgage lenders are struggling with that question.




Kathleen Wynn and John Tory aren’t talking about the crash possibility and the various mayors in Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Aurora Newmarket etc aren’t saying much either. They’re enjoying the tax haul, but they realize Canadian consumer debt is a huge matter. If mortgage rates and unemployment rise, we’ve got a crash type situation on our hands.

With high home prices come new home construction and if you’ve been to Aurora Newmarket, Bradford and King township lately you’ve seen the huge growth in new communities. But the demand far outstrips supply. The fact is Toronto is a hot market and prices aren’t slowing.

Is this the best year to buy rental income property?  Read these posts on best investments in 2017 including investing in real estate.

Does the Past Tell Us Anything?

If the past does tell us anything, it tells us we’ll probably make the same mistakes again about forecasting crashes and bubble downturns.  If we look at Toronto home prices over the past 60 years, we’ll see that they’ve just kept rising. Even the great recession cause only a small blip and the US recession of 2007 didn’t even leave a dent. As long as there’s a lack of development land, the price will speed up like an angry commuter on Indy 400 (or 404 or 401) and inevitably crash.

finposthomestoronto2017

The last thing we’re left with in pondering the possibility of a Toronto housing crash in 2017 is what starts an avalanche?  Is a stock market crash in 2019 a possibility that will affect your decision to buy?

Here’s a few resources on the bubble issue:

Housing market has ‘low probability’ for collapse: RBC report

Why Every Investor Needs to Worry About Canada’s Housing Bubble

Hands off my housing bubble!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-canada-real-estate-1.3822489

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Apartment Rentals in Toronto ⌂ Toronto Rental Market Prices Rise Fast – Toronto Mississauga Brampton North York GTA

Toronto Apartment Rental Prices Haven’t Dropped

While housing prices rise and hopeful homebuyers in Toronto and Vancouver complain about the housing crisis apartment rental prices in Toronto.

And then there are those who don’t have the strength to get up off their sidewalk grates and jump for joy about the latest government program announced. What really is ridiculous about this is that our government is squeezing housing supply raising housing and apartment rental prices and then dressing themselves up as some kind of superhero.

Federal Government’s view of Millennial homelessness? Comfortable and hydrated

Amost on cue, jumping on the housing crisis easy button is our Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. With tired, worn out solutions pulled from history books, Trudeau is planning to spend $40 billion over ten years. He made the announcement during a recent photo shoot for media.



The forecast is for higher rents, more homeless people, more social problems, and stressed low wage Canadians occupied more with staying alive than helping boost Canada’s GDP. And our growing numbers of foreign students will wondering whether Canada’s lack of student housing should make them choose the US instead.

According to Covenant House, “over the course of the year, the number of young people who spend some time homeless in Canada is as many as 40,000, and on any given night, there may be up to 7,000[1] homeless youth.”

Toronto Apartment and Condo Prices Rise

Prices for apartment rentals in Toronto are heading toward heights you’d normally associate with New York, Los Angeles or the Bay Area of California. Yet, they have much higher wages.  The CMHC’s report on rental properties shows a drop to a 1.1% vacancy rate, and it’s likely a good portion of those available units are high priced. The average rental price has risen to $1,296 per month, up 4.5 %.

“The Toronto rental market is out of control,,,And because of that, rents are shooting through the roof. You go to a showing in some parts of town, you’re going to have a lineup around the block,” said Geordie Dent, executive director of the Federation of Metro Tenants Associations  (from CBC news report).

According to TREB, the average rent for one-bedroom condominium apartments in the TREB market area was up by
11.2% to $1,976 in Q3 2017 over the same period last year. The average two-bedroom condominium apartment rent was up by 7.7% over the same period to $2,607. You can view TREB’s chart below.




As a CBC report suggests, the big issue of 2018, 2019, 2020 elections could be housing affordability, particularly rent prices.  The CBC coverage is very good actually and acknowledges the good and the bad, however not much is said about how we got in this hot water.

 

Please Share this Post about our housing crisis. It’s a serious matter.

 

A lot of voters rent. This isn’t something Prime Minister Trudeau has addressed seriously during his whirlwind, jet setting, global tours, but it’s an issue that will be waiting for him every day he arrives at his office until the election. The forecast is for a very tight election race because the only ones who might vote for Trudeau are the status quo crowd. It’ll be an interesting year coming up in Canadian politics.



Screen Capture courtesy of CBC

It’s housing, immigration, political pandering, and economic incompetence that will see Justin Trudeau leave office. Support for wages, housing and homelessness will not be coming rom foreign multinationals doing business here.

Seriously, Landlords are the Cause of Low Vacancy and Homelessness?

Incredibly, the CMHC is blaming rental increases on rogue, profiteering landlords. That seems to completely discount their brand new report of record low vacancies.  Does CMHC read its own PR??

Landlords are not government agencies the last time we asked, and they are allowed to make a profit like the Canadian banks, Ontario Hydro, etc.

According to a CBC report, Trudeau’s national housing program will focus on chronic homelessness. The government says they will manage this professionally and reduce the number of homeless by 50% within the next 10 years. Of course, half of them will be dead within 10 years, so in theory, Trudeau’s vision is sound. Mark 1 for the PM.

Tip of the Iceberg: What Might Really be Coming in the Next Ten Years





The new Federal housing program plans to spend $2.2-billion on homelessness but will delay that until the spring of 2019. That means 2 more freezing cold winters for the homeless.

To understand the issue better, let’s remember that we’re in boom times right now. If the economy falls back into recession, the number of homeless and poverty level people falling through the cracks will rise. Will billions of tax dollars earmarked be enough to deal with a recession?

What have the governments of Ontario and Canada been doing to the housing industry?  Strangling it. Only by freeing up developers and land, and creating big tax incentives will the problem be eased.

Canada’s New Housing Plan?

The new national housing plan announced by Trudeau has these objectives:

  • Building 100,000 new affordable housing units
  • Repairing 300,000 affordable housing units
  • Cutting chronic homelessness by 50 per cent
  • Protecting 385,000 households from losing an affordable home
  • Providing 300,000 households with financial assistance through the Canada Housing Benefit
  • Removing 530,000 households from housing need

The proposed housing would built over 10 years likely won’t accommodate the homeless now, let alone those who will be entering that world over the next decade.

Housing is just one aspect of a miserable problem brought on by Free Trade and globablism. Even when housed, millions of Canadians still need food, medical services, and jobs. As more Canadians plunge into minimum wages, pushed out of the workforce by retirement, foreign competitiveness, factory automation and artificial intelligence software, the picture is not so nice.



If the Liberal governments had focused on building new houses, condos and multi-tenant buildings, the pro-housing response wouldn’t have been needed. Now Trudeau’s going to plow $40 billion tax payers dollars into another band aid solution.

Screen Capture courtesy of TREBhome.com

It’s another sad act from a government that thinks it’s still 1980. Every decade, including the era of his father, we’ve had the same “government administration and red tape” programs that create crises and then pretend to solve them with expensive government programs.

Having no government at all would be cheaper and more effective. Not that we’re ungrateful for marijuana legalization and methadone clinics.

If government was out of the way, the Toronto housing market would heal and thrive. So would the real estate markets in Vancouver and Calgary.

Check out TREB’s 3rd Quarter Rental market report.

TREB REntal Market Report 3rd Quarter 2017 TREB 3rd Quarter 2017 Rental market report courtesy of Trebhome.com




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Toronto Condo Market Report – Update and Forecast 2017 2018

Toronto Condo Market Forecast 2018

While the Toronto housing market in 2018  is overshadowed by severe house supply shortages and ultra-high prices the condo market in Toronto and Mississauga is an attractive alternative for young buyers.

