Toronto Housing Market Forecast

Toronto Housing Market

While March home sales in the Toronto region were strong at almost 11,000 sold, it was a marked 30% drop from last March of 2021. That month was very strong yet there was more inventory available then.

Zolo reported that sales up to April 15 have dropped while listings are rising sharply.  Could rising rates and tough mortgage qualification create a Toronto market correction? Everyone’s asking when prices are going to drop, at first a ludicrous question, but this month’s activity is unnerving.  Is now the best time to sell your GTA home?  If mortgage rates double by the end of the year, how many homeowners will be able to refinance?  Or is it better to sell their overprice home?

TREBB’s MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark rose by 34.8% year-over-year.  The average selling price for all home types rose 18.5% cent year-over-year.

As prices continue a hot upward pace, it may be time to pause for buyers and sellers.  If there’s one I’ve learned, you can get out in front and ride waves, or you can get pummeled in the frothy aftermath.  For sellers, the ideal time might be arriving to sell.  Don’t sell your house fast, instead, do strong marketing for maximum bids and the highest price. Hire a local Realtor and let them create a pool of strong bids, probably all cash too.

Of course, making plans for the next few years is a challenge for any home seller. However, with the windfall profits, sellers can easily avail themselves of a relocation specialist or planner to find a new home, perhaps in another country. It’s exciting for you so you can move onto things few other people can dream of.

Homeowners Intent to Sell

In the US, surveys show 60% of homeowners intend to sell in the next 6 months. That should tell you we may be hitting the housing market peak.  Will Toronto home prices fall in 2023? How fast could prices drop? And what is the risk of a housing market crash in Toronto? See the Calgary housing market and Vancouver housing market reports for comparison.

The 905 area continues to enjoy strong demand against limited supplies of any type of housing stock. Sales however continue to plunge due both 905 and 416 due to high house and condo prices, and the unwillingness or inability of sellers to put their homes up for sale.

Screenshot courtesy of TRREB. Toronto home prices by home type in March 2022.

Demand is so intense now in the GTA, that homes only stay on the market for 11 days on average, down from last March when they sat for 13 days, an a 15% decline.  TRREB’s home price chart shows prices climbing at a near vertical rate for the last 12 months and up 31% year over year for detached houses.

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Although the recovery is poised to take off this spring, there are big worries about rising interesting rates, an ailing and debt loaded small business sector teetering on collapse, rising inflation and gasoline prices, along with fears of stagflation leading to recession.  That fear may deter many buyers from buying at home at what is the peak of the market. Few are talking about a housing market crash, but some are wondering about 2023.

Screenshot courtesy of TRREB. Total new home sales and selling price in Toronto GTA.
Screenshot courtesy of TRREB. Total new home listings in the GTA.

According to TRREB data, home prices have doubled in the past 4.7 years in Brampton. An astonishing payday for many buyers in Brampton and area.  Buyers in Milton, always in high demand have seen their home value rise 80%. Brock, Oshawa, and Uxbridge have almost doubled. And the most astonishing price rises have been in Innisfil, for an incredible 124% rise during that period.

GTA City by city home prices (data courtesy of TRREB)

