Housing Market and Stock Market Forecasts

Dow Jones Forecast

 

Dow Forecast DJIA

Now in mid April of 2021, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached its all time high at 34,200.67 ( S&P 500 too hit its new record last week) As the pandemic recedes, the global economy returns, and retail spending grows, the demand for industry will create jobs and GDP and feed the best Dow Jones stocks.

Dow Jones stocks are generally a low risk, stable high value assets. Some experts believe investors are starting to abandon the small caps in favor of the mega caps on the Dow.  Investing Cap reports that the Dow has moved above the 25-day and 50-day moving average while the momentum indicator has continued rising. Review the top gainer Dow Stocks listed below.

 

You’d think US industrial stocks would have the most favorable outlook as the pandemic recession begins to close. Yet, investors are unbelieving that interest rates will stay low as the Fed promises. If they believed J Powell, then it seems they don’t trust J Yellen.

The volatility, uncertain trade relations, China dependence, trade imbalance, huge debt load, rising taxes, rising interest rates, and a new US administration that’s pro-regulation and anti-fossil fuels could put US companies at a big disadvantage.

 

Dow Jones IA Forecast to 2022

So why then, has the DJIA soared during a shutdown pandemic economy? The S&P and NASDAQ have had rising but bumpy ride lately, and the Russell Index is in a class by itself now. See more on the Russell 2000 forecast.

 

DJIA Forecast. Screenshot courtesy of Trading Economics.

Most experts suggest the Dow Jones is at its peak right now.  Given the tech sector is hot right now, investors might be more interest in tech stocks.  That will particularly so,  for small tech companies on the S&P and Russell which could benefit from anti-trust measures if they’re enacted on the FAANGS.  See the price outlook for Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook.

Forecast for Next Month and Next 6 Months

The DOW Jones forecast for March/April and for the next 6 months has to be rosy as is the stock market outlook overall.  Commodity prices are rising, the economy is expected to get rolling, and international trade should begin to rev up too.

Dow Jones April. Screenshot courtesy of Google Finance.

 

Screenshot courtesy of Yahoo Finance.

Dow Top Gainers on the Dow (April 17)


Top gainers on the Dow today included Chevron, Honeywell, American Express, Caterpillar, 3M, all good signs for the 6 month outlook.  All are companies with international reach.

Barchart offers excellent stock price charts and reviews. Here is their report on the Dow’s top gaining stocks as of April 17.  The major banks and financial companies reported excellent earnings this past week. Dow stocks should jump on Monday and through next week.

Dow Jones top gainers. Screenshot courtesy of Barchart.

Dow stocks are highly dependent on China trade and yet China US relations are not secure by any means given China’s military actions.

This month it is technology stocks that are driving the markets, and APPL is one of those stocks. It could be the fear of a second wave isn’t as intense although new cases are rising across the US.

 

Dow Jones Outlook for Next 6 Months?

As I said last summer, given the size and complexity of manufacturing and materials logistics, the companies on the DOW 30 will need some time to ramp up after the Covid 19 Shutdown. That pushes the horizon off to about 6 months before profitability returns so we’re into late summer.  This Xmas holiday season should be a really good one bringing families together after a long period of isolation.

And as forecasted as well, with global economies recovering, interest rates low, and a booming latent demand for housing, travel, consumer goods, US industrial production should ramp up fast with inflation greasing the wheels. Shortages of all goods will happen worse than it is now over the next 3 to 6 months and that demand will spawn new production.

Forecast.org believes the Dow Jones will fall to about the 30500 level by October 2021.

Screenshot courtesy of forecast.org

 

What Factors Drive the DJIA Price?

As a weighted index of only 30 stocks, some might question whether the DJIA is a relevant index.

Dow Jones 30 Stocks include Apple, Pfizer, Walmart, Johnson & Johnson, Walt Disney, Nike among other huge corporations. Calling them industrials is a little misleading. Transportation and utilities stocks are not included in the DJIA and instead are in the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA).

 

Whereas the Dow Jones average is a measure of the biggest companies, the S&P 500 index is more about the stock prices of big, but healthy companies — those with high market cap above $8.2 billion and a public float of 50%, and which have had positive earnings for the last 4 quarters. The S&P has 500 stocks which makes it a more reliable reflection of the stock market.

The Russell Index in contrast is a measure of 2000 small cap stocks. It provides a look at performance of small business in America.

 

Predictions for Dow 30?

