Stock Market Forecast
Stock Market

Stock Market Forecast 2022 Predictions & Outlook

Stock Market Had Bad Week

After 4 straight days of losses, the Dow Jones (down 684.78), S&P (down 71) and NASDAQ (down 241) lost further ground on Friday.  Goldman Sachs suggests the market is at mid peak and it’s all downhill from here. There are investors buying the dips however.

Learn more about equity markets below with data from many reliable sources.

The reopening trade has been suppressed by continuous Covid resurgence, something that is hard to predict.  For the 3 month forecast period, it’s a precarious situation but through 6 month time frame, we’re back into the spring reopening season. That looks good! Of course, 2023 is just ahead so you have only about a year left to pick your horses for the longer haul.

Sell Stocks, Buy Bitcoin?

What about the Bitcoin forecast? Some are suggesting Bitcoin is a hedge against a market crash. Bitcoin’s outlook was strong, but it is purely speculative. Adherents believe that Cryptocurrency must be accepted and integrated into our economic and financial system as a store of value and currency.

But Bitcoin may or may not be part of that future. Governments are ready to regulate Bitcoin, because systems cannot work with a highly volatile currency which is based on speculation only. A big drop is going to happen when Bitcoin investors realize what regulation fully means. A fascinating issue which very few people understand.

Stock Market Sept 12, 2021:

The outlook for Tomorrow and next week and the next 6 months looks positive (with big correction worries). Oil is now dropping, although experts feel this temporary and US dollar is rising due to positive economic data. Check out best stocks to buy right now, best stocks for hedging a recession, and how to handle this fall correction.

S&P 500 : 4,458.58 ↓
Dow Jones 30 : 34,607.72 ↓
Nasdaq : 15,115.59 ↓
Russell 2000 : 2,227.55 ↓
Crude Oil : $69.71 a barrel ↑
Gold : $1,788.20 per ounce ↓
US Dollar : $92.64 ↑

10 to 15% Corrections Coming in the Fall?

You can read more about the full signals and threats that may precede the next stock market crash, but we’ve still got some time before political battles, debt, and tapering government spending/stimulus will make it tough in 2023. Of course, no one wants to think about that, but it comes back to how competitive and productive US industry can be.

China didn’t incur as much debt during the Wuhan virus pandemic.  Their economy’s is down but they’re ready to manufacture more goods for American consumers and to capitalize on the big Biden stimulus spend planned ($5 Trillion), although it looks like that spending bonanaze is not going to happen (Republicans are getting angry).

The question will be about how and if the US economy can regain its competitiveness.  The direction of the US dollar will be important for the 5 Year Stock Market Forecast. Forecasts are for a rising dollar which will erode US competitiveness. The role of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency may play into US dollar value and into US competitiveness. See the Bitcoin Forecast.

There are fears for the market forecast for this fall season. Some like Tom Lee of Funstradt are warning of an October correction. Sept is the S&Ps worst month and there’s not many catalysts to lift the markets ahead.  The ending of Federal stimulus checks for tens of millions of Americans is bound to send a shock into the economy, and when this is reported to retail investors and fund managers, we’ll likely see the stock market sink. Evictions of renters (eviction moratorium) is another negative that could worsen a fall downtrend and re-energize politics.

Federal Stimulus – When Will it End?

Investors are likely heavily focused on Fed statements about tapering asset purchases and keeping interest rates low and this depresses the US dollar. But more is happening than interest rates. Politics is huge.

The Democrat media isn’t reporting any negativity, but it may not be able to keep funds flowing. Democrats are completely dependent on stimulus spending and without it, they’re doomed.  And some Democrats are balking at Biden’s huge spending plan. In 2022, the Republicans will have their first moment to regain power and shut the Democrats down.

This fall seasons market corrections aren’t the much feared and anticipated stock market crash of course, just an early tremor hitting a hastily built artificial foundation (house of cards) that hasn’t been tested against real shockwaves.

Investors should be looking hard beyond 3 months to the 6 month forecast into 2022 and to the types of stocks that can weather a crash. If retail investors think they can pick individual winning stocks, then they’ll want to focus fully on that.