Sales of condos particularly in the under $500k market are rising and prices have risen as well. The latest Toronto condo market sales report from TREB has ben released. While TREB doesn’t publish stats on the condo market specifically much anymore, you can see the averages for each district below.

Toronto Central, Milton, Oakville, and Peel region continue to enjoy strong market demand while other areas have seen a decline in price since last fall.

The new mortgage rules now enforced means many buyers will only qualify for a much lower mortgage.




You likely have your own opinions about government meddling in the markets, however such interference can be a housing crash factor in itself.

Should you invest in a new or resale Toronto condominium? The Canadian economic Forecast and Toronto economy in particular look very good. That means condos new and old will be in demand next spring from fully employed buyers who have had time to save the big downpayments and meet more stringent lending stress tests.

As mentioned in the Toronto housing report for October, prices for Toronto condos are up 24.5% in the city of Toronto year over year.  Some of this rise is due to the coming mortgage chages. If you need a monster mortgage, you need to get hopping and call a real estate agent.

The issue of whether to buy is one of affordability for Millennial-aged buyers and as many are saving, there will be plenty of demand next spring, putting upward pressure on prices.

Millennials Are Driving The Toronto Condo Market

They’ll need more creative mortgage financing and improved condo searches to find something they can afford. Although the mortgage changes in 2018 will put an extra burden on them, and force them to stay in the rental market, they will likely have more money in the spring to buy a condo.

There’s big investor demand for condos too. Student housing is in a severe crunch in Toronto and Vancouver. Investors are well aware of the rental potential of condos and many may be investing in the Vancouver condo market and here in Toronto because of so much rental demand.

If you can’t earn a profit on capital appreciation, you can still make it on rental income.




Toronto Rents Are About to Rise

A report from BNN shows how rental income properties, including condos in Toronto. See where the big rents are.

Why are Toronto Condos such a Draw?

Toronto Condos offer higher cap rates and a larger growing pool of potential renters and buyers. And at this point with severe shortages of detached houses and townhouses, buyers are buying condos. Barry Fenton, President & CEO of Lanterra Developments, a major condo developer suggested Toronto Condo prices could could have risen 40%. They have reached 20% over this time last year.  The detached housing shortage is still alive.

When foreign investors look to escape their own country’s currency nightmares and leverage our weak loonie, they like the Toronto market. Note: If you’re a foreign real estate investor, people often refer to Toronto as being the greater Toronto area encompassing Oakville, Mississauga, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Scarborough, East York, Pickering and even out to Oshawa. The Newmarket, Bradford, and Aurora regions are included in TREB’s housing sales reports.




Toronto Condo Prices 2017

TREB District Toronto Condo Prices March 2018 Toronto Condo Prices October 2017 Toronto Condo Prices Sept 2017 Toronto Condo Prices August 2017 Sept 2016 March 2012 Price Change over Last 17 months
City of Toronto $651,100 $555,004 $554,069 $550,299 $561,376 $361,800 13.78%
Toronto West $494,400 $446,794 $450,485 $434,218 $487,061 $286,366 1.48%
Toronto Central $656,000 $620,322 $615,654 $615,680 $682,427 $422,396 -4.03%
Toronto East $411,000 $407,775 $395,859 $403,028 $467,689 $237,909 -13.79%
Halton Region $465,300 $478,611 $519,348 $528,579 $485,128 $442,625 -4.26%
Burlington $520,300 $553,029 $514,755 $476,222 $497,800 $370,667 4.32%
Halton Hills $486,300 $516,450 $294,500 $446,971 $381,017 21.65%
Milton $432,000 $413,808 $418,219 $427,594 $406,300 5.95%
Oakville $442,100 $419,438 $606,131 $523,507 $513,682 $485,800 -16.19%
Peel Region $423,600 $389,587 $385,588 $395,188 $461,830 $433,780 -9.03%
Brampton $360,000 $354,618 $336,091 $350,401 $374,596 $351,500 -4.05%
Mississauga $435,000 $395,683 $393,441 $402,344 $485,240 $453,250 -11.55%
York Region $507,000 $495,973 $481,138 $500,456 $544,528 $537,903 -7.40%
Aurora $477,000 $608,750 $562,500 $685,874 $532,785 $525,000 -11.69%
Markham $509,000 $503,796 $486,369 $503,455 $554,643 $527,518 -8.97%
Newmarket $536,000 $416,260 $444,250 $400,340 $496,125 7.44%
Richmond Hill $475,400 $452,319 $446,505 $470,076 $542,470 $596,667 -14.11%
Vaughan $531,000 $532,144 $513,618 $521,400 $593,725 $554,211 -11.81%
Durham Region $407,800 $399,687 $365,297 $376,250 $317,855 $274,350 22.06%
Ajax $396,000 $337,317 $397,125 $379,431 $378,180 $281,688 4.50%
Oshawa $358,000 $302,333 $226,347 $315,075 $243,000 $210,667 32.12%
Pickering $501,000 $448,036 $384,300 $402,316 $396,301 $340,667 20.90%
Whitby $410,000 $448,036 $395,633 $457,143 $344,461 $294,350 15.99%

The Toronto Real Estate Board covers a huge area and below we’ll zero in on communities that may represent the best ones for you to research.

Barry Fenton, President & CEO at Lanterra Developments joins BNN to discuss the Toronto Condo market. He suggests the market is aggressively priced and complains a little about how competitive it is. He says prices will rise 40% but he has a few misgivings about the Toronto Condo market.




Big Demand for Condos as Entry Level Homes

Most home buyers in the Toronto area can only hope to own a condo. Homes are averaging over $1.5 million in some areas in the GTA. And condo developments are offering more for tenants. And perhaps the key feature of Toronto condos is their proximity to work, leisure, restaurants and shopping and freedom from the grinding commute that many Torontonians face each day. So there are good reasons to buy a condo in Toronto.

But the condo investment landscape has recently been darkened by Ontario premier Kathleen Wynne. Her government’s new foreign buyer tax might hit the condo market the hardest, but most credible experts expect demand to return. It’s a short term blip (and as of Dec 2017, the demand for condos did indeed return).

Oddly, the condo market in Toronto is much less volatile than the single housing and townhouse market in Toronto. Her foreign buyer tax and rental price controls look like they’ll miss the mark.

Lets’ take a look at the most recent Toronto condo market prices and then look onward to 2018, 2018, 2019 and 2020. This blurb from the latest TREB condo market report says it all about what’s happening right now in April of 2017:

 

What else is supporting condo sales is proximity to work. Commute times are awful, gas prices are very high, and young millennials are having trouble handling rent/mortgage/ and car payments. Something has to give, so workers are choosing to move into the city near their jobs.

Where are Toronto’s Best Investment Condos?

As the graphic above shows, the top location is Toronto Central (where home prices are highest too), Toronto West and Mississauga. The bulk of these listings are in huge mega-sized condo towers and there are more of them being built. Toronto Central is also close to the U of T, Ryerson, and other colleges where off campus housing is in hot demand. It’s the same situation for Vancouver condo rental and investors should take note.

Toronto’s C02 district is your million dollar listing area. With an average price of $1,050,000 these are your Toronto luxury condos. This area is located just north of Downtown/Bloor st, near the University of Toronto. This suggests that proximity to U of T and downtown offices may be the primer driver of Toronto condo prices and may drive sales of Toronto homes as well.

Screen cap courtesy of the Toronto Real Estate Board. See more at trebhome.com

How Much Have Prices Risen in the Last 5 Years?

Should I Buy a Condo in Toronto?

Should you buy a condo in Toronto, Mississauga, Scarborough, or Brampton?  Demand for condo purchases is rising, the Toronto economy is strong and positive, and rents are rising fast.  At some point, you have to jump in, or you’ll never build homeowner equity.