The 30 DJIA stocks by themselves offer a very skewed perspective of US stock markets and the economy as a whole.  See the 2021 stock market forecast for more perspective. In fact, many of these companies operate globally, and are therefore outside the real US economy, deeply affected by International trade deals.

As the global trade channels slowly awaken, it’s predictable that the large cap Dow 30 stocks are going to be investor favorites. Keep your eye on the best performing DOW stocks above. Perhaps slower growth than other hot tech stocks, consumer discretionaries, and oil stocks, but likely far safer. The possibility of a stock market crash is slim for the next few years, but it is something to encourage you to hedge against.

Here are the Current 30 DJIA Stocks:

  1. 3M (NYSE:MMM)
  2. American Express (NYSE:AXP)
  3. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)
  4. Boeing (NYSE:BA)
  5. Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT)
  6. Chevron (NYSE:CVX)
  7. Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO)
  8. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO)
  9. The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS)
  10. Dow DuPont (NYSE:DWDP)
  11. ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM)
  12. General Electric (NYSE:GE)
  13. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS)
  14. The Home Depot (NYSE:HD)
  15. IBM (NYSE:IBM)
  16. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)
  17. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)
  18. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM)
  19. McDonalds (NYSE:MCD)
  20. Merck (NYSE:MRK)
  21. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)
  22. Nike (NYSE:NKE)
  23. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)
  24. Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG)
  25. Travelers Companies (NYSE:TRV)
  26. United Technologies (NYSE:UTX)
  27. UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH)
  28. Verizon (NYSE:VZ)
  29. Visa (NYSE:V)
  30. Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT)

 

Forecast.com Dow Jones Forecast to 2022

Longforecast.com’s adjusted outlook to 2022 sees the Dow Reaching 34000 over the next 2 years.

Screenshot courtesy of Longforecast.com

Dow Jones volatility is mimics the same path the prices and forecasts for the S&P or the NASDAQ. DJIA are all about political power and the primacy of the monopolies. Within Free Trade, the monopolies could do as they pleased and name their price. But the end of Free Trade and the enforcement of China tariffs has ended it.

The threat of data privacy legislation and punishment from Europe, Asia, and North American governments casts a shadow over Dow companies. Anti-monopoly action by the DOJ too threatens these big companies revenue picture.

Best Dow Jones Stock Picks This Year

So far this year, the 5 best performing Dow stocks were Microsoft (up 35%), Cisco (up 32%), Visa (up 31%), American Express (up 31%), and Disney (up 29%) according to Yahoo Finance.

Investors Place has these as the Best Dow Jones Stock to buy:

  1. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)
  2. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)
  3. Nike (NYSE:NKE)
  4. Walmart (NYSE:WMT)
  5. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)
  6. Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG)
  7. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS)

Politics Determines DJIA Predictions

With respect to US industrials on the Dow, the high US dollar, widening trade deficit and ballooning debt means the downward projection curve in the chart above makes sense. Moving production and fulfillment channels is not an easy thing to do. It’s unlikely Biden will have any greater luck trying to bring jobs back to the US.  A sliding US dollar is the only hope, and rising interest rates would wipe out any hope of currency help.

 

Is it wise to invest in Dow Jones stocks? Likely not. It’s wiser to look at top performing US stocks on the S&P, or small caps on the Russell Index. The NASDAQ index as well holds stocks with better upside, given technology won’t fail even during a recession. Those companies using AI (artificial intelligence) should be of particular interest to you.

See more on the US stock more forecast as well as 3 or 6 month forecasts, and forecasts for tomorrow and next week, along with a look at 5G stocks to buy.  Also take a good look at oil stocks, and best recovery stocks, along with the best penny stocks to buy.  High performing investments will be much harder to come by this year and you’ll be wise to hire a talented, high performing investment advisor to pick some winners.

Stock Market Predictions for TomorrowStock Forecast | 6 Month Forecast | 3 Month ForecastS&P 500 Forecast  | Will the Stock Market Crash? | Bitcoin Price Forecast | Stock Market Crash Signals | Housing Market Crash | Stock Market Crash Predictions | Stock Market Crash Strategy | Will the Dow Jones Crash? | Best Stocks to Buy | Stock Prediction Software | Stock Investing | Stock Investing SitesNASDAQ Predictions | Gold Price | Stock Market Next Week | Tesla Stock Price | April May June Forecast | Google Stock Price | Facebook Price |

 

Please do Share this Post on Facebook, and bookmark for updates later!

 

Exit mobile version