Housing Market and Stock Market Forecasts

Florida Housing Forecast 2021 | Real Estate Update Miami Orlando Tampa

Florida Real Estate Market

Florida’s real estate market in August saw an increase in closed and new pending sales, higher median house prices and growing new listings in August compared with August of last year.

The fact is, a lot of people want to move to the Sunshine State. In the next 8 months, as the pandemic eases, experts will begin to notice this migration. In the meantime, August sales and prices rose while home supply continues to run out. Another report from Florida Realtors showed 400k fewer homes were listed for sale in Florida due to the pandemic.

 

Fewer listings is typical of the national housing market, or housing markets in Boston, New York, California, Dallas , Denver, or San Diego. Homeowners are very reluctant to sell in this economic climate. More stats on Florida homes for sale below.

Listings may have dropped, but interest in buying Florida homes has not. Condo sales were up year over year as well so it’s evidence buyers want residential real estate in the state of Florida in any shape or form.

Florida’s housing market continues to gain momentum and provide support for the state’s economy, even as we all remain vigilant in protecting our health, safeguarding our communities and trying to keep businesses going during the ongoing pandemic,” said 2020 Florida Realtors President Barry Grooms

 

Why the demand for Florida real estate?

Here’s a few good reasons why the brisk search for Florida homes for sale:

These and more might be the key factors driving the relentless growth of the Florida housing market. It should keep Florida Realtors busy and happier.

The Much Desired Florida Real Estate Market

Florida has a lot going for it. Lower income and property taxes, warm weather, no estate taxes, and incredible recreation and beaches makes this state the most desirable place (i.e, for New Yorkers and Manhattanites).  While California cities are in freefall from evaders, Florida cities including Boca Raton, Miami and Tampa, are often among the best cities to buy real estate. See all the stats below to compare to home prices in Texas, Georgia, Colorado, or California.

Florida Real Estate Sales and Prices Summary. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors®.

The key stats below might be active listings and initial listing prices.  They show a severe downward trend in homes for sale available, particular at cheaper prices, and that listings are only growing in the upper price tiers.

Single Family House inventory in Florida. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

Brad O’Connor of the Florida Realtor’s Association speaks of the improving recovery of the Florida real estate market. Given the devastation of the Corona Virus pandemic shutdown, Realtors did a good job keeping the market thriving. From Boca Raton, to Miami to Tampa, the market is waiting for a full return.

 

 

Across Florida, house sales grew 8.8% from July to 29,495 units.  The median home price for single-family homes rose 13.2% to $300,000.  New pending sales rose 21.5% to 32,300 units while new listing grew only 2% to 30,282 units.  Inventory of houses for sale dropped by 30,490 units (-35.5%0) to 55,464 units.

Total dollar volume of sales in August in Florida rose $3 billion to 13.2 Billion.  The biggest issue in the Florida house market is this fast shrinking supply, particularly at the affordable level. It is creating a crisis that push home prices well up in September.

Florida Condo Sales Stats

August’s existing condo-townhouse closed sales rose 10% year-over-year to 11,100 units sold. New pending sales of condos and townhouses in Florida grew 20.7% to 12,713 units while new listings actually rose 1800 or 15% year over year.   Median condo townhouse price rose to $217,500 which is up 14.5% YoY.  Did the pandemic even happen?

Sales in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Tampa, Sarasota, Clearwater and St Petes were all up substantially.

Businesses and real estate offices continue to open, and more business is being done online. Search data for real estate shows buyers are doing a lot of searches online for houses for sale.

Economic Challenges ahead for the Sunshine State

Slowing Tourism: What will happen with prices in 2021 if there is a vaccine and travel to Florida returns full tilt?

Disney World closing, Cruise lines docked, NHL hockey and NBA basketball cut short, MLB baseball training cancelled, spring break vacation cancelled, and restaurants closing. Florida’s $40 billion tourist industry is primed to return.

Of course, the good news is regarding a couple of breakthroughs in a Covid 19 vaccine. If 2020’s housing market is subdued, it may allow some buyers in who otherwise wouldn’t have had a hope of buying. Make sure you check out the latest mortgage rates if you’re considering buying a house or condo.

 

Covid 19 Curve Flattening

Screenshot courtesy of Google and Wikipedia.