What to Consider Before you Buy a Condo

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New TREB Report Shows Foreign Buyers Have Minimal Effect on Toronto Housing Market

Foreign Buyers Not Driving Up Prices in Toronto

A new Toronto Real Estate Board investigation has concluded that foreign buyers play a minimal role in Toronto house prices and availability. 3 key findings counter the Wynne government’s insistence that Foreign buyers and house flippers are ruining the housing market.

The report may indicate how government officials haven’t been honest to the public about the cause of high home prices in Toronto — government tax greed and ideology of privilege.

April TREB market report: a growth of 33.6% in home listings in the TREB’s MLS® System in April 2017, at 21,630. Prices rose too.

Tired of Ontario Taxes? Investigate a Costa Rica retirement.

This new finding shows the Foreign Buyers Tax in Toronto (an old school knuckle dragging approach) was a knee jerk reaction by desperate politicians. The sad part is that it could cripple the development of new homes and condos in 2018 and 2019 which would have eased the housing crisis.




It remains to be seen how Toronto condominium developers will react to the Ontario government buyers tax. Currently, the Toronto condo market is alive and healthy. But the housing crisis is unfortunately a sad reality for many Ontarians.

What happened in April 2017?

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark Price was up by 31.7 per cent year-over-year in April 2017. Similarly, the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 24.5 per cent to $920,791. — from report from TREBhome.com




Homeowners are Finally Selling!

On a positive note, and further to the real point of the study, TREB reported that home sellers appear to be loosening their grip on their homes and are putting them up for sale. The long awaited “Great Home Release” is happening now this spring 2017 in a Toronto neighbourhood near you.  tTREB’s Jason Mercer added in the published statement that it will take a long time for the pent up demand to be fulfilled in the GTA area. from the new May report from TREB.

It was encouraging to see a very strong year-over-year increase in new listings. If new listings growth continues to outpace sales growth moving forward, we will start to see more balanced market conditions. It will likely take a number of months to unwind the substantial pent-up demand that has built over the past two years. Expect annual rates of price growth to remain well-above the rate of inflation as we move through the spring and summer months,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.




“TREB strongly believes that public policy decisions with regard to the housing market should be evidence-based and supported by empirical data.”

3 Key Findings that Debunk the Foreign Influence Myth

TREB’s Report summarized these 3 key findings, that debunk the Ontario government’s insistence that foreign buyers and quick investment flips are driving the Toronto housing crisis:

  1. The number of buyers with a mailing address outside of Canada is well-below 1%
  2. Between 2008 and April 2017, the average share of foreign buyers in the Golden Horseshoe area was 2.3%
  3. The majority of foreign buyers – 87% to 90%– purchased their home as a place to live, not as a tax evasion or speculative venture (homes that were bought/sold within a short period of time – within one year of the original transaction by domestic or foreign buyers accounted for a very small share — less than 5% in 2016 and 7% between January and April 2017) of total transactions).

With the above information in hand, what is your opinion of the Ontario government and Mayor John Tory’s stated preference for the Toronto Foreign Buyers Tax? What do you believe is the real purpose of the tax? Will the incoming Ontario government simply get rid of it?  Do you consider the Toronto land transfer tax a fair tax? Do you feel the government is creating the problem with one hand and justifying its role with the other?

Get the full view of the Toronto Real Estate market, along with the Newmarket housing report, and Mississauga housing market report and forecasts.

Should you sell your house fast or for a high price?  In the past 3 months Americans have been selling their home for an average $336,000 more than they paid for it. It’s one more reminder that real estate is where the real money is. And if you’ve been reading my posts, you’ll see that government red tape and land restriction is the real driver of high real estate prices. So if you’re renting, gaining no equity, while your life passes, and can’t come up with hundreds of thousands for a down payment, now you know why. It’s time to speak with your local government representatives about opening up land for development. The alternative is pay the future home prices which could rise another 30% in 2018 (depending on the economy and how well J Trudeau gets along with you know who).

Latest year over year Toronto region home prices (April 2016 to 2017):

Screen Capture courtesy of TREBhome.com




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Ontario Foreign Buyer Tax Short Sighted and Harmful to Economy

Foreign Buyer Tax Doesn’t Help Housing Crisis

As Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne announced the new Foreign Buyers Tax in Toronto recently, she ignored recent stats that showed Vancouver’s use of the money grabbing tax was wearing off.  

And she ignored discussion of housing supply and support of builders, and how housing investment creates jobs and helps pay off our massive provincial debt.

With Wynne’s 14% approval rate, not many of you believe in her and the liberals any longer. They are involved for only one more year yet they can do some damage during that time. The foreign buyer tax, rent controls, and the 14 other housing hacks to suppress Toronto home and condo prices which she’s announced, could have grave long term effects for us all — suppressing investment, drying up rental availability, and raising GTA home prices to ridiculous levels. It’s actually an alarming situation that makes people more concerned about a housing bubble.

Screen cap courtesy of the Globe and Mail

The real problem: Toronto doesn’t have enough housing, people are going homeless or must pay exorbitant rental rates and they can never hope to own a home. Those who want to sell, have nowhere to go. I think it’s obvious, Wynne is the culprit and the reason why home prices are so high.  Wynne takes voters for granted, and takes the tenuous Ontario economy for granted, and she could ruin that too. There’s no time for professional administrators with weird agendas in government anymore. Rent controls have been studied before and pronounced as failures. We need creative entrepreneurs, smart small business people with lots of ideas.

New development in Aurora built on several hectares of scrubland is making home buyers very happy. See ore about new home development in Aurora, Newmarket, and Bradford.

The Solution: we need investment money to build new homes and we need Ontario scrubland freed up for new home development. There’s lots of it – miles of empty vacant land that’s not even good enough for farming. And as I explain in this post, moving investment outside of Toronto is good for everyone.




The so called speculator-fueled housing price fire she blames, is actually fueled by a lack of housing supply in Toronto, which she created and big multidimensional demand from buyers. Speculators know Toronto is desperate for housing and will be for some time. Still investors believe Toronto is a great place to invest.  Not so says Wynne, who pushed her regressive 16 point housing hack. Not freeing up land for housing is a dangerous ploy that could contribute to a recession and make finding a rental unit impossible for millions of house and condo renters.

Quite the contrary to what Wynne stated, real estate investors, house flippers, and land developers contribute a great deal to the economy.

More commentary on the Foreign buyer tax:

ANALYSIS: Beware unintended consequences http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-realestate-future-uncertainty-1.4079431

BC foreign buyer tax: https://renx.ca/british-columbia-foreign-buyer-tax-house-prices/

Ontario Minister tight lipped: http://www.citynews.ca/2017/04/21/minister-cant-say-foreign-buyer-tax-will-affect-housing-market/

Will investment money move out west to Calgary? http://www.660news.com/2017/04/20/foreign-buyers-tax-boost-calgary-real-estate/

Impact of B.C.'s foreign buyer tax wanes as March sales surge almost 50 per cent

 




I like how one writer called Wynne’s housing plan a Potpouri of Politics seemingly to lower rents and ward off a housing crash – destined to failure. And the growing homeless will see no relief.

The problem will never go away, because Toronto is hot. It’s an International mega city and nothing can stop that. Her government’s perversely named Places to Grow legislation — artificially limits housing supply which raises prices. And the new Toronto foreign buyers tax also increases Toronto housing prices since sellers will just add the tax cost to their selling price.

The question really needs to be asked: “Who pushed Wynne to support this ideology of stopping urban growth around Toronto?” Why aren’t the media questioning her ideology and who is behind it?




