Housing Market Forecast 2021 Part 2
Home Price Bolstered by Strengthening Economy
The improving, post pandemic economy will be flush with renewed optimism about the housing market, which currently is on a tear.
We know the economy is going well, and with trade deals firmed up, unemployment at record lows (3.5%) and wages rising (3.7% in December). And we know Millennials (50% of total home sales and mortgages) are desperate to start their families (and for years to come) and they are starting to buy.
If the experts believe US spending cutbacks, low builder output, low housing listings, skittish lenders, and the election will keep sales low, then I guess we have to mention it.
“Housing appears poised to take a leading role in real GDP growth over the forecast horizon for the first time in years, further bolstering our modest-but-solid growth forecasts through 2021,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist.
Home Prices Across the Country
See more insight on the major California housing market and Florida housing market forecasts. Looking for specific city housing markets? See Bay Area housing market, Los Angeles housing market, San Diego housing market, Sacramento housing, Seattle housing, Atlanta housing market, Philadelphia housing market, Boston Housing market, New York housing market, Chicago housing market, Dallas, and Miami housing market reports.
Kiplinger in its report suggests shortages will grow as builders can’t get financing from banks. They point out that housing inventories are down 10% to 30% in many cities. They believe prices will rise 6% for the next few years.
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New Construction Permits
According to census.gov, nationwide building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,551,000. This is down 9.2% below Decembers numbers. Single‐family housing starts to 987,000 which is significantly down from Decembers but slightly above Novembers totals.
Housing starts fell 3.6% from December but this number is still 21% higher than last January. Multifamily starts with 5 or more units rose to 547,000. Single family housing starts fell 3.5% from December.
Housing completions fell 3.3% from December’s totals but were up 1.1% on seasonal average.
All good news, however much of the production is not in the target range of most buyers.
| Construction Starts – Major Cities | Single Family Homes | |||
| YTD | YTD | YTD | YEAR | |
| Time Period | Nov-19 | Nov-18 | % CHG | 2018 |
| USA | 791.452 | 799.679 | -1% | 855.332 |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GA | 24,075 | 24,602 | -2% | 26,500 |
| Boston-Cambridge-Quincy MA-NH | 4,001 | 4,501 | -11% | 4900 |
| Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord NC-SC | 13,811 | 14,168 | -3% | 16,400 |
| Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL-IN-WI | 7,082 | 8,067 | -12% | 8,500 |
| Cincinnati-Middletown OH-KY-IN | 4,126 | 4,046 | 2% | 4,280 |
| Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor OH | 2,371 | 2,499 | -5% | 2,700 |
| Columbus OH | 3,746 | 4,099 | -9% | 4,450 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX | 32,383 | 34,241 | -5% | 36,800 |
| Denver-Aurora CO | 10,025 | 11,189 | -10% | 11,800 |
| Detroit-Warren-Livonia MI | 4,986 | 5,906 | -16% | 6,130 |
| Honolulu HI | 0,890 | 0,982 | -9% | 98 |
| Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land TX | 36,819 | 37,663 | -2% | 4050 |
| Indianapolis IN | 6,339 | 6,708 | -6% | 7300 |
| Las Vegas-Paradise NV | 8,773 | 9,123 | -4% | 9700 |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana CA | 8,303 | 9,314 | -11% | 10,042 |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach FL | 6,594 | 6,564 | 0% | 7,000 |
| Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis WI | 1,428 | 1,638 | -13% | 1,730 |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI | 8,654 | 8,344 | 4% | 8,900 |
| New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner LA | 2,944 | 2,771 | 6% | 3,050 |
| New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island NY-NJ-PA | 10,881 | 9,346 | 16% | 11,000 |
| Orlando FL | 13,777 | 15,134 | -9% | 16,000 |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ | 22,900 | 21,164 | 8% | 23,050 |
| Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton OR-WA | 7,061 | 6,392 | 10% | 6,870 |
| Sacramento–Arden-Arcade–Roseville CA | 6,668 | 6,054 | 10% | 6,390 |
| San Antonio TX | 8,411 | 7,576 | 11% | 8,000 |
| San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos CA | 2,824 | 3,352 | -16% | 3,490 |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont CA | 3,510 | 3,728 | -6% | 4,050 |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA | 2,358 | 2,267 | 4% | 2,466 |
| Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA | 7,973 | 8,430 | -5% | 9,134 |
| St. Louis MO-IL | 4,823 | 4,944 | -2% | 5,248 |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL | 13,626 | 13,344 | 2% | 14,200 |
New Construction Permits -Data courtesy of NAHB
They’re starting to believe in the strength and persistence of the US economy, yet see that construction will never keep up to demand.