Here are Barchart’s picks as the best stocks to buy right now:

Best Stocks to Buy. Screenshot courtesy of Barchart.com

Below, you’ll find more charts, data, and insights about the best stocks to buy, and links to valuable resources to help invest wiser and a simple, clear fashion. Data changes week to week and can be a source of confusion.

Trading View’s S&P technical analysis indicators however, are showing positive.

Technical Analysis Indicators. Screenshot courtesy of Trading View.

One expert, Emily Roland, an investment strategist with John Hancock Investment Management suggests that despite the record stock market prices right now, the easy wins of the past may be over. Now investors will need to use their own prediction skills to research stocks and sectors well to create winning trades. 2022 could be a good year, unless the Biden administration runs afoul further. The Afghanistan problem could be the “war” factor that could launch another 911 event.

Yahoo Finance – Is Peak Behind us or Ahead of Us?

Yahoo Finance — Earnings to keep powering stock price growth and stimulus is just ahead. How could peak growth be behind us?

For the 6 Month and Long Term Forecast

Everyone is wondering what will support earnings and higher stock prices for the next 6 months. Back to school, reopening, and Xmas season will give it a big lift.  That’s a rosy forecast even without $5 trillion in stimulus spending.

Make the next 6 months forecast a study, but don’t take your eye off the ball for the 5 year to 10 year outlookOil stocks look good for the next few years, but 5G stocks may be the best best. And Bitcoin is a fun gamble?  It jumped again last week.  What’s driving the price of Bitcoin?

See reports on the Dow Jones, S&P, Russell 2000, NASDAQ and the FAANG stocks. Google, Facebook, Amazon and Tesla have dominant market leadership, the key to outstanding profit. It’s hard to argue against Google and Facebook as we head back into the holiday and winter season. People will move back indoors to their digital worlds.

Stock Market Performance This Week

Today, and this week, the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq rose, and word is, that small caps have a better outlook. The Russell 2000 and the small caps are suffering due to the slow pandemic recovery, less travel than expected (Delta variant) and the well publicized high infection rates in some states.

During the last two weeks, a number of key companies in the markets have reported earnings including Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Facebook all reported big jumps in Q2 earnings. Google has consistently beat earnings expectations and the result is continued upward pressure on Google stock price.

And the meaning of new infrastructure isn’t appreciated as much as it should. If the US wants to keep its competitive trade possession and ween off of China, it must have a similar modern economic and business infrastructure. The Republicans claim private business will invest, but such trillion dollar investments can only come from the government. If Biden can get this through, it will mean a big of confidence in the United States.

With the infrastructure deal nearing, it may be more difficult for the media to keep it negative, and we might actually see a jump in stock market indexes. The multi-trillion dollar infrastructure deal is big news and if the Republicans can force the Democrats to keep it real, money could go where business needs it to be.

Sector Watch

Financials, communications, materials and industrials have shown the best results for the last 12 months, however in this past 5 days, financials, energy and industrials have been the sectors to watch. With oil prices rising and the reopening recovery picking up speed, we might finally see the consumer sectors begin to pick up.

S&P Sector Performance for the last 12 Months

Top Performing Sectors this week. Screenshot courtesy of Barchart.

S&P Sector Performance for the last 12 Months

Top Performing Sectors this past year. Screenshot courtesy of Barchart.

And here are the best of the best finance stocks this week:

Top performing financial sector stocks. Screenshot courtesy of Barchart.

See more on the best picks for 2022 and best tech stocks to buy and which stocks you may want to part with. Why 2023? 2023 is the year we see interest rates rise and government stimulus easing and quantitative easing finally ending. It can’t go on forever.

Which oil stocks and gold stocks might be a good choice?  If the 5 year or 10 year outlook is your interest, you should definitely research 5G stocks.  5G technology will underpin more of the consumer and business communications market. It’s high speed with anywhere connectivity and is spawning many new for profit business models.

What are the Biggest Threats to the Stock Market?

Stock market investors and those invested in the real estate market are trying to visualize the key threats that might cause a lot of pain. If you read the stock market crash report, you’ll get a good look at all the crash signals and factors that may lead to big investment losses.  Pay attention to those stocks that might be good hedges against a correction or downturn and which securities you should not buy.