Currently, real estate is the only sector bringing investment money into Canada and Ontario. Shooting the Golden Goose just seems like a bad idea. If homelessness and lack of hope are a problem now, it’s going to be worse in 2 years.

We don’t need data to know that Foreign investors contribute to our economy.

Toronto is Where the Jobs Are

And Toronto is where Millennials aged home buyers (and new immigrant buyers) are and work. Whether they choose to live in Toronto condos or detached homes in the GTA, they want to live within commuting distance. Wynne doesn’t represent this generation’s quest for the life they want. She’s got an “alternate lifestyle” for all of us featuring poverty, big mortgages, and higher taxes.

Let’s face it, if Kathleen Wynne was your doctor, her special medicine that would shoot your blood pressure to 1000 / 860. After your head explodes she’d prescribe ice packs. The Liberal’s housing hacks are going to stifle investment and lead to higher prices by 2019. But then, she and her government won’t be around to experience the consequences. They’re the most unpopular government ever and will be heading out in the coming election next year.

Som Seif Speaks with Catherine Murray of BNN about Toronto’s future:

Lack of Housing Supply Will Keep Prices High

People have to live somewhere. Hundreds of thousands of new immigrants arrive in Toronto every year looking for homes. They’re not speculators. They want to live here and have their kids educated here. Think about how valuable a North American education is to these new foreign migrants. It’s life changing and gives their kids a big life advantage — perhaps bigger than native Torontonian kids (the forgotten).

Who Will Pay Ontario’s Whopping Debt of $318 Billion?

One way to help pay the whopping Ontario debt would be to graciously approve of foreign investment. Foreign real estate investors are already being taxed and are helping grow our economy by buying in the Ontario housing market.

Wynne also announced a new Mincome program to test out a minimum level guaranteed income for a few select Ontarians. This is probably due to her sponsor’s belief that the future looks grim for Ontarians. Her Apocalypse plan is to contain the Zombie’s within the GTA.  Why not build a fence like Donald Trump is?

Unfortunately with poor Free Trade deals, the picture for our youth is troubling, low waged, insecure, and poverty is growing visibly here in Ontario. With the exception of marijuana and tattoo shops, we have little to brag about. And with tight credit and NAFTA issues looming, you’d have to wonder how Ontario will create jobs.

Wynne’s support of the controversial Places to Grow program is at the bottom of rocketing Toronto home prices. Without land to build on, our thirst for “Places to Live” will never be quenched and prices will keep pushing upward. So her list 16 anti-investment tactics is wrapped within a failing overall strategy that will actually cost Ontario future growth and lead to higher prices.

The Toronto Housing Market Solution is Simple

Freeing up land around Toronto is the solution. There’s tens thousands of hectares of scrubland available for new housing developments (and it’s happening in Bradford, Vaughan, East Gwillimbury, and south of Barrie).

Wynne could create a new program to decentralize the economy away from Toronto and send jobs and good fortune to areas that need it.

The one good thing about the Toronto housing market boom is that money is being pushed outward to places such as Oshawa, Guelph and Barrie infusing those communities with new money. Prices in Barrie have risen 44% in the last year and this migration of investment money is giving Barrie something it rarely gets — investment and hope.




Solving the Housing Crisis

In a previous post I covered 10 ways the Toronto housing crash could be avoided and that Wynne’s government is forcing this housing crisis. The gist of the solution is to use this housing crisis as a reason to encourage investment in smaller communities outside the GTA. Instead of the current housing price spillover effect, why not actively move investment money and jobs outward to places like Barrie, Orillia, Orangeville, North Bay, Sudbury, Belleville, Gelph, Waterloo, London, Sarnia and Windsor?

The Liberal’s Places to Stop Growth plunges these communities into poverty and unwisely pushes intensification in places that don’t need it. These places are intensifying are their own.

Toronto Canada is in demand and the Investment money is already parked here.  Toronto and new incoming millennials intend to get married and start families, and new immigrants will keep adding price pressure. The 16 measures she took won’t work and in fact could stunt Ontario’s economic growth. Soon we will be battling higher rents, higher taxes, higher utilities (if we can find a place to live).

How would you rate the Wynne government’s support of small business? What are the key features of her small business growth support plan?

The foreign buyers tax was used in Vancouver which is much more Asian buyer influenced, and prices are already starting to rise again. They know how it’s all a matter of supply and demand.

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Toronto House Prices

Toronto House Prices – Rise or Fall in 2018?

Toronto house prices in 2018 have taken a somewhat similar downward path as the Real Estate market in Vancouver did in 2017.  This depression may not last long.

Condos in Toronto on the other hand are home buyer’s soup du jour for 2018, 2019, and 2020 because of new mortagage rules and limited availability.  Constructions starts are down due to rent controls and buyer worries over government behanviour.

Both provincial governments took credit for the sales and price drops, but the truth is, is that buyer psychology caused the market to moderate in sales only. Whether buying or renting, prices are high and it’s still a seller’s market.

The Toronto real estate market hasn’t lost much in the way of price even though sales have dropped.  The worrisome aspect of this sudden roller coaster ride of prices is the effect on the Canadian economy which is highly rated, but somewhat insecure.




In Toronto and Vancouver, the downpayment for a home/condo alone, is enough to buy a property outright in most other places across Canada.  Rising private debt, stagnant wages, and low interest rates could be enough to form a bubble and lead to a crash. But most experts feel the Vancouver and Toronto real estate markets will be just fine.




Why these politicians are so adamant in their opposition to housing growth isn’t known. As the NDP government comes into power in BC, prices in Vancouver have begun to advance. As long as housing is in short supply, the price pressure will always be upward. That’s a good cue for all real estate investors.

According to TREB, the MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark price rose 9.7% YoY, in October.  The average selling price for all home types was $780,104 – up by 2.3% compared to the average of $762,691 in October 2016.