Toronto Region Cities March 2022 August 2021 July 2021 August 2020 August 2017 Price Change last 8 Months Price Change Last 4.7 years
Burlington $1,638,040 $1,403,929 $1,365,547 $1,184,945 $944,564 16.7% 73%
Halton Hills $1,564,270 $1,211,651 $1,178,832 $1,046,213 $984,812 29.1% 59%
Milton $1,712,357 $1,308,519 $1,285,132 $1,044,360 $866,650 30.9% 98%
Oakville $2,362,508 $1,958,639 $1,920,531 $1,582,531 $1,314,363 20.6% 80%
Brampton $1,573,497 $1,275,119 $1,214,841 $989,039 $766,831 23.4% 105%
Caledon $1,903,025 $1,673,455 $1,660,778 $1,185,251 $1,028,591 13.7% 85%
Mississauga $1,756,910 $1,483,197 $1,551,658 $1,307,832 $1,066,015 18.5% 65%
Toronto West $1,683,450 $1,457,430 $1,382,361 $1,270,053 $919,916 15.5% 83%
Toronto Central $2,725,902 $2,419,594 $2,542,478 $2,385,278 $2,113,130 12.7% 29%
Toronto East $1,529,864 $1,278,893 $1,242,729 $1,118,506 $887,620 19.6% 72%
Aurora $1,981,617 $1,458,249 $1,535,884 $1,259,424 $1,144,094 35.9% 73%
E Gwillimbury $1,621,299 $1,341,007 $1,425,091 $1,023,943 $966,047 20.9% 68%
Georgina $1,130,155 $965,273 $943,194 $731,183 $604,838 17.1% 87%
King $2,737,753 $2,280,737 $2,127,595 $1,774,480 $1,768,333 20.0% 55%
Markham $1,997,702 $1,700,951 $1,710,577 $1,465,417 $1,319,860 17.4% 51%
Newmarket $1,552,840 $1,271,443 $1,223,591 $1,050,862 $901,055 22.1% 72%
Richmond Hill $2,051,273 $1,821,529 $1,834,311 $1,563,718 $1,466,884 12.6% 40%
Vaughan $2,044,573 $1,813,728 $1,633,544 $1,389,040 $1,348,649 12.7% 52%
Whitchurch Stouffville $1,978,605 $1,579,708 $1,669,468 $1,219,385 $1,024,941 25.3% 93%
Ajax $1,373,496 $1,100,626 $1,052,753 $862,454 $708,185 24.8% 94%
Brock $1,057,415 $987,354 $764,293 $660,183 $508,615 7.1% 108%
Oshawa $1,099,404 $862,358 $882,096 $672,522 $550,677 27.5% 100%
Pickering $1,511,459 $1,263,994 $1,217,165 $973,291 $812,643 19.6% 86%
Scugog $1,298,531 $1,047,595 $988,223 $919,542 $719,375 24.0% 81%
Uxbridge $1,560,469 $1,403,310 $1,435,744 $1,089,997 $792,233 11.2% 97%
Whitby $1,399,956 $1,101,460 $1,089,938 $886,322 $733,811 27.1% 91%
Orangeville $1,194,537 $958,823 $853,674 $705,254 $612,974 24.6% 95%
Bradford West Gwill $1,458,031 $1,166,483 $1,155,989 $874,168 25.0%
Innisfil $1,230,745 $931,421 $890,940 $766,834 $549,492 32.1% 124%
Toronto Home Price History. Screenshot courtesy of TRREB.

Zolo stats show listings down strongly up to April 13th, while sales to list price still going strong.

Screenshot courtesy of Zolo.ca.

Housing Affordability Can be Eased if Homeowners Decide to Cash in on the Bonanza

It’s a frightening context for real estate and housing given rental listings are down almost 50% from last year. This is a crisis of significant proportions given immigrants are pouring in over our borders.  Homeless deaths rocketed over 200 last year.  If interest rates rise too rapidly, home loan borrowers will find mortgage payments too high and more homeless will be hitting the streets.

The lack of outcry about housing in the GTA area is alarming. The pandemic may have make people even more apathetic, and this means the necessary political will is lacking.  Politicians may not want to see real estate values fall, and they have a belief in a high density/high cost,  anti-sprawl agenda means these problems won’t be solved.

TREBB’s TRREB President Kevin Crigger reiterated what his predecessors said many times “Evidence-based decision-making should inform government policies, and we encourage representatives at all levels of government to think big and act decisively to improve needed housing supply in a significant way.

So when homeowners do sell their homes and condos, it is the best short term solution to the housing crisis in Canada.

Toronto Housing Market Forecasts 2022

Royal Lepage predicts price growth will reach 11% in Toronto this year, with condo prices even hotter at 12% growth. Phil Soper reiterated the fact that Toronto and Canadian home shortage situation cannot be solved overnight. The fact is, the shortage will steepen, and with rising incomes and rates remaining low, that demand will be brisk in 2022.

What’s chronically understated in the outlook is the US, Canadian and Global economic recovery. 2021 saw rising employment, strong housing demand and mobility along with rising wages.

