Now is The Right Time to Repatriate Jobs to the…
US Jobs Outlook
May’s jobs report was particularly positive with more than 2 million new jobs created. That was against forecasts of a loss of 8.3 million jobs. Again, professional forecasting organizations don’t seem to have a handle on economic activity or trending events.
High Level View: positive job numbers show the workplace is reviving and a rising tide will lift all ships including stock prices, housing prices, small business survival rates, consumer spending, and provide some relief from the Corona Virus devastation.
May Was a Transitional Month for Jobs
Although the unemployment rate fell 1.4% to 13.3%, the total registered unemployed remains elevated at 21 million.
Two key job stats: Manufacturing jobs increased by a whopping 225,000 while government payrolls fell by more than 585,000. Also, the number of people who actually want a job decreased by almost one million in May.
Unfortunately, wages declined by 1.0%. Hours worked grew to 34.7 hours from 34.2. Canada posted similar numbers to the US with 290,000 job gains against expert forecasts of half a million job losses. The number of full time workers grew by 2.2 million to 116.5 million, part timers rose by 1.6 million to 20.7 million.
- employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 1.2 million, following losses of 7.5 million in April and 743,000 in March
- Construction employment increased by 464,000 in May, gaining back almost half of April’s decline (-995,000)
- Employment increased by 424,000 in education and health services in May, after a decrease of 2.6 million in April
- manufacturing employment rose by 225,000, with gains about evenly split between the durable and nondurable goods components offsetting April’s loss of 1.3 million jobs
- Professional and business services added 127,000 jobs in May, after shedding 2.2 million jobs in April
- Financial services sector saw a rise of 33,000 jobs over the month, after a loss of 264,000 jobs in April
- jobs fell in government (-585,000), following the loss of 963,000 in April — jobs in local government dropped by 487,000 in May.
As we know, the stock market indexes reflect the fortunes of large corporations such as IBM, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Oracle, GM, Ford, and Amazon rather than small business. May’s new jobs report may foretell of better survival rates for small businesses, which may ease bankruptcy.
There are many pessimists downplaying the incredible strength of the US economy and criticizing any rosy US economic forecast. for 3 months or 5 year outlooks. At times like this, we have a respite from big media news outlets, who by the way are still lamenting about past month’s unemployment rather than reporting this new jobs report.
These jobs numbers reflect where we’re headed back to later this year. Consumer demand will return as workers are hired back. In fact, their credit lines will get a workout as they satisfy some latent demand and begin some summer spending.
Housing prices will return and credit worthiness will improve. Will mortgage numbers grow? Certainly applications for mortgages are returning.
As the state’s and federal workplace shutdown eases the job numbers for June, July and August will likely be even better. Of course, reports on Covid 19 breakouts, second waves, stimulus money, and trade data will be influential on future job forecasts.
Return of construction jobs is particularly important to the housing market. Housing market predictions were increasingly glum thoughout the last 3 months.
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We have to keep in mind that the same upward revision might happen to December’s figures. The BLS figures for December are not out yet.
With trade and economic news favoring the US economy, the 2020 job forecast might be better than even experts forecast. The stock market is a believer and the housing market is seeing upward pressure on sales, perhaps soon higher home prices.
BLS reported total nonfarm payroll employment rose by an astonishing 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5%. They cited job gains occurred in health care and social assistance,
food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities.
Both the unemployment rate, at 3.5 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 5.8 million, changed little in February. The unemployment rate has been either 3.5% or 3.6% for the previous 6 months.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 9 cents to $28.52.
Highlights of the ADP Report (to be updated)
- private sector jobs rose 273,000
- goods production jobs up
- mid sized companies grew jobs
- small companies added jobs
- large enterprises added jobs
- franchise employment growth us 59,700
- real estate jobs up 8,000
- financial jobs added 26,000
- construction jobs up 42,000
- manufacturing jobs
- professional and business jobs up 61,000
- education and health up 49,000
- leisure and hospitality down 10,000
The growth for SMBs is especially positive as that fuels even more growth in the overall economy.
Highlights of the US Job Report November
November was yet another outstanding month for the US job market. It’s the numbers stock market investors love hearing. It means the economy is rolling along because employers are optimistic about 2020.
In November, the jobless rate fell to 3.5%, equalling the lowest rate since 1969. The 60’s were a very good time. The labor force participation rate rose slightly, to 63.2%. The 266,000 jobs created was the strongest performance since last January. The usual trend of seasonal unemployment hasn’t taken hold in a while. These are historic employment numbers.
For students graduating in the spring, this jobs report suggests the next 5 years might be great years to launch their careers. Studies show students who graduate into recessions suffer their entire lives.