Graphic courtesy of TREBhome.com

House Prices in Toronto’s MLS Districts in 2017

Average Prices and Price Growth – Detached Homes TREB 
City October 2017 September 2017 August 2017 July 2017 June 2017 May 2017 April 2016 Price Change Last 17 months Price Change Last 6 Months
Burlington $895,457 $974,446 $944,564 $921,434 $1,071,980 $1,083,144 $961,502 -7% -17%
Halton Hills $787,517 $706,500 $984,812 $819,770 $789,094 $825,058 $828,719 -5% -5%
Milton $884,144 $853,790 $866,650 $875,123 $965,488 $932,899 $765,973 15% -5%
Oakville $1,482,620 $1,393,860 $1,314,363 $1,368,523 $1,312,370 $1,561,514 $1,191,503 24% -5%
Brampton $775,170 $766,132 $766,831 $750,856 $801,246 $871,052 $660,015 17% -11%
Caledon $952,466 $918,712 $1,028,591 $1,083,138 $1,102,645 $1,190,527 $755,494 26% -20%
Mississauga $1,034,338 $1,023,207 $1,066,015 $1,113,952 $1,067,449 $1,136,083 $966,467 7% -9%
Toronto West $1,102,379 $1,015,711 $919,916 $1,131,637 $1,118,602 $1,142,292 $944,422 17% -3%
Toronto Central $2,051,481 $2,302,146 $2,113,130 $2,080,982 $2,199,630 $2,488,673 $1,983,187 3% -18%
Toronto East $931,239 $961,805 $887,620 $949,712 $956,883 $991,509 $860,814 8% -6%
Aurora $1,280,888 $1,458,481 $1,144,094 $1,201,830 $1,225,236 $1,360,696 $1,155,487 11% -6%
E Gwillimbury $1,013,350 $895,119 $966,047 $867,833 $1,074,667 $973,263 $764,055 33% 4%
Georgina $524,735 $600,791 $604,838 $548,543 $652,508 $766,273 $548,886 -4% -32%
King $1,887,696 $2,252,933 $1,768,333 $1,529,767 $1,455,423 $1,756,387 $1,283,432 47% 7%
Markham $1,468,221 $1,358,328 $1,319,860 $1,477,487 $1,423,179 $1,580,570 $1,363,887 8% -7%
Newmarket $916,350 $895,191 $901,055 $901,720 $919,855 $990,592 $841,593 9% -7%
Richmond Hill $1,345,898 $1,401,922 $1,466,884 $1,439,065 $1,675,661 $1,584,327 $1,412,443 -5% -15%
Vaughan $1,280,906 $1,392,781 $1,348,649 $1,273,340 $1,333,412 $1,479,774 $1,191,632 7% -13%
Whitchurch Stouffville $928,551 $1,159,545 $1,024,941 $1,096,864 $1,255,011 $1,343,913 $1,048,658 -11% -31%
Ajax $684,011 $696,604 $708,185 $679,180 $752,997 $814,521 $646,370 6% -16%
Brock $432,318 $513,579 $508,615 $734,896 $706,307 $531,986 $419,758 3% -19%
Oshawa $516,459 $516,904 $550,677 $508,039 $530,780 $570,536 $467,981 10% -9%
Pickering $790,733 $869,546 $812,643 $810,351 $897,685 $668,723 $772,399 2% 18%
Scugog $614,678 $594,062 $719,375 $673,489 $675,887 $673,314 $545,804 13% -9%
Uxbridge $1,031,295 $957,221 $792,233 $793,853 $896,281 $931,841 $798,749 29% 11%
Whitby $695,352 $745,222 $733,811 $765,260 $815,993 $804,322 $618,032 13% -14%
Orangeville $538,518 $594,636 $612,974 $566,438 $585,717 $591,279 $490,825 10% -9%
Innisfil $525,685 $541,274 $549,492 $593,208 $575,940 $762,901 $476,756 10% -31%

Stats above courtesy of TREB Market Watch Report

Toronto House Prices — MLS City Districts Home Price Comparison
TREB District City of Toronto Avg Price October Avg Price Sept Avg Price August Average Price April 2016 Avg Price April 2017 Avg Price Mar 2017 Avg Price Feb 2017 Price Change Since Feb 2017
Toronto W01 $1,709,593 $1,652,600 $1,146,500 $1,405,442 $1,506,333 $1,543,961 $1,496,501 14.2%
Toronto W02 $1,273,391 $1,280,867 $1,172,250 $1,331,780 $1,538,546 $1,381,945 $1,269,501 0.3%
Toronto W03 $741,391 $771,142 $692,125 $666,904 $854,316 $829,396 $819,572 -9.5%
Toronto W04 $840,110 $850,621 $846,775 $786,951 $1,024,908 $1,073,531 $1,049,570 -20.0%
Toronto W05 $874,660 $805,031 $823,767 $749,333 $930,876 $1,073,531 $889,235 -1.6%
Toronto W06 $922,286 $992,023 $797,392 $795,840 $974,420 $1,128,584 $966,571 -4.6%
Toronto W07 $1,474,725 $1,277,336 $973,250 $1,112,233 $1,484,406 $1,352,042 $1,437,219 2.6%
Toronto W08 $1,356,671 $1,247,374 $1,161,882 $1,204,013 $1,544,869 $1,610,163 $1,491,329 -9.0%
Toronto W09 $975,778 $922,000 $1,139,211 $839,479 $1,197,627 $1,115,970 $1,019,588 -4.3%
Toronto W10 $688,011 $661,357 $665,268 $613,488 $831,579 $802,909 $758,259 -9.3%
Toronto C01 $1,393,875 $1,430,667 $1,005,000 $1,528,085 $1,646,240 $1,694,333 $2,352,876 -40.8%
Toronto C02 $2,313,611 $2,242,400 $2,242,750 $1,580,181 $2,710,038 $2,170,853 $2,443,750 -5.3%
Toronto C03 $1,880,584 $1,742,200 $1,317,111 $1,761,787 $2,246,734 $2,473,608 $2,747,397 -31.6%
Toronto C04 $2,220,546 $2,212,838 $2,200,398 $2,033,140 $2,583,667 $2,245,813 $2,469,565 -10.1%
Toronto C06 $1,243,727 $1,327,467 $1,445,556 $1,318,750 $1,625,779 $1,811,183 $1,516,558 -18.0%
Toronto C07 $1,741,987 $1,903,632 $1,776,771 $1,657,822 $2,004,585 $2,155,365 $1,922,347 -9.4%
Toronto C08 $814,000 $1,700,000 $1,603,333 $2,100,833 $1,625,000 $1,999,000 -59.3%
Toronto C09 $3,414,450 $2,916,750 $3,500,000 $2,998,401 $3,246,445 $4,481,000 $4,160,891 -17.9%
Toronto C10 $1,807,154 $1,747,079 $1,473,125 $1,864,333 $1,945,104 $1,786,091 $2,146,833 -15.8%
Toronto C11 $1,895,636 $2,137,000 $1,547,000 $1,542,867 $2,275,117 $2,201,462 $2,162,613 -12.3%
Toronto C12 $3,775,636 $5,160,518 $3,910,000 $3,141,244 $3,969,281 $4,420,370 $3,986,692 -5.3%
Toronto C13 $1,520,151 $2,110,709 $1,788,465 $1,926,266 $2,606,111 $2,108,137 $2,204,960 -31.1%
Toronto C14 $2,001,750 $2,249,879 $3,055,823 $1,996,137 $2,554,047 $2,673,112 $2,746,606 -27.1%
Toronto C15 $1,944,667 $1,832,921 $1,602,033 $1,766,219 $2,144,120 $2,108,137 $2,145,518 -9.4%
Toronto E01 $1,135,156 $1,196,542 $1,224,440 $1,164,343 $1,747,894 $1,206,359 $1,221,833 -7.1%
Toronto E02 $1,494,639 $1,625,074 $1,414,357 $1,333,475 $1,458,167 $1,507,090 $1,622,159 -7.9%
Toronto E03 $1,023,487 $1,038,377 $956,448 $947,611 $1,099,537 $1,121,847 $1,134,094 -9.8%
Toronto E04 $768,002 $794,523 $772,883 $717,890 $897,304 $889,018 $928,362 -17.3%
Toronto E05 $1,019,362 $979,800 $995,190 $991,136 $1,249,824 $1,303,892 $1,262,751 -19.3%
Toronto E06 $766,159 $926,615 $841,995 $766,782 $1,051,918 $1,102,286 $940,073 -18.5%
Toronto E07 $897,653 $1,025,444 $922,600 $874,280 $1,164,819 $1,142,611 $1,111,507 -19.2%
Toronto E08 $1,014,526 $852,070 $872,641 $810,560 $1,066,868 $1,092,667 $1,025,958 -1.1%
Toronto E09 $739,871 $690,382 $699,646 $664,378 $855,363 $895,417 $855,064 -13.5%
Toronto E10 $897,856 $944,666 $883,852 $821,126 $1,067,925 $1,069,906 $981,789 -8.5%
Toronto E11 $758,288 $778,100 $780,618 $720,672 $842,414 $851,750 $761,409 -0.4%

If you examine the latest house price trends in the GTA, you’ll see moderation, yet not all TREB districts saw reductions. In some areas, they’re still climbing almost in defiance of any market meddling.

For sellers, the agonizing questions of whether they should sell now, is being solved. They held on to get the highest price and are eager now to unload their property. Some got too greedy and are accepting up to $300k less than last spring’s offers. Timing is everything in real estate.