Avoiding a Mortgage and Housing Disaster

Stimulus money could reduce the chance of a severe prolonged Florida recession, stock market crash. and potentially a housing market crash.  40% of buyers are millennials looking for homes in the affordable range for a mortgage. Florida’s homes are cheap enough that stimulus helps, whereas homes in California for instance, are far out of the reach of wage earning millennials.

 

 

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Florida Home Prices Rise

The median house sales price rose $5000 from last months price of $295,000 to $300,000 (+10.1%).  The average price for condo townhouses was up 9.6% to $200,000.  Statewide condo inventory was up 14.5% to $217,500.

Florida August Median Home Prices

Florida Median Home Price. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors®

Closed Sales in July

Florida Closed House Sales. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors®

New Pending Sales Rise

Pending sales tell us the demand may be brisk in August, September and October despite falling listings.

Florida New Pending Home Sales. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors®

New and Active House Listings

On the positive side, new house listings dropped YoY.   Active listings fell 31.8% in July. Months of supply dropped and the issue of low availability of houses for sales could generate upward price pressure in August, September and October.

Florida New Home Listings. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors®

Months of Housing Inventory in Florida

Florida Housing inventory August. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors®

New Listings

New house for sale listings. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors®

Home Prices and Sales by City

Florida Cities (some of the best cities to buy real estate) which saw the highest growth in house prices include Crestview Fort Walton,  Deltona Daytona Beach, Panama City, Sebring and the Villages.  Home sales were strongest in Crestview Fort Walton, Jacksonville, Sarasota Bradenton, Naples, Palm Bay, Port St Lucie and Tallahassee.

House Prices Florida Cities. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors®

Florida Condo Sales and Prices

Overall statewide, condo and townhouse prices rose 10% YoY and sales rose 14.5%.  Crestview/Fort Walton, Homosassa, Naples, Ocala, Punta Gorda, and Pensacola saw the largest price gains. That’s a marked change from July’s changes.  Biggest gains in condo sales in August occurred in Crestview Fort Walton, Homosassa Springs, Cape Coral, Ocala, Panama City, Sebring, Punta Gorda and the Villages.

Here are closed sales and prices for August 2020, and the second set on the right is for 2020 year to date.

Florida Condo Sales Stats. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors®

Florida Housing Stats 1st Quarter 2020

Both Condos and houses saw greatly increased prices during 1st quarter of 2020 vs 2019. These stats are worth the reminder of where we were before the pandemic.  Naples, Pensacola, and Panama city saw the biggest gains. Condo prices rose most in Jacksonville, Miami, Punta Gorda and Melbourne.

The economy is strong in metros such as Tampa, Sarasota, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, and Jacksonville. Consumer confidence is strong and demand for Florida fruit and vacations is high.

Florida Real Estate Report for 2nd Quarter 2020. Screenshot courtesy of Florida Realtors.

The national economic outlook is excellent for 2021 and beyond.

 

Bookmark this page and return for further forecasts, predictions and market data for most major US cities including  Los Angeles, New York City, San Diego, San Francisco, Houston, Miami, Dallas, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, Tampa, Charlotte, Orlando, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu,  San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Portland, PhiladelphiaSacramento, Washington, Atlanta, Myrtle Beach, Kansas City, St Louis, Minneapolis, St Paul, Madison, Sioux City, Rapid City, Fargo, Green Bay, Rockford, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, Austin, San Antonio, Oceanside, Riverside, Carlsbad, Las Vegas, Colorado Springs, Reno, and Charleston. For data on Canadian cities, see the Toronto housing report, and  Vancouver housing report.

 

Florida Real Estate Outlook part 2 | Lowest Mortgage Rates | Mortgage Refinancing | Cities with Lowest House PricesWill There be a Florida Housing Crash? | Manhattan Real Estate | Florida Real Estate MarketWill House Prices Fall?Miami Housing Market | Tampa Real Estate MarketWhen is the Best Time to Buy a Home in Florida? | Where Can I Find a Good Florida Realtor? | Are House Prices Going to Fall? | Will Prices Drop in California? | Dallas Real EstateWill Mortgage Rates Drop? | Where Can I Get the Lowest Mortgages? | Forecast for the 2020 Housing Market? | Gord Collins Linkedin | Gord Collins Facebook

Housing Market Forecast – copyright Gord Collins

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