US Jobs Outlook
The stock markets responded well to the June jobs growth news, while being depressed by Corona Virus outbreaks and other uncertainties. The July jobs certainly suffered because of the riots and wicked disease outbreaks in California, Arizona, Florida and Texas.
The economy grew an outstanding 4.8 million jobs in June and a further 1.8 million in July. Unemployment dropped to 10.2%. Wage growth has been the best in the last 4 decades.
There’s a long way to go, but given the resurgence of Covid 19 outbreaks and reclosing of businesses, these are positive results.
High Level View: positive job numbers show the workplace is reviving and a rising tide will lift all ships including stock prices, housing prices, small business survival rates, consumer spending, and provide some relief from the Corona Virus devastation.
Jobless Claims Fall Below 1 Million
Jobless claims just reported on Thursday are the lowest number since March. Long term continuing claims decreased more than 600,000 to 15.5 million. About 30 million Americans are collecting unemployment benefits
Excellent News for US Workers: Wages Rising
The outlook for wage levels in the US is on an upward tangent. In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 7 cents to $29.39 an hour.
July Job Growth
In July, the unemployment rate declined by 0.9 percentage point to 10.2%. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose 1.8 million in July, after growth of 4.8 million jobs in June and 2.7 million jobs in May.
Two key job stats: The largest employment increases in July were in leisure and hospitality, government, retail trade, professional and business services, and health care.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to to 34.5 hours in July.
People working part time rose by 803,000 to 24.0 million, and full time employees stayed level at 119.5 million.
- employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 592,000, much better than the losses of 7.5 million in April and 743,000 in March during the pandemic.
- Construction employment was little changed (+20,000), after job gains of 619,000 in May and June combined.
- Employment increased by 424,000 in education and health services in May, after a decrease of 2.6 million in April
- Government employment rose 301,000 but is still below February’s employed numbers
- Manufacturing employment rose by 26,000 jobs
- Professional and business services added 170,000 jobs last month however most were part time
- Financial services sector saw a rise of 21,000 jobs over the month, contrasted with the loss of 264,000 jobs in April
As we know, the stock market indexes reflect the fortunes of large corporations such as IBM, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Oracle, GM, Ford, and Amazon rather than small business. May’s new jobs report may foretell of better survival rates for small businesses, which may ease bankruptcy.
There are many pessimists downplaying the incredible strength of the US economy and criticizing any rosy US economic forecast. for 3 months or 5 year outlooks. At times like this, we have a respite from big media news outlets, who by the way are still lamenting about past month’s unemployment rather than reporting this new jobs report.
These jobs numbers reflect where we’re headed back to later this year. Consumer demand will return as workers are hired back. In fact, their credit lines will get a workout as they satisfy some latent demand and begin some summer spending.
Housing prices will return and credit worthiness will improve. Will mortgage numbers grow? Certainly applications for mortgages are returning.
As the state’s and federal workplace shutdown eases the job numbers for June, July and August will likely be even better. Of course, reports on Covid 19 breakouts, second waves, stimulus money, and trade data will be influential on future job forecasts.
Return of construction jobs is particularly important to the housing market. Housing market predictions were increasingly glum throughout the last 3 months.
Please bookmark as new charts will be available soon.
We have to keep in mind that the same upward revision might happen to December’s figures. The BLS figures for December are not out yet.
With trade and economic news favoring the US economy, the 2020 job forecast might be better than even experts forecast. The stock market is a believer and the housing market 2020 is seeing upward pressure on sales and higher home prices.
Highlights of the ADP Report for July
Private-sector employment increased by 167,000 from June to July, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- private sector jobs rose 167,000
- goods production jobs up 1000
- mid sized companies lost 25000 jobs
- small companies added 63000 jobs
- large enterprises added 129000 jobs
- trade transportation jobs up 41000
- real estate jobs up 8,000
- financial jobs added 26,000
- construction jobs fell 8,000
- manufacturing jobs up 10000
- professional and business jobs up 58,000
- education and health up 46,000
- leisure and hospitality down 38,000
The growth for SMBs is especially positive as that fuels even more growth in the overall economy.
Remembering Last Job Report Last November
November was yet another outstanding month for the US job market. It’s the numbers stock market investors love hearing. It means the economy is rolling along because employers are optimistic about 2020.
In November, the jobless rate fell to 3.5%, equalling the lowest rate since 1969. The 60’s were a very good time. The labor force participation rate rose slightly, to 63.2%. The 266,000 jobs created was the strongest performance since last January. The usual trend of seasonal unemployment hasn’t taken hold in a while. These are historic employment numbers.