A lack of housing supply will keep prices up for many years ahead. The Ontario governmet is more concerned with rising rents than it is in encouraging new construction.  Rent contorls are already drying up up the availability of rental properties.

Currently, the condo market is thriving, however once the new construction condos have been sold and occupied, prices overall will climb.




Home Price Index for Toronto vs rest of Canada courtesy of Terranet National Bank housing index.

Toronto Home Prices june 2017

That Old House means so much more to buyers. They have the vision, the dream and they’re willing part with $1.5 million to live the dream. If you’ve got a home to sell right now, you need to hire a Realtor and capitalize on this glorious market opportunity.

The Mindset of Homeowners Who Need to Move on

Realtors need to be more psychologically aware and effective by adopting the mindset and vocabulary of the very people who move on. What words, phrases, images and activities do optimistic home sellers use? Retirees and 45+ people have priorities. Find them and speak their dreams.

And if you’re thinking of selling your Toronto home you need to use that vocabulary too. There is an incredible array of lifestyle opportunities for you. The world has never offered so much for the International home buyer. No homes in Ontario? No problem, beautiful places such as Costa Rica, Belize, Nicaragua, Mexico, Chile, and Dominican Republic await.

Why do people settle for a lesser life than they can have?

When Will Toronto’s Market Crash?

There may not be a crash, but no one is saying that for sure.

The Toronto Housing crisis is one partly of homeowners never dreaming that they get this kind of ROI out of the old house they bought. None of us were trained or educated for this opportunity. The result is too many older people hanging onto their homes, more out of being confused and unprepared to progress with their lives.

If you have a good Toronto Realtor, you really can sell your home at above expectations. Above asking is easy. Don’t even mention above asking, since everyone is using the lowball strategy to create bidding wars. Houses are selling for outrageous prices because Realtors are smart about building big demand from the right people.




Best Return Ever in Toronto

Even with foreign buyers out of the picture, demand for housing is huge in Toronto. From Mississauga, to Newmarket to Vaughan and Oshawa, people crave homes. And single detached homes with yards are the holy grail. So rare, so pleasant and rewarding some will sell their soul to the devil to be a homeowner. You don’t have to sell the joy of ownership theme to them.

So what are you doing right now to move forward and capitalize on the “Best Investment Return ever?” It’s not too late. I hope you’re contacting a good Realtor right now and beginning the selling preparation process.

Don’t sell your house in 3 days. Take your time and sell it for $75,000 more. It’s your hard earned investment and you deserve the best. Always think highly of yourself. Your Realtor will have lots of ideas about how to make the buyers very happy and contented. The improvements on your home for instance will add value and carry them forward.

I’ve written a variety of posts on selling your house, how now is the time to sell your house, and about retiring pleasantly in Central America. Time to travel, time to really enjoy life away from the city, and your time to celebrate your life. Sell that home!

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Toronto Housing Market Crash Getting Closer?

When Will Toronto’s Real Estate Market Crash?

The experts have been calling for a Toronto Housing Crash for several years now, but it never happened. But is time finally running out?

What happens before a Housing Crash? This is the question more people are asking.  If Toronto’s economy is strong, could a crash possibly occur? Do we need to know the factors? If housing does crash, that doesn’t mean the economy would crash would it?

Canada is now a real estate nation, with little else to keep the economy from sinking into an even deeper funk — in the Globe and Mail.

Every month in 2017, brings a new context with new threats. And when prices are this high, perhaps down is the only direction? Some writers in the media including Gordon Pape the finance guru, and Douglas Porter of BMO are hinting about a housing crash.

What are the current issues people are discussing?

  • first time buyers – are they over-leveraged, seriously in debt and able to pay higher mortgage payments?
  • are homeowners exposed to higher mortgage rates?
  • is the renegotiation of NAFTA going to create a wave of mortgage defaults and business failures?
  • fast rise of home prices – going vertical on charts can’t continue
  • what are speculators and the media saying about the market?
  • will Chinese buyers disappear from the market?

In the first 2 months of 2017 have prices in Toronto have been rocketing. March to June, prices will launch into the stratosphere.

According to the Toronto Real Estate Board, active listings in the GTA were down by 50.5 per cent in February compared with the same period last year.  “Inventory hasn’t been this low in 15 years.” from a news post in the Globe and Mail.

Chart courtesy of Trebhome.com

What Causes a Real Estate Bubble and Housing Market Crash?

A Real Estate bubble happens when prices become inflated well beyond their apparent or historical value. Reality may be ready to snap them back to normal. The excessively high prices mean some buyers are likely over leveraged or in financial risk. If the market plummets they will be holding an “underwater mortgage” where they owe much more than the home is worth. They could decide to abandon the home as was evident in past recessions.

There are so many housing crash indicators to consider that even experts and mortgage corporation CEOs can’t provide a very good forecast. And past crashes may not give us any clues. But one insidious factor might be most telling even more than prices — that the economy can’t support it and wage performance in Toronto isn’t good — homeowners really are overleveraged. CMHC has sounded the warning, doing what they can to stop first time buyers from being future victims. Homeowner’s financial position is likely worsening and they’re increasingly in danger of default.

I’m not a qualified housing market economist but who is? You can read forecasts from 4 years ago from the experts who got demand wrong, bubble forecasts wrong, and made other embarassing statements such as “Toronto’s condo glut.” It’s a lot of guesswork. If you’re well to do, the price crash might not mean much, but a housing crash could bring the Ontario economy and indebted Ontario government crashing down. That’s when all hell breaks loose.


Save Money on Auto Insurance in Toronto

It’s almost certain that your auto premiums are high.  Shop around and a low Toronto car insurance quote online.  Some postal codes and neighborhoods are subject to higher premiums. I hop you’re not going to go alone with that? You work hard for you money, so finding lower car insurance rates is a sign of self-respect. Let’s get shopping for the lowest auto insurance in Toronto.

When Will the Housing Crash Happen?

A housing crash occurs when housing prices plummet, due to economic failure, or to a wave of sellers who dump their properties onto the market in desperation to sell them. As in 2007 in the US, if defaults occur, it could bring down the market including mortgage lenders, sending it spiralling downward for years. The US housing crash brought the whole economy down and the damage spread internationally due to economic integration and capital flight.

Canadians, including Torontonians are deep in personal debt and first time buyers may have big student loan debt. Wealthy people would be quick to sell to protect their own fortunes. Once the fuse is lit, we can expect terrible consequences.

What do The Home Builders Think of the Toronto Market?

Are builders jumping into the Toronto market with both feet? That’s a good sign of market direction, because new home development builders have a lot on the line if the Toronto economy should tank. They’d be exposed for hundreds of millions of dollars.

Yet if you look up in Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora and especially Bradford West Gwillimbury, you’d see massive developments going full steam ahead. In East Gwillimbury, one development just north of Green Lane in Sharon, will have 9000 new homes. Builders seem pretty confident they’re going to sell them all. And generally, they’re sold quick and at very high prices. Chinese buyers are still supporting the market however, buyers from the Toronto area are keenly interested in York Region.

Selling Your Home in 2017

I’m getting more frequent inquiries from Toronto area home buyers and I expect that to grow. They can sense the possibility of the Toronto housing bubble bursting, and that now is the right time to sell their Toronto or Mississauga home and make the migration north. It is a wise time to sell your home anywhere in the Toronto region and settle into something cheaper. We will never see the winfall homeowners are getting now from selling, again in our lifetime.

If you are ready to sell, why not contact me to help you get the best price for your Toronto or Mississauga home? You’ll get an experienced and helpful Realtor to get it sold fast, but for a fanastic price. You won’t be even thinking about their commission.

