Housing Market and Stock Market Forecasts

Florida Housing Forecast 2021 | Real Estate Update Miami Orlando Tampa

Florida Real Estate Market

Florida’s real estate market was strong again in September. Sales, prices, and pending sales all rose. The average price of a house rose to $418,092 which was up 23% from last year.

And yet supply is running lower (-37.4%) which is perhaps the key indicator of rising prices in 2021. If you’re considering buying a Florida house or condo, you will be paying considerably more.  Is it a price bubble?  Likely not, with the pandemic pushing more buyers into the Florida real estate market where they can buy a roomy home for a great price. However, the election and the economy creates risk.

The fact is, a lot of people want to move to the Sunshine State. In the next 8 months, as the pandemic eases, experts will begin to notice this migration. Pent up demand is already returning, but the full demand from migrating northerners won’t hit until spring or until vaccinations are distributed. See all the latest stats below.

According to Dodge Analytics, housing starts are growing, but may not be able to match demand from home buyers.

They report total construction starts for Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties totaled $904.1 million in August, which is 46% higher month over month and 8% higher than August 2019.

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

Fewer listings is typical of the national housing market, or housing markets in Boston, Tampa, Miami, New York, California, Dallas , Denver, or San Diego. Homeowners are very reluctant to sell in this economic climate. More stats on Florida homes for sale below.

Florida’s housing market continues to gain momentum and provide support for the state’s economy, even as we all remain vigilant in protecting our health, safeguarding our communities and trying to keep businesses going during the ongoing pandemic,” said 2020 Florida Realtors President Barry Grooms

Why the demand for Florida real estate?

Here’s a few good reasons why the brisk search for Florida homes for sale:

These and more might be the key factors driving the relentless growth of the Florida housing market. It should keep Florida Realtors busy and happier.

The Much Desired Florida Real Estate Market

Florida has a lot going for it. Lower-income and property taxes, warm weather, no estate taxes, and incredible recreation and beaches make this state the most desirable place (i.e, for New Yorkers and Manhattanites) to buy a home.  While California cities are in freefall from evaders, Florida cities including Boca Raton, Miami and Tampa, are often among the best cities to buy real estate. Compare to home prices in Texas, Georgia, Colorado, or California.

The key stats below might be active listings and initial listing prices.  They show a severe downward trend in homes for sale available, particularly at cheaper prices, and that listings are still growing in the upper price tiers (48% to 57%).

Single Family House inventory in Florida. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

 

Brad O’Connor of the Florida Realtor’s Association talks of the continuing hot Florida real estate market in September Given the devastation of the Corona Virus pandemic shutdown, Realtors did a good job keeping the market thriving. From Boca Raton, to Miami to Tampa, the market is waiting for a full return.


Across Florida, Septembers’ closed sales of single-family homes is up 22% year-over-year, totaling 28,675 units.  Condo-townhouse sales increased 25.3% to 11, 2090 units vs September 2019.

The median sales prices for both single-family homes and condo-townhouse properties rose year-over-year in September for 105 consecutive months.

Single-family existing home prices rose 13.2% to $300,000 YoY while the median price for condo-townhouse units was $217,500, up 12.7% YoY.

Florida home inventory (active listings) continues tightening, especially for single-family existing homes, which dropped to a 2.2-months’ supply in September. Condo-townhouse inventory fell to a 5.1-months’ supply.

Total dollar volume of sales in August in Florida rose 45% to $3.4 Billion from $2.4 Billion last September.  The biggest issue in the Florida housing market is this fast shrinking supply, particularly at the affordable level. It is creating a crisis that pushes home prices well up in September.

Brad O’Connor said “Given all that’s occurred this year, it’s hard to believe we’re already in positive territory again, but here we are,” he said. “And all indications are that we will continue to see strong sales this fall as mortgage interest rates will almost certainly remain at or near record lows

Luxury Homes in South Florida

According to Mansion Global, South Florida’s luxury real estate market is hot. In Miami, luxury single-family home sales rocketed 76.7% YoY to 159 sales in September.  And luxury condo sales jumped 34.9% YoY to 85 units. In Miami, homes are selling 44% quicker than last year.

In Broward, high-end single-family home sales in Broward County surged 204.3% year-over-year to 143 sales in September, as existing luxury condo sales remained flat at 13.  In Palm Beach, single-family house sales jumped 72.1% compared to September 2019, and condo sales lept to 179 sales while high-end condo sales increased 110.7% to 59 transactions.

Tampa Bay Home Sales

In Tampa and Hillsborough County, active listings were down more than 40% in all four counties. Median prices hit $294,900, a rise of 15% from last year.

Florida Condo Sales Stats

September’s existing condo-townhouse closed sales rose 25.3% year-over-year to 11,290 units sold, up slightly from August. New pending sales of condos and townhouses in Florida grew 43% to 13,016 units while new listings actually rose to 14285 units or a rise of 21% year over year.   Median condo townhouse price rose to $217,500 which is up 12.7% YoY.  Did the pandemic even happen?