For students graduating in the spring, this jobs report suggests the next 5 years might be great years to launch their careers. Studies show students who graduate into recessions suffer their entire lives.
US Unemployment Rate Timeline
New US Plants Might be Popping up More Often
The coming trade war with China should encourage the building and repatriation of huge numbers of manufacturing plants in very lucrative industries.
If industry has been good for China, it will be especially good for the US.
It seems skittish corporate business owners are cheating themselves out of a strong economy. Despite their pessimism over International trade, US consumption is excellent. Fears of a recession are diminishing even with the Iran conflict in full bloom.
Does anyone remember 2009?
2021 Brings More Optimism for the Job Hunt
Wages: Average hourly wages grew again by 7 cents to $28.29 an hour. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 3.7%. Average weekly earnings have risen 5.4% since last July.
Recent stock market volatility is no reflection of this booming US economy. The government shut down will certain lower January’s rates, but as spring approaches, with the import tariffs intact, employment and wages should rise again. Which states/cities should benefit most? Florida, Atlanta, San Francisco, Tampa, Phoenix, Indianapolis, Boston, Milwaukee,
Although multinationals are balking at repatriating jobs from overseas the picture is excellent for US-based companies. Investment in US stocks will be strong this year whereas Faang stocks may falter.
Labor unrest seems to have eased as wages are beginning to climb and the jobless rate is falling. With the end of the Corona Virus by spring of 2021, unemployment should plummet as personal service, entertainment, leisure and travel jobs return in full force.
One US economist forecasted that labor markets will tighten and wage growth will accelerate. 2020 will be good times for American workers. Offshore workers too will likely see upward growth as the US pulls up their wages.
When the economy gains momentum, wages rise, and optimism grows. we’ll like see the additional effects of a resurgent home prices and the effects of investment in housing. The forecast was for a much slower end to 2019, but even with stock market volatility and flat housing prices, these job numbers reflect the good times are rolling right into 2020.
Demand for young workers and professionals will be high. Employment is increasingly dominated by older workers as we approach 2026, and yet a smaller pool of young workers will be available. That is good news for older workers too, but as baby boomers retire, competent young replacements will be needed and wanted by corporations.
Jobs Forecasts and Data
The Covid 19 disease from China has devastated the US and its made long term economic forecasts, housing forecasts and stock market forecasts difficult. Experts are focusing on 3 months at a time right now.
Will Florida, California, Texas have the job opportunities once Covid 19 runs its course? The charts, videos and commentary below show the best cities and employment/jobs sectors with the most promise. California will certainly lead in jobs produced from artificial intelligence. Programmers in AI will write their own checks.
From manufacturing to transportation and infrastructure development to energy to retail trade, 2020 looks like a rare opportunity for US workers to move, land a good paying job, grow their skills, experience, enjoyment, or buy a home, travel, and invest.
“Today, the ratio of unemployed Americans to open jobs stands at 1.4 to 1, down sharply from 6.6 to 1 during the last recession in July 2009. That shrinking pool of job seekers translates into fewer available candidates — leading to today’s growing reliance on recruiting from passive, already employed candidates.” – from Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor.com
Professional and business services looking strong in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming. Wages gains will be strongest in: Leisure & Hospitality (28%), Professional & Business Services, (25%), Transportation & Utilities (24%), Mining (22%), Wholesale & Retail Trade (22%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (19%), and Construction (18%),
California Jobs by Sector
Love those California wages, but not so much the California housing market.
Average Income by State
Growth in average income by state was a hot 5.0% in the 1st quarter of 2018, and still good at 4.2% in the 2nd quarter.
Will Fair Trade Create a Better Outlook for the US Worker?
What we learned from the free trade era is that good jobs inevitably leave to be near where products are designed and manufactured, especially if it’s cheap. Corporations are cutthroat when it comes to profit and tax reduction.
And today, investment funds flows in a millisecond, away from taxation to the cheapest labor markets. US investment dollars were building jobs in other countries. What was left are skeletal retail sales and warehouse distribution jobs — few, part-time, and poor paying — the kind you already know all too well and which are being automated.
Canada and the UK have suffered equally with Free Trade however, will Fair Trade deliver sustained employment between honest trade partners?