When the next recession happens, all those who didn’t sell will look back with regrets. The opportunity to benefit by hundreds of thousands of dollars is no laughing matter. You can sell now and move to Costa Rica, Palm Beach Florida, Kelowna BC, Arizona, or Belize and live a wondrously happy existence.

The Kids Will Be Happy and So Will You

Some don’t sell their house because they don’t want to uproot their kids. But kids are resilient, and 100s of thousands of dollars buys a lot of health, high quality education and other youth development benefits. Think how nice that could be?

It may take another year or two before the bubble bursts, buy why wait? You have the big winfall now. If you’re a babyboomer, did you work hard all those years to sit in a house that needs constant repair? Come on, you deserve better than that.

Contact me and I’ll help you get launched on the whole process and get you moving onto a better life. My Realtor associates in your town will do a market valuation and then help you optimize your property for sale. This is an exciting time for you, your spouse and family. Suddenly, you have options you never dreamed of. Be happy and let’s get started!  — Gord

When should I Sell My House? | RETS IDX | Zillow Home Search | First Time Home Buyers | Canadian Home Buyers Guide

US Buyers Guide to Canadian Real Estate

Canadian Real Estate Buyers Guide!

Buy or sell when the market is moving. With the Tax Cuts and Jobs Bill, the US economy is surging. Tax cuts mean Americans will have more money, yet the US real estate market isn’t as attractive anymore.

US real estate prices may fall while the US dollar is falling in value.  Investors are looking for better investments, and although the Toronto and Vancouver markets are stagnating at present, they will likely start to surge in June.

With the prices of oil and Canadian interest rates up, the Canadian dollar is rising (now over 81 cents US). That makes Canadian real estate a worthy in investment, particularly as a rental income property in markets where rental units are shrinking.




The fall of the US housing market and Canadian housing market have been heading in opposite directions as we enter into 2018. With the US dollar forecast to fall, Americans may improve their capital gains in the Toronto, Calgary or Vancouver markets.

The 25 cent bonus on the USD/CAD exchange rate at a time when home prices are in a temporary lull could give US property buyers a 30% premium or more when purchasing homes or condos for sale in Canada.




That’s not all. Right now in early 2018, outside of the Vancouver and Toronto regions, in cities such as Edmonton, Calgary, Saskatoon and St Johns, real estate values are very low, giving you even more purchasing power. Experts are suggesting prices will go much higher due the housing crisis. Homes and Condos are in short supply and are bought quickly.

A 25% Bonus:  It’s a very positive environment for investors and well worth learning more about.




If the Canadian economy grows alongside of the US economy, we could see very ideal conditions for buying Canadian homes, condos and cottages, and even rental property during the next 6 months in Canada.

You  may never have such amazing purchasing power for your money again. It’s worth it to contact a realtor here in Canada and inquire about homes for sale.

Prices are rising moderately in Toronto, but there are homes for sale in all regions. You can check now for new homes for sale in Toronto, Mississauga, new homes in Vaughan, new homes in Newmarket, and Bradford just outside of Toronto. Why Toronto?

Do you know anyone looking for a safe investment with a 30% ROI that’s growing? Make sure they see this!




Vancouver has a foreign buyers tax which will erode your return and wealth. Vancouver is discouraging further investment. They don’t want your money. Toronto on the other hand is open to such investment and has a huge number of Toronto condos being constructed.

There are huge housing developments such as in Vaughan and Bradford where thousands of new homes are being built. If you prefer new properties to rent out, as an income investment, this might be a good target for you. The hot ticket for investors right now is rental property investment.

Your Guide to Real Estate Investment Opportunities Here in Canada

The purpose of this guide is to make you aware, and give you some information on how to go about investing in real estate in Canada.

Liberal Foreign Ownership in Canada

Canada is a politically stable, low risk and safe place to invest and it is open to foreign investment. While some provinces have limits on foreign ownership of land, Canada is for the most part wide open to foreign real estate investors. There are no taxes on buying property in Canada, however you will be taxed when you sell. With Canadian mortgage rates so low right, and with not much increase expected, it may be wise to use a Canadian mortgage financing company to purchase your property. However, you could use your own bank.

To understand all the legal requirements necessary to buy property in Canada and obtain mortgage financing, it is wise to contact a licensed Realtor in Canada.




Best Places Buy Homes in Canada

The investment landscape is always changing and certain regions of Canada are amidst different circumstances. Vancouver has just gone through a real estate boom and the local government has imposed taxes to discourage foreign investment.

Toronto is a very hot real estate market and low housing availability and other conditions will keep prices high for sometime. Prices in the greater Vancouver and Toronto regions are high.

Canadian government policies have sought to restrict first time buyers who may lack the financial resources and be carrying too much debt to buy a home. This is a precautionary measure and may impact your attempt to obtain financing from a Canadian bank or mortgage company.

Kelowna BC is not impacted by a foreign buyers tax and is currently in high demand. Calgary and Edmonton’s real estate market is flat and could represent an ideal purchase. However, the oil and gas sector may not return to health for many years. Areas and towns outside of Toronto have not seen the huge price increases, thus may offer better ROI than a condo in downtown Toronto.

Finding a Good Realtor

There are tens of thousands of Realtors to choose from in BC, Alberta and Ontario, however most are inexperienced agents without connections, expertise, market knowledge, or marketing power, and other are near retirement with insufficient motivation to work hard for you. To find a good real estate agent, you’ll want to review their online presence. Do they have at least one website and social pages where you can get to know them? Transparency and marketing effort are important.
You can search for a Canadian realtor line via google.ca, or through realtor.ca, or reco.on.ca. Ontario realtors are licensed and governed by RECO or the Real Estate Council of Ontario. You can get answers to a lot of questions on the RECO website, however, you’d be better advised to speak to a Realtor to save some time on your information search and avoid becoming confused and demotivated.

Your interest in buying Canadian real estate is wise. Keep your intent alive by speaking to a real, licensed Toronto area Realtor right now.




Realtor™ and Legal Fees

There are negotiable and set fees when buying real estate via a Realtor™. The realtor will typically be paid up to 2.5% of the sale price of the property. The buying agent and selling agent will split up to a 6% transaction fee. However, there is no limit on Realtor™ fees. It may be wise to avoid a Realtor™ who charges low fees, as they may be reluctant to put a good effort in for you. That lack of time and resources could translate to poor buying decisions. Given the massive return on investment possible during these times, it’s wise to pay a Realtor™ their normal fee so you receive their full attention and support.

Other Fees

When you purchase a home or condo, new or old, you may be required to pay a deposit, appraisal fees, home inspection fee, survey or certificate of location cost, title insurance, land registration fees, water test, septic tests, Estoppel Certificate fees, and condo or strata fees, property taxes. This is why hiring a knowledgeable Realtor™ is wise. No purchase of real estate is without risk.

Financing

If you need financing to buy a property in Canada, you can obtain it via Canadian banks or what’s called the secondary mortgage market. Banks or mortgage brokers are a good choice depending on your credit situation. These lenders are more amenable to lending when the property is located in Canada. Secondary mortgage lenders may require more collateral and charge higher mortgage rates and fees, while banks may not lend you money if you are considered to much of a risk. You will need to provide documents related to your financial wealth, income and credit worthiness when you apply for a mortgage in Canada.

You can also use US banks for financing and the advantage is that you have a credit rating in the US, which US lenders might have more respect for. However, legal agreements between the US and Canada, give lenders the ability to collect on debts, so don’t think that because the property is in Canada, that it’s an issue. The lenders know they can foreclose on the property if you’re in default of payments.

You may have to pay a down payment of up to 35% of the property. It’s important to remember that is hard to verify credit worthiness of a foreign buyer and more challenging to collect on money’s owed. You can expect to pay higher rates because of the increased risk.