Royal Lepage’s 2022 Predictions

Home Prices Forecasts 2022 for Toronto Montreal Vancouver. Screenshot courtesy of Royal Lepage Report and Forecast.

Remax 2022 Toronto Housing Forecast

Remax forecast home prices in Toronto will rise 10% in 2022 to a new level of $1,160,491.

Screenshot courtesy of Re/max.

The GTA Toronto Market

TRREB reports the MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark rose an astonishing 24.2% over the last 12 months. Only a housing market crash could cool that trend.  In November, The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark rose 28.3% YoY.  The average home price rose 21.7% vs last November to $1,163,323.

GTA REALTORS® reported home sales increased 3.3% year over year (9,017 transactions) setting the new record. New listings however fell 13.2% YoY.

Screenshot courtesy of TRREB. City of Toronto home prices by districted.

GTA Housing Sales March 2022

Screenshot courtesy of TRREB. Detached home sales and prices march 2022

The average price for all home types combined was $1,697,396 on only 4480 home sales in the GTA.

See the detailed price chart for Toronto districts below.

Right now is a good time time to sell your home. And you can sell your home fast with perhaps no commission, or sell it for more using a Realtor with a strong digital marketing strategy. Big demand and bidding wars means no price is too outlandish. Buyers are desperate.

The Toronto condo segment has recovered well and is expected to continue given the shortage of units, the demand from new immigrants, returning workers to the high density housing in GTA urban areas (Toronto).

GTA Prices

King, Markham, Brampton, Toronto Central, King, Whitchurch/Stouffville saw big gains in house prices while Bradford, Brock, Innisfil, Milton, Halton Hills, and Burlington suffered sizable losses in price.  It seems buyers cannot find the houses they’re hoping for far from the city, or they are having issues about the commute to Toronto to work.  See more on the Toronto condo market report. As we progress to summer, condos will become the big Toronto housing market story. But for now, houses are the object of everyone’s affections.

Take a look at the home price rises of the last 4 years. This is the shocking stat that most buyers and politicians have lost site of. This really is an election issue, as we head to even higher prices and less housing supply in the GTA. GTA housing stats courtesy of TRREB.

GTA Condo Prices February

Is a housing market crash even thinkable, given the recovery is so near?  Is a quick downturn more likely in 2022 as government stimulus in the US dries up?

Work from home won’t end as employers will cringe at continuing to pay Toronto commercial office rents and are buoyed by the lower cost of remote working.  Yet the exodus from the inner city in Toronto will slow as practical issues of high home costs, lack of home supply, and distance to the office take over.

The lack of housing supply is making finding a home in the GTA very difficult. It is real estate in Vaughan, Bradford, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Milton, Stouffville, Pickering and Whitby that everyone is after.

Interestingly though, CMHC with its Toronto real estate market crash style scenario. CHMC said Toronto (and Vancouver homes) are highly overvalued and a drop of prices in the neighbourhood of 20% is coming.  With all due respect to CMHC, they should avoid looking at fundamentals, because human market demand is an emotional thing.

With mortgage rates so low, there’s a desperation among young buyers to buy and lock in at low rates.

With mortgage rates at historic lows and loan refinancing still frequent, the market is loosening up. However, with Covid still actives, US trade tensions heightening, and the US election in two months, we’re hearing more talk about a housing market crash. And a Toronto housing market crash is possible if the US economy should collapse.

As you can see in the monthly Toronto GTA region prices and sales details, upward momentum is strong.  The growth in prices in each regions is astonishing and there is little to suggest it will slow into the fall season.

See more on the Vancouver real estate market, Calgary real estate market, Okanagan real estate market and the York region real estate market.

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Compare Toronto’s property market outlook to the US housing market forecast.  You can view the prices for each city and MLS district below. Also, keep an eye on Toronto condo prices as the pandemic passes.

Homebuyers are still willing to look beyond the green spaces belt, but they’ll look at Aurora, Bradford, Stouffville, and Newmarket first before heading north.

Toronto Housing Market | Toronto Housing Market Crash | Toronto Condo Market | Calgary Housing Market | Vancouver Housing Market | Mississauga Housing Market | Kelowna Vernon Housing Market | Housing Market Forecast | Housing Market Crash