NAR’s Lawrence Yun, reiterated how low interest rates, continuing job expansion, higher weekly earnings and low mortgage rates are encouraging home sales. New housing construction starts rose in October too, the highest levels since 2007.
There are still fears of a housing market crash, spawned by fears of a stock market crash and slowing global economy. Yet, the US economy continues on very well and the global economy is recovering. As I’ve been forecasting for a long time now, economic and political factors point to a potential bull market in the US starting in 2020, together with low interest rates, although not good conditions for China (Trade deal looks on thin ice, and will likely not hold).
With tax breaks ending for high end homes, sales of luxury homes should moderate further. However, sales of high end homes is up in Florida and California. NAR says the hottest cities nationwide were Columbus, Ohio; Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.; Midland, Texas; and Sacramento and Stockton-Lodi, California.
See more on the California housing market, Florida real estate market, Bay Area, Los Angeles housing market , San Diego housing market.
Total housing inventory at the end of October was 1.77 million units. This is a drop of 2.7% from September and down 4.3% from last October (1.85 million units).
Housing Starts Outlook Brightens
According to census.gov, builder confidence has resumed. New construction stats were the best since 2007, however, in January new permits slowed. With only 3.1 months of supply, it is the lack of residential listings that’s taking center stage. New construction must stay high to satiate buyer demand.
Multifamily construction grew strongly, above 8%. If trade deal worries ease and business confidence grows, the spring market could be a hot one.
Forecast for New Residential Home Construction Next 5 Years
Statista suggests home building will decrease in 2020, and perhaps thereafter with reduced supply, housing prices will rise once again fueling builder intent.
With 1.68 million homes available, buyers are waiting for the best time to buy. A NAR survey recently suggested that right now may be the best time to buy.
Why would buying this winter be a wise choice?
- low interest and mortgage rates
- new housing construction dropping
- lots of new construction being released
- recent economic data is positive
- large number of homes now on the market
The chart below from Advisor Perspectives shows how lasting the last recession was, and that confidence and buying intent still is on the mend. With the recent economic setback overcome, consumer confidence should increase.
Next 5 Years Housing Factors Positive
The Job market forecast is excellent with unemployment falling to a persistent 3.6%. And mortgage rates are forecast to fall. S&P CoreLogic predicts home prices will rise 5% in the next 9 months. The hottest cities now are Midland, Texas; Chico, California; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Spokane Washington; and San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, California. Recession fears are causing some to think now is the time to sell.
The Atlanta, Tampa Sarasota, San Francisco, San Diego, New York, Boston, Seattle, Houston, Miami and Chicago housing markets are ready to heat up in 2020.
Will the big markets in Florida and California bloom or will the smaller cities continue to draw workers, construction and home purchases? At this point, both look possible. More is better when it comes to housing, so a transition of workers and immigrants to the heartland could have more beneficial effects than many might expect.
This new update and projections for the 2020 to 2024 5 year forecast period ahead for the US housing market offers key facts, data, perspective, predictions, price factors, expert opinion and forecasted trends from top sources such as NAR, Trulia, Freddie Mac, Zillow, Case Shiller, Trading Economics, and more.
Although worries of a housing crash persist, a housing hungry Millennial middle class, and powerful economic performance will any outweigh housing crash indicators. As you’ll see in the charts, videos and opinions below this market is an interesting phase.
This United States Housing Report is the most widely read and thorough update/prediction for 2019/2020, and other housing and economic data to 2026. Please bookmark for coming fresh updates!
Mortgage Rate Forecast 2020
It’s true, mortgage rates are forecast to fall and there’s some good deals for home loans and refinance loans. According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 3.47% in February 2020. This is down from a 3.62% rate in January. The average commitment rate in 2019 was 3.94%.
Check out more on the mortgage rate forecast for US lending institutions and firms including Lendingtree, USBank, Bank of America, Quickenloans, Zillow Home Loans, HSBC, WellsFargo, Loandepot, Chase Bank, and more.
Why Will Rates Fall, and When Will They Rise Again?
Should you buy or refinance now? The forecast is for lower mortgage rate quotes. We may get back to rates as low ast 3.6%. Lower income buyers would be struggling to buy at current prices and as affordable homes hit the market, they can finally buy.
Which are the most expensive cities to buy a home? San Jose, San Francisco, and San Diego. Cities with the worst negative equity include Chicago, Dallas, Las Vegas, Virginia Beach, Baltimore, and Memphis. San Jose and San Francisco lead the way in positive equity. You’ll find better deals in Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago, and Houston. See the California housing market predictions, Florida housing predictions , Illinois housing market and New York housing predictions in more detail.