Aside from inflation, and high gasoline prices, the biggest risk now may be trade with the Chinese communist government. The smashing of bloody heads against the wall of steel was just the beginning of that conversation. Trust in China is very low and likely will sink further. If US companies become the new source for buyers in Europe and North America, it is a big positive.

Stocks on the China on Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index have plunged 15% in the last two, mostly due to sudden new regulations. That’s $770 billion wiped out and most of it for US investors. Will the Biden regime tolerate this kind of loss?  It’s erratic behavior like this is why investing in China is unwise, even for those with money to burn. It’s the hotel California of investing.  Very risky.

Please do familiarize yourself with all the threats to the market whether you believe in a crash coming or not. The 2022 mid term senate elections will be a critical test of American’s patience. At that time, all of border migration, inflation, housing, taliban/issis issues will come crashing down on domestic markets and stock prices.

Investors are into the big tech stocks but the anti-trust hearings could shake out some of them. If the economy expands fast, public pressure to do something about Google, Amazon, Facebook and other monopolies might fade.

DOJ action has faded before with no action so we wonder if this is just more theatre before the three of them plan spacetrips to the Sun. Most investors believe the big tech stocks are a safe haven in a threatening, volatile stock market. As companies see continued growth and earnings, investors may sell their FAANG stocks for small and mid cap tech stocks.

All stock market investors are watching Bitcoin and hoping for a big dip so they can buy in. But will Bitcoin fall again? Bitcoins price has risen $5000 in the last 5 days. See more on the Bitcoin price forecast.

Will There Be a Stock Market Crash?

Within a realistic outlook, a stock market crash seems unlikely, however you should still be up on all the factors as they change and combine to present threats to the markets.  Choosing stocks that will survive a crash is good and you should know more how to hedge a crash as smart management of your IRA, 401k or RRSP.

Forecasts: As for today and tomorrow, next 3 months, next 6 months, or next year, the outlook is positive but maybe not to the satisfaction of some investors. With such bubbly activity, the worry is a high speed wobble (volatility) and a crash of the stock markets, and perhaps even crashing the housing market. This turbulence will reach the housing market and encourage homeowners to sell their house fast.

Retail sales rose only .6% in June, so it looks like the great overheating is overdone. GDP for the first quarter was up 6.4%. The economy may be growing at above 10% rate this 2nd quarter. The cyclical change is still rolling along which is why investors are feeling confident. However, there’s a lot of phoniness in this market with Tesla, Bitcoin, Dogecoin, AMC and other stocks flying high.

Which are the best stocks to buy today/tomorrow or in the next 6 to 9 months? Some of the best picks recommended by Barchart reflect the best performing Wtd which you see in this chart below.  Which will be hottest stocks during the coming fall season?  There are other stocks not reflected in today’s hot Wtd Alphas but will perform well in 2022.

Best Stocks to Buy (Best Weighted Alpha)

Top Stocks to Buy, Weighted Alpha. Screenshot courtesy of Barchart.

Top Gaining Stocks Today

The most important stock chart for investors is who is rising fastest but keep in mind these are often rises based on recent news events or market signals.  It’s not uncommon to see some on the biggest losers within a few days.  The markets are volatile. Seeing the gainers/losers every day gives you insight into how other investors are responding/panicking and what events shape trading and prices.

Top gaining stocks. Screenshot courtesy of Barchart.

Top Losing Stocks Today

Top losers included Fate Therapeutics, BeiGen Ltd, Itronics, Bleand Labs, RLX Technology, Impala Platinum Holdings, Lynas Rare Earths Limited. A big warning about China stocks has been issued, and hopefully investors will avoid having their portfolio becoming a “hotel California.”

Top Sectors to Watch:

Consumer stapes, techology, and communications are performing the best. See more on NASDAQ.

Sectors to watch. Screenshot courtesy of CNBC.

Looking for good stocks to buy? See more on 5G stocks, FAANGs, top stocks for your 401k investment. See more about Google stock price, Apple Stock price, Facebook stock price, and Amazon stock price.

Best ETFs?