The new post-Obama era holds a lot of promise for Millennials and Gen Z’s who are sadly mired in personal and student loan debt and only have a vague dream of ever buying a home. For babyboomers, this last kick at the can might be a very good kick!
The fact the US has performed as well as it has, shows this country’s creativity and resilience through the past 30 years. But this is a momentous time where very high quality jobs and business investment money will return to the US. Those who are skilled and experienced should be in exceptionally high demand and incomes will definitely rise. It’s good to be skilled and in demand!
Fresh Updated Forecast from Manpower Group
According to the new study and report by ManpowerGroup, a major information provider for employment forecasts, predictions and outlooks. Manpower Group surveyed more than 11,000 employers to learn more about their attitudes, needs and forecasts for hiring for 4th quarter 2018.
From the ManPowerGroup report, here are the cities with the best job forecast outlook:
Best Employment Sectors: Manufacturing, Wholesale & Retail Trade, Transportation & Utilities
The ManpowerGroup report doesn’t touch much on the Oil & Gas industry which could significant growth. Oil prices are rising slightly to under $60 a barrel for the next 2 years. With a rising USD dollar, US energy exports could be very lucrative. Will North Dakota see a jobs boom?
Remember the Job growth in the Energy industry back in 2017?
According to the US energy jobs report,
“Energy Efficiency employers project the highest growth rate over the next 12 months (9%), followed by Electric Power Generation (7%); Transmission, Distribution, and Storage (6%), and Motor Vehicles (3%).
The report suggests manufacturing in the energy sector will be low growth, but will Trump’s intentions change that?
The Best and Worst Cities for Jobs in the US
WalletHub has released its survey of US employers and generated a rating system of best cities for jobs. WalletHub’s analysts assessed 150 of the most populated U.S. cities across 23 key indicators of job-market strength. Criteria for job outlook rankings included: job opportunities, employment growth, median annual income and more. You can see the full list at Wallethub.com.
Where will you find a job this year? Here’s the latest employment outlook in the US:
|Rank||City||Total Score||‘Job Market’ Rank||Socio economic Rank|
|4||Sioux Falls, SD||64.72||5||11|
|5||San Francisco, CA||63.37||6||34|
|6||Rancho Cucamonga, CA||63.35||7||15|
|8||Salt Lake City, UT||62.54||10||25|
|14||Fort Lauderdale, FL||60.23||12||79|
|15||Fort Wayne, IN||60.15||8||73|
|19||Overland Park, KS||59.58||34||5|
|20||San Jose, CA||59.41||22||38|
|26||Grand Prairie, TX||58.59||23||55|
|28||Little Rock, AR||58.41||17||103|
|30||Huntington Beach, CA||57.95||37||20|
|38||San Diego, CA||56.98||48||21|
|39||Colorado Springs, CO||56.95||43||28|
|43||St. Louis, MO||56.5||32||76|
|51||St. Paul, MN||55.36||76||14|
|57||Las Vegas, NV||54.87||62||43|
|58||San Antonio, TX||54.6||39||107|
|59||St. Petersburg, FL||54.58||61||53|
|60||Grand Rapids, MI||54.51||75||29|
|71||Jersey City, NJ||53.29||82||44|
|72||Pembroke Pines, FL||53.15||74||65|
|73||Santa Rosa, CA||53.02||88||35|
|74||Virginia Beach, VA||52.85||92||18|
|75||Oklahoma City, OK||52.78||72||89|
What are your thoughts on the jobs forecast and outlook for 2020? Will Donald Trump be able to bring jobs back to the US or will the mid-terms, democrats, and trade frictions end the Make America Great Again campaign? Is free trade about to transition to fair trade, or will Trump simply reverse the trade deficits with China, Mexico and Indonesia?
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Bookmark this page and return for further forecasts, predictions and market data for most major US cities including Los Angeles, New York City, San Diego, San Francisco, Houston, Miami, Dallas, Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, Chicago, Boston, Tampa, Charlotte, Orlando, Anaheim, Beverly Hills, Malibu, San Jose, Fresno, Santa Clara, Mountainview, Palo Alto, Portland, Philadelphia, Sacramento, Washington, Atlanta, Myrtle Beach, Kansas City, St Louis, Minneapolis, St Paul, Madison, Sioux City, Rapid City, Fargo, Green Bay, Rockford, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, Austin, San Antonio, Oceanside, Riverside, Carlsbad, Las Vegas, Colorado Springs, Reno, and Charleston. For data on Canadian cities, see the Toronto housing report, and Vancouver housing report.
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