What’s Ahead for 2020?
The fall elections and 2020 Presidential elections are on people’s minds. Everyone’s eager to buy or sell at the right time and a Trump defeat could send both US stock markets and housing markets crashing. The best guess is that Donald Trump will win narrowly in 2020 and keep protecting fragile US business startups.
However, new housing construction starts fell by 12% in June and multifamily dropped significantly. Post free trade adjustments, higher mortgage rates, and economic uncertainty will reduce new home building. Lumber prices have dropped fast, however home prices are predicted to keeping rising. Good news for sellers.
Housing Market Synopsis: The US real estate market continues to grow with rising prices, new construction, supported by a strengthening domestic economy. President Trump as plenty of options to boost the economic forecast and city housing markets from California to Texas to Florida. It is a sellers market across the country, with persistent, buyer demand, despite gloomy housing crash forecasts for the last 4 years which missed the mark.
Check recent house prices along with sales forecasts in the Los Angeles Real Estate Market, San Francisco Real estate market, San Diego real estate market, Sacramento real estate market, Denver housing market, Chicago housing market, and Atlanta housing market. Also see how the Seattle, Houston, Miami, New York, Boston, Philadelphia and Orlando/Tampa housing markets are predicted to perform.
The dwindling numbers of homes for sale are expected to push prices upward in Los Angeles, Philadelphia, San Diego, Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Denver, Las Vegas, Dallas, Seattle, New York and and in Florida. It’s all driven by a wildly successful economy and a resistance by local and state governments to support home development in their jurisdictions.
What’s Driving the California Housing Market?
Take a look at more detailed reports of major US city markets: Florida Housing Forecast 2020 | Sacramento Housing Market | San Francisco Housing Market | Boston Real Estate Market 2020 | Miami Housing Market | Chicago Housing Forecast | New York Real Estate Predictions | Houston Market Forecast | Philadelphia Real Estate Market | Seattle Housing Report
Despite the market correction, experts feel this bull market could continue as long as business keeps coming back to the US. That’s a long process of repatriation. In the meantime, the US economy, low jobless rate, wage growth, investment, strong dollar, and profit growth are giving real estate participants a lot of optimism.
As President Trump’s Tax cuts wind down, the Fed has raised interest rates twice in 2019. It’s just one of the issues sparking stock market volatility. Is it enough to scuttle optimistic stock market predictions? No one is quite sure if its a crash or continued booming cycle. More forecasts though are for a good economy, strong home sales, low unemployment, and a well performing stock market.
Home prices should begin rising again this late spring in Florida, New York , Boston, San Diego , Houston, Miami, Seattle, Bay Area and more cities. See more on all housing markets including Florida and California on the US Housing report.
Buyers and sellers will enjoy reading the market trends, stats, threats, and the key factors including housing construction starts described below. Enjoy the big picture! Scroll down to see the stats, video, and charts on the strongest cities where you might buy or invest. And when is the best time to buy a house?
Inflation, Labor Shortages, and Building Supplies
Labor shortages, rising mortgage rates, and higher lumber costs are looming which could mean house prices will rise. With nowhere to go, homeowners are resisting selling. The hope that the resale market will come to the rescue might be unrealistic and and perhaps even fewer resale houses will be for sale.
Hottest Cities for Investment Value
This chart from NAR shows where employment growth is strongest and the ratio of recent employment growth to homes being built. That’s a great stat for rental property investors looking for investment income in the best cities.
Compare that to wage growth and actual price appreciation. Again the Bay Area shows the best outlook for employment which has to be your top signal. However, rising oil and gasoline prices and predictions for more, Texas may be your hottest state going through the summer.
Salt Lake City, Denver, Tampa, Dallas, Cape Coral/Naples, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Houston, San Diego, and Grand Rapids have great employment outlooks.
US Housing Market Forecast Part 1
How to Sell Over Asking Price | 14 Ways to Improve Your Selling Price | When Should I Sell My Home? | Best Time to Buy a House
What’s also a good omen is what you’re going to read in this post. It may help you do many things in 2019, from finding employment (see the US Jobs forecast), to understanding politics, discovering high performing best investments 2020 to researching the best cities to live or buy houses or property in.
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If construction rates do moderate, prices in the hot markets of Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles , San Diego, New York, Boston, and Phoenix should rocket to all time highs but what is the risk of a housing market crash? House Renovation too is at an all time high in expenditure and this might have an impact on new housing starts.
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