Canada’s CMHC offers mortgage insurance for home buyers who can’t pay the normal downpayment requirement of 20%.

Housing and Capital Gains Taxes

On purchase, you don’t have to pay taxes on property. Taxes such as the Ontario land transfer tax, Toronto land transfer tax, and British Columbia’s foreign buyer tax are payable by the seller. However, they do raise your purchase price since the charge will be passed onto you as part of the purchase price.

Non-Resident Income Tax: You will be subject to a non-resident withholding tax of 25% of the gross sales price. You can request to have the non-resident tax withheld on the net capital gain on the disposition instead of the gross sales price.  You can fill out the required forms with the Canada Revenue Agency and also obtain a Certificate of Compliance. You must notify RCA within 10 days of selling the property.

Canadian Mortgage Insurance

If you finance your home and need to take out an extra loan to help with the downpayent, you are required to purchase homebuyers mortgage default insurance. Canada’s CMHC provides mortgage loan insurance that enables you to buy a home with a minimum down payment starting at 5% of purchase price. Find out more at CMHC.

If you finance the purchase, your mortgage provider will require you to carry homeowners insurance to protect the value of the home or condo.

Putting an Offer on a Property

To find a good home, condo or property to buy, read the homes for sale tips page to whet your appetite and gauge the prices and types of homes available here in Canada. Areas such as Toronto, Mississauga, Newmarket and Vaughan are ones you may feel safer in investing in. Visit the pages covering new homes in Newmarket, new homes in Bradford, and new homes in Vaughan to learn more about housing developers here.

An offer is a formal, legal proposal to purchase a property. You can put forward a written offer to purchase with it may be a conditional one or unconditional one. Conditional ones have to do with on approved financing or the repair of certain features of the property before title transfer.




Your purchase offer, created and reviewed by your Realtor™ and real estate lawyer will often include:

  • your name, the name of the person selling the home and the address of the house or condo
  • the price you are offering to purchase
  • any items in the home that you want to have included in the purchase price and repairs that must be completed
    financial details, such as the amount of the deposit you are including, any payable interest on that deposit, and whether you’re paying a straight, all cash payment
  • the details of your mortgage financing
  • the closing date for the sale and the date of possession of the property (normally 30 to 90 days from the date of the signed agreement)
  • a request to the seller for a copy of a current land survey
  • the expiry date (the date the offer ends any conditions you demand such as passing a home inspection




Accepting the Offer

The buyer can and often will make a counter offer to yours. The market in Toronto and Vancouver is scarce giving buyers the ability to demand a higher price. If the seller accepts your offer, then on closing day (date you take possession), your lender will forward the moneis to your lawyer or notary all the money from your mortgage. You will also provide to your lawyers, your down payment usually with a certified cheque. The lawyer or notary will then pay all the fees and other costs for you, and send all the money to the seller’s lawyer. Your lawyer or notary will then register the property in your name, and send the deed and keys to you.

The property is now yours and you are considered the title owner of the property (as governed by the Ontario land titles system), registered in the specific province where you bought the property.

The Buyer’s Guide to Buying Canadian real estate is presented as a helper to give you an overview of how to buy property in Canada. For accurate advice and legal counsel on purchasing property, please speak with a licensed realtor or real estate lawyer.

Best Cities to Invest In Canada?

 

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Learn more about the 2 hottest housing markets: The Toronto Real Estate Market and the Mississauga Real Estate Market.




The above information is not intended as professional advice to buy or sell property, but only as an encouragement to seek out the assistance of a licensed Realtor, Canadian investment advisor, mortgage broker or other professional for you to explore current opportunities. Political, legal, currency and other factors may reduce the return you receive on your real estate investment.

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Toronto Homes for Sale – Houses Condos Townhouses TREB MLS Private Listings

Buy a Home in Toronto, Canada

Most people from the US, UK or other countries like Toronto a lot. One thing for sure, they’re coming here to buy homes and property. The really smart ones will buy property. Because, property is really rare and can be more easily built to purpose.

Yet, the real demand is for homes. New homes are purchased very quickly  in the Toronto area. They’re a rare find.  While you can find new homes for sale in Mississauga, Newmarket, Aurora, Bradford, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Markham, and Milton, an older home in an established neighbourhood provides the real comfort you’re seeking. The strong interest on my site for homes for sale in Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, and Vaughan reveals that many Toronto homeowners are looking to sell their $1 Million dollar home and move north.

You won’t have any trouble selling your Toronto home. There are all cash buyers from countries around the world as well as buyers right here in Toronto. What you need help with is finding a new community and neighbourhood, and plan how you’ll invest the winfall from selling your home.  The key is to find a good Realtor™ in Toronto to help guide your choice.

Check homes for sale in Toronto Right now at HomesforSaleGallery.ca – Full MLS Listings!

Where are Chinese/Asian Buyers Buying Homes?

I’d like to Welcome visitors from the Middle East, China, Malaysia, Germany, and Hong Kong. Your choice to invest in Canada and move here is good for you and good for us. Truth is, foreign investment in Canada is at an all time low and this is hurting our economy. An improving economy, lower Canadian dollar means you’re investing in property that will appreciate.

These problems will be resolved soon, as the US begins to bring jobs back to its country. Selling your home and buying one in Canada is wise – Canada will benefit from economic and cultural improvment in the US regeneration in the US. The US has had terrible troubles in the last few decades, but looks to be ready to climb out of their depressed state.




Canada is safe, healthy, and different races and nationalities get along together as well as in any country in the world. Let’s not forget that Canada is a capitalist country and it is competitive. Come here with an open-minded, entrepreneurial attitude and you’ll fit in nicely.

Toronto Real Estate Charts (from TREB)

Here’s what has happened throughout the greater Toronto region. Please see the homes for sale Newmarket, homes for sale Vaughan, homes for sale Mississauga, York Region, and homes for sale Bradford pages for more detailed insight.

 

Screen Capture courtesy of the Toronto Real Estate Board

 

Screen Capture courtesy of Toronto Real Estate Board

What are The Best Neighbourhoods to Buy a Home in Toronto?

There’s no real answer to that question. I know people living across the greater Toronto region and each of them believe they live in the best neighbourhood.  Your choice of where to buy a home here will be conditioned by where you want to work.  Transportation routes aren’t good. I worked 30 km from my home and it was a 1 hour commute to work every day. When it snows, it’s worse.

A huge number of people work to downtown Toronto, which may appeal to you if you’re from a crowded city in China or Hong Kong. There are a lot of existing condos and many new ones being built. I have friends from Hong Kong and China who live well north of Toronto in Bradford, Aurora, Newmarket. Have a look!  They’ve purchased large detached homes and they enjoy the more rural lifestyle with clean air and very good schools for their kids.

Cities such as Newmarket, Vaughan, Milton, Oshawa are in very high demand.  Homes in some Toronto districts are pricey, but likely not out of your range. If you can spend $2 million+, the area of King City and King township may interest you. This is where the wealthy are moving to. Magna International is an auto parts manufacturer in the area. This company is set to explode in growth due to its supply of parts for self-driving cars. Magna’s new headquarters will be in King township (north of Vaughan, west of Aurora)

If you have a modest budget, homes in Bradford, Orangeville, Stouffville, Keswick may have the least expensive prices for detached homes. For find condos for sale, Mississauga and North York are your best choices. Toronto and Mississauga are large cities and there are condos for sale across them.

If you need help with finding Toronto homes for sale, and advice on buying a home in Toronto, please Contact my business partner Damir Strk (homesforsalegallery.ca) for reliable, trusted assistance.  His experience with the Toronto and Mississauga real estate market will be a big asset for you as a buyer or real estate investor.

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