Housing Market and Stock Market Forecasts

New Home Construction

New Home Construction and Sales

New home starts and completions are important stats when combine with resale housing market stats.  It shows us where supply and prices are headed.  Prices are rising and supply has dwindled.

In August, new home starts and completions fell from July’s very strong numbers but have added to big uptick recently as you can see in the graphics below.  Median new home prices sold dropped slightly from $327,800 in July to $312,800 in August. However sales rose above July’s totals.

 

The market demand is very strong, and since supply is weakening, we can expect upward price pressure through the fall, as buyers still interested in the housing market.

New Home Sales Rocket

Sales of new single-family houses in August 2020 rose 4.8% above July’s 956,00 sales to a new total of 1,011,000 homes.   August’s median home sold price to to $312,800.  Inventory of new houses for sale at the end of August was 282,000 which equates to of 3.3 months supply at the current sales rate.

 

New Home Sales August 2020. Screenshot courtesy of census.gov.

New Home Construction Completions

Completions are the number most want to hear as it represents homes for sale eager buyers can move into.

 

Privately-owned housing completions in August fell 7.5% from July estimate of 1,333,000.  And completions were 2.4% fewer than August 2019 total of 1,263,000 units. Single-family housing completions in August of 912,000 were 4.4% lower than July’s 954,000 house completions . The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 312,000.

New Home Construction Starts Falter

Privately-owned housing starts in August fell 5.1% to 1,416,000 from July’s 1,492,000 units.  However, the numbers were still 2.8 percent higher than the August 2019’s 1,377,000 units started . Single-family housing starts in August rose 41.% to 1,021,000 units, above the July’s total of 981,000 units.  For building with five units or more units,  375,000 were completed.

New home Construction in August. Screenshot courtesy of Census.gov

 

Builder Optimism is High

The US Commerce Department says builder optimism is high and with low interest rates and big preference for buyers, there’s little to stop significant sales in August and September.  The only drawbacks are regulation and high lumber prices. With buyers finding houses for sale scarce, the new home market is vital to the health of the real estate market.

Builder Optimism. Chart courtesy of NAHB.

New Home Construction Rates Rise Briskly

Yesterday’s Commerce Department home construction report showed new home building is up 22.6% in July.  And new new home starts accelerated to a seasonally adjusted 1.5 million in July, the highest rate since February 2020. Amazingly, this rate is 39% higher than July of 2019.

Apartments and condominium construction rose 56.7% and single-family home construction chipped in a further 8.2%. In previous months, multifamily units were in a construction and sales drought.  Applications for building permits jumped almost 19% last month to 1.5 million.

The CD reported that construction grew in all regions of the US in July: 35.3% in the Northeast, 33.2% in the South, and 5.8% in both the Midwest and the West.

Previously, Taylor Morrison Homes the No. 5 U.S. home builder, whose sales declined 30% in April versus a year earlier, reported a 17% increase in May. “We’ve seen that momentum continue,” CEO Sheryl Palmer says. “How we can go from peak to trough back to peak again, all in about 10, 12 weeks, is unlike anything I’ve seen.” — from Barrons news report.

 

The reason for the growth in new home sales may be due to a big change in home buyer’s values. With the threat of Covid 19 and a preference for the burbs or rural areas, new work at home routines, and low mortgage rates, some buyers see new homes as the right choice going forward into 2021.

 

Housing Starts History US. Screenshot courtesy of NAHB.

I’ve forecasted that home prices will rise this summer. It may even be a bidding war market.

 

New Home Inventory Falling

In June, new home inventory fell to a 5.6 months supply, with 318,000 new single-family homes for sale. Inventory is down 16.4% from May 2019. Only 76,000 units are completed, ready to occupy. The median new home sales price was $317,900 while the median price twelve months ago was $312,700.

Across the US, the year-to-date basis new home sales were up in all US regions: 6.8% in the Northeast, and 1.4% in the West, 0.3% in the South, and 9.5% in the Midwest.

 

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New Residential Home Sales

NAHB’s Robert Dietz reported home builders using pricing incentives in April, but have since reduced those incentives as sales have picked up.

New Single Family Home Inventory 2020. Screen capture courtesy of NAHB

New Housing Construction Starts

Census.gov reported privately-owned housing starts in May rose 4.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 974,000. This was 4.3% above the revised April estimate of 934,000, and is still below last May’s rate of 1,268,000 units.  This drop of 650,000 homes started per month has created a huge shortage of new homes.  With demand picking up, home prices should rise.

US housing starts. Screenshot courtesy of Tradingeconomics.

 

 

Home Builder Confidence Rising

And home builders are forecasting better times for buyer demand and sales across the US. Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes jumped 6 points to 78 in July, according to the NAHB /Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

NAHB Wells Fargo Home Builders Sentiment. Screenshot courtesy of Tradingeconomics.

 

Don’t forget to check the housing market in 2021, and more on major metro markets in including Los Angeles, Denver, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Boston and New York. See the state forecasts for Florida and California.

See the latest mortgage rate forecast, economic forecast, and why home prices will rise.

 

Housing Market 2021 | September October Home Price ForecastHousing Market Forecast Part 2 | Cities with Lowest House PricesCorona Virus and the Real Estate Market | Will Home Prices Fall? |  Stock Market Forecast 2021Housing Market Crash? | Mortgage Rates 2020 | Mortgage Refinance Rates | Will Home Prices Fall in Florida? | Dallas Real Estate | Denver Real Estate | New Home Construction 2020 | Atlanta Real Estate |  Should I Buy a New Home?  | When Will House Prices Drop? | Sitemap | RSS Syndication

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