US Unemployment Rate Timeline
New US Plants Might be Popping up More Often
CNBC attributes November’s gains to the end of the GM strike which shrank previous months totals. GM announced they intend to build a huge new electric vehicle in Lordstown Ohio (rust belt renewal) a fantastic economic injection for the region. The plant is a joint venture with LG, and investment of $2.3 billion.
Don’t want to be partisan here, but President Trump’s insistence on America First and the use of tariffs is finally getting CEOs to build these plants in the USA. This auto manufacturing plant will create 1100 jobs.
US wages rose 3.1% year over year again beating expectations by the Dow Jones economists.
Jim Cramer’s old buddy Larry Kudlow stated “Bottom line, America is working” on the investment show Squawk on the Street. Kudlow added, “These are very strong numbers. These are happy numbers, these are sunny Friday numbers.”
It seems skittish corporate business owners are cheating themselves out of a strong economy. Despite their pessimism over International trade, US consumption is excellent. Fears of a recession are diminishing even with the Iran conflict in full bloom.
BLS reports that in November, discouraged workers declined by 128,000 from a year earlier. 432,000 fewer people were marginally attached to the workforce (1.2 million) than 12 months ago. These are stats the media companies don’t discuss. Yet today, with low housing availability high rents, these jobs are vital to the health of the country.
Does anyone remember 2009?
2020 Brings Optimism for the Job Hunt
Wages: Average hourly wages grew again by 7 cents to $28.29 an hour. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 3.1%.
Recent stock market volatility is no reflection of this booming US economy. The government shut down will certain lower January’s rates, but as spring approaches, with the import tariffs intact, employment and wages should rise again. Which states/cities should benefit most? Florida, Atlanta, San Francisco, Tampa, Phoenix, Indianapolis, Boston, Milwaukee,
Although multinationals are balking at repatriating jobs from overseas the picture is excellent for US-based companies. Investment in US stocks will be strong this year whereas Faang stocks may falter.
Labor unrest seems to have eased as wages are beginning to climb and the jobless rate is as low as it can go.
One US economist forecasted that labor markets will tighten and wage growth will accelerate. 2020 will be good times for American workers. Offshore workers too will likely see upward growth as the US pulls up their wages.
When the economy gains momentum, wages rise, and optimism grows. we’ll like see the additional effects of a resurgent home prices and the effects of investment in housing. The forecast was for a much slower end to 2019, but even with stock market volatility and flat housing prices, these job numbers reflect the good times are rolling right into 2020.
Bureau of Labor Statistics Showing a Turnaround
BLS forecasted a drop in manufacturing jobs, yet you can see manufacturing jobs are coming back from Asia.
BLS November Job Stats Brief :
- unemployment fell 44,000 or .1% to 3.5%
- number of unemployed persons decreased by 270,000 to 6.0 million
- person employed in part time jobs for economic reasons rose 263,000 to 4.3 million (a pool of workers ready for full time jobs coming)
- there were 325,000 discouraged workers same as one year ago
- job gains in professional and technical (+31,000), in health care (+45,000), and in transportation and warehousing (+16,000), construction (+24,000), leisure and hospitality (+45,000), financial services (+13,000) and mining lost 5000 jobs.
- manufacturing jobs rose 54,000
- those worker with high school diploma saw unemployment rate rise .2% while those with college level education saw their jobless rate fall .2%
Career Opportunity for Debt Ridden Students
With employers desperate for workers and willing to train them, it’s an especially rosy picture. The power is shifting to workers and away from the multinationals and democrats, who are obviously not happy about it.
Demand for young workers and professionals will be high. Employment is increasingly dominated by older workers as we approach 2026, and yet a smaller pool of young workers will be available. That is good news for older workers too, but as babyboomers retire, competent young replacements will be needed and wanted by corporations.
Young people are saddled with debt, yet it’s reported they don’t care about the “Make America Great Again” campaign to create high paying jobs for them now and in the next decade. Was high priced US education certificates nothing more than a scam to prepare young people for jobs that were not going to appear?
US-based Manufacturing starting to boom: The goods producing sector is expected to increase by 219,000 jobs, growing at a rate of 0.1% per year over the next 8 years.
Jobs Forecasts and Data
Where should I look for the best jobs? Does Florida, California, Texas have the opportunities I want? The charts, videos and commentary below show the best cities and employment/jobs sectors with the most promise. California will certainly lead in jobs produced from artificial intelligence. Programmers in AI will write their own checks.
From manufacturing to transportation and infrastructure development to energy to retail trade, 2020 looks like a rare opportunity for US workers to move, land a good paying job, grow their skills, experience, enjoyment, or buy a home, travel, and invest.
“Today, the ratio of unemployed Americans to open jobs stands at 1.4 to 1, down sharply from 6.6 to 1 during the last recession in July 2009. That shrinking pool of job seekers translates into fewer available candidates — leading to today’s