Sales in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Tampa, Sarasota, Clearwater and St Petes were all up substantially.

Businesses and real estate offices continue to open, and more business is being done online. Search data for real estate shows buyers are doing a lot of searches online for houses for sale.

Economic Challenges ahead for the Sunshine State

Slowing Tourism: What will happen with prices in 2021 if there is a vaccine and travel to Florida returns full tilt?

Disney World closing, Cruise lines docked, NHL hockey and NBA basketball cut short, MLB baseball training canceled, spring break vacation canceled, and restaurants closing. Florida’s $40 billion tourist industry is primed to return.

Of course, the good news is regarding a couple of breakthroughs in a Covid 19 vaccine. If 2020’s housing market is subdued, it may allow some buyers in who otherwise wouldn’t have had a hope of buying. Make sure you check out the latest mortgage rates if you’re considering buying a house or condo.

 

Covid 19 Curve Rising a Little

Avoiding a Mortgage and Housing Disaster

Stimulus money hold out will have a negative effect as could a potential stock market crash. A national housing market crash isn’t out of the question either. 40% of buyers are millennials looking for homes in the affordable range for a mortgage. yet supply in that price range is drying up.

 

 

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Florida Home Prices Rise

The median house sales price rose 13.2% or $13,000 from August’s price of $265,000.  The average price for condo townhouses was up 12.7% to $217,500.  Statewide condo inventory fell 7.4% to 47,298 units.

Florida August Median Home Prices

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

Closed Sales in September

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

New Pending Sales Rise

Pending sales rising 31% in September tells us the demand may be brisk in November too despite falling listings.

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

New Home Listings

On the positive side, new house listings actually in the high and low price points fell strongly.  Overall house listings rose 12.1%, much higher than the 2% growth last month.   Active listings fell 37.4% in September (-35.5% in August). Months of house supply dropped 38.9% to 2.2 months.

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

Months of Housing Inventory in Florida

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

New Listings

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

Home Prices and Sales by City

Florida Cities (some of the best cities to buy real estate) which saw the highest growth in house prices include Crestview Fort Walton,  Deltona Daytona Beach, Panama City, Sebring and the Villages.  Home sales were strongest in Crestview Fort Walton, Jacksonville, Sarasota Bradenton, Naples, Palm Bay, Port St Lucie and Tallahassee.

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

Florida Condo Sales and Prices

Overall statewide, condo and townhouse prices rose 10% YoY and sales rose 14.5%.  Crestview/Fort Walton, Homosassa, Naples, Ocala, Punta Gorda, and Pensacola saw the largest price gains. That’s a marked change from July’s changes.  Biggest gains in condo sales in August occurred in Crestview Fort Walton, Homosassa Springs, Cape Coral, Ocala, Panama City, Sebring, Punta Gorda and the Villages.

Here are closed sales and prices for August 2020, and the second set on the right is for 2020 year to date.

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

Florida Housing Stats 1st Quarter 2020

Both Condos and houses saw greatly reduced sales during the 2nd quarter, deep into the pandemic . These stats are worth the reminder of where we were at the bottom of the pandemic.  Both cash sales, inventory and dollar volume plummeted.

Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors Association

The economy is strong in metros such as Tampa, Sarasota, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, and Jacksonville. Consumer confidence is strong and demand for Florida fruit and vacations is high.

The national economic outlook is excellent for 2021 and beyond.

Bookmark this page and return for further forecasts, predictions and market data for most major US cities including  Los Angeles, New York City, San Diego, San Francisco, Houston, Miami, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, Salt Lake City, Manhattan, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, Tampa, Charlotte, Orlando, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu,  San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Portland, PhiladelphiaSacramento, Washington, Atlanta, Myrtle Beach, Kansas City, St Louis, Minneapolis, St Paul, Madison, Sioux City, Rapid City, Fargo, Green Bay, Rockford, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, Oceanside, Riverside, Carlsbad, Las Vegas, Colorado Springs, Reno, and Charleston. For data on Canadian cities, see the Toronto housing report, and  Vancouver housing report.

 

Florida Real Estate Outlook part 2 | Lowest Mortgage Rates | Mortgage Refinancing | Cities with Lowest House PricesWill There be a Florida Housing Crash? | Manhattan Real Estate | Florida Real Estate MarketWill House Prices Fall?Miami Housing Market | Tampa Real Estate MarketWhen is the Best Time to Buy a Home in Florida? | Where Can I Find a Good Florida Realtor? | Are House Prices Going to Fall? | Will Prices Drop in California? | Dallas Real EstateWill Mortgage Rates Drop? | Where Can I Get the Lowest Mortgages? | Forecast for the 2020 Housing Market? | Gord Collins Linkedin | Gord Collins Facebook

Housing Market Forecast – copyright Gord Collins

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