Investu says you can avoid picking individual inflation boosted stocks by investing in these funds:

  • IShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (NYSE: GSG)
  • Global X Internet of Things ETF (Nasdaq: SNSR)
  • Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE: VNQ)
  • Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE: DBB)
  • SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)

Tech has been hot. Investors should investigate the best tech stocks, including Google, Facebook, Amazon and Tesla. Tesla is up $21 in the last 2 day. Check out the oil stocks, 5G stocks and find those that are ready rise in value.

US GDP to Grow 7.9% in 2021

US Gross Domestic production grew 6.4% in the 1st quarter, no doubt meeting the approval of investors. Some are predicting GDP growth to reach near 10% in the April to June quarter. However, GDP forecast for 2022 it is 3.52%.

Is anything still holding back the stock markets right now? Three things: Biden Presidency, inflation, and the belief that interest rates have to go up sometime. Smart investors look 6 months to 5 years down the road.

A good sign for the economy and markets. Make sure you check out the best stocks to buy, penny stocks, best tech stocks, best 5G stocks, and watch the top gainers and top sectors going. Check out the forecast for next week.

Inflation a Threat on the Horizon?

Recent reports of up to 7% inflation in July are alarming, but some experts believe it is transitory.  However, with $5 Trillion in government spending forecast through stimulus, the already inflated money supply has to push prices up further. The housing market surged along with previous spending.

“With the economic outlook brightening, Covid-19 cases falling and more fiscal stimulus on the horizon, nervousness about inflation is percolating. That means pricing power is set to become an intriguing alpha generator due to the wide variance in how companies cope with it” according to Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Inc.’s chief U.S. equity strategist.

Everyone seems to believe inflation is going to be an issue for the economy and for listed companies. Here’s a few stocks CNBC/Insider Monkey believes will weather the inflation storm:

  1. Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM)
  2. AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T)
  3. Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (NYSE: MPW)
  4. Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG)
  5. Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI)
  6. Etsy, Inc. (NASDAQ: ETSY)
  7. Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM)
  8. Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL)
  9. Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE: CL)
  10. Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE)
  11. The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG)
  12. Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE: ASPN)
  13. Zoetis Inc. (NYSE: ZTS)

3 Month Market Forecasts

See more on the new outlook for September, October and November in anticipation of strong economic performance for the remainder 2021, heading into 2022. The markets should see growth accelerate during the summer and into the fall as the economy reopens.

Who else is bullish on the US Economy? Goldman Sachs for one. The company foresees GDP rising 6.4% for 2021, pushing the S&P up 14% to 3756, and growing to 4600 in 2022.

The Federal stimulus funds are on their way and there’s little doubt much of it will end up in the market in the next 3 months. Yes, $1.9 to $2.9 Trillion will make a lot of people happy. There’s even plans for $6 Trillion being spent over the next 8 years.

Positive Factors taking the Stock Markets Higher?

We’re wondering which factors can lift the stock market further upward or whether we’re on a downward trajectory?  There is a lot of cash available for spending and consumers are going to spend plenty with the fading of Covid 19.  The antivax movement is weak and will put a strain on enthusiasm and hospital budgets.  The hospitals may not be upset about the extra business, but it may hold back how they typically make their earnings (surgeries, treatments).

  • economy had a solid 4% growth in the 4th quarter 2020
  • inflation rises and low interest rates pushing treasury and bond prices down
  • markets climbed as investors seem optimistic
  • corporate earnings will sour in the 4th quarter
  • Fed says they’re not going to raise rates, and may not for years
  • $5 trillion sitting in money markets
  • Oil prices dropping fast which eases gasoline prices and transportation and manufacturing costs
  • S&P, and Dow keep reaching new records and NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are next
  • new government injecting $2.1 trillion in stimulus (possibly $5 trillion?)
  • Covid pandemic moving past its worst months?
  • jobs reports very strong
  • earnings reports so far are strong

5 Year Long Term Forecast is Optimistic

Just a little discussions on the 5 year stock market forecast (and 5 year housing market forecast ) look really good too because the American consumer is well employed and will see plenty of jobs as business is rebuilt from the ground up. Intent to buy homes is strong and construction rates will grow fast through the spring. If the economy stutters, the Biden admin will not be reluctant to give stimulus. Small business will need a transfusion, and it will get one.

The latest US jobs report is excellent. The 2022 to 2026 5 year forecast period is not priced into the market, but instead is focused on current earnings/sales and wishful thinking over the 5 year term.

Bank and Broker Forecasts

Goldman Sachs projects GDP will grow at a 5.3% pace in 2021 and forecasts a lower unemployment rate at 5.3%. They expect the S&P to rise 17% to 4,300 points, and driven by an expected 30% growth in corporate earnings.

Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and LPL Financial see the S&P rising 6% to reach 3,900. Oppenheimer boldly sees it hitting 4300.

Those US companies are becoming lean and powerful, and those who survive the pandemic will be unusually competitive in 2021. The question for some investors is whether airlines, cruise lines, hotels and other sectors are good long term buying opportunities, or whether buying more Tesla, Google, Facebook and Amazon stock is the safer route. Some believe they’re a good buy during a coming market correction. Buy the correction they say.

Will Self Directed Investors be the Story in the Next 3 to 6 Months?

The growth of self-directed trading is impressive as day trading investors feel they can find the best stocks on their own. With the level of insight and opinion and stats available online, these self-directed investors are still guided by the same investment pros. It could be Wall Street feels threatened by a change in the investment landscape, with new investment tools, software and advisors becoming more in vogue.

There are plenty of ups and downs recently though to keep them cautious. And the odds of a stock market crash are low right now. If self-directed stock trading is working for you, please let me know in the comments at bottom.

What About the Housing Market Forecast?

The housing market does impact the outlook for stock investment. Certainly, the huge wealth of funds and cash in bank accounts could find its way into home purchases if the economy was solid.  So home prices could climb much further.  If stock prices went sour, it would immediately affect valuations of new homes and resale properties. Many homeowners would look to sell their house fast and that would send prices downward quickly.

The expectation is that a downturn in stocks reflects bad news overall for the US economy including the new home construction numbers which are down of late.  Given all home prices are at all time highs, the risk to the downside is pronounced. It’s a sketchy situation for US home owners and mortgage holders when home prices are so high, and disconnected to the economy.  If it happens, a stock market crash and housing market crash would be simultaneous and given the effect of inflationary stimulus in the trillions, the results are worth preparing for.

Nevertheless, the Dow Jones forecast, S&P forecast, NASDAQ forecast and Russell 2000 long term outlook are once again positive. The reason the majors have been doing so well, is due to the struggles of small business.

 

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Yes, with US wages growing, unemployment low, and interest rates remaining low, you have strong evidence that Google stock price, Facebook stock price, Apple Stock Price, and Amazon stock price growth will continue in 2021. Tesla stock price is on fire.

More interesting insight: 6 Month Forecast | Stock Market Today | 5 Year Stock Market Forecast  | Housing Market | Stock Market Next Week | Stock Market Crash | Is the Stock Market Going to Crash?Hedging a Stock Market Crash | Best Stocks to Buy | Stock Prices | 3 to 6 month Outlook | Stock Market Next Week | Stock Market Crash Signals  | Stock Investing Sites | Self-Directed Stock InvestingHousing Market Predictions 2022 | Oil Price Forecast | Russell 2000 Forecast | Best 5G StocksStock Market Forecast 2022Google Stock Price | Apple Stock Price | Tesla Stock Price | Amazon Stock Price | US Economic Forecast 2022 | US Job Outlook 2021 | Gord Collins

2 Comments

  1. Interesting article, not sure what the best investment tool is, to plan investment in markets or extraction from markets. As I got caught badly with the dip in March.
    Given nobody can really predict the future .

    I wonder how accurate S&P500 forecasts are as a starting point for planning, is there any history to show the accuracy of such forecasts ?

    1. Thanks Bruce. Good question. There’s not much available on forecaster’s S&P historic prediction success. If they’re not boasting about it, they may not have even beaten the market. There’s no telling about the political factors but right now, the relationship with China is heading down. That will benefit the S&P and Dow Jones, and the NASDAQ seems to be already ahead of the curve. And if President Trump doesn’t get elected, the markets will likely collapse. Investors will evacuate the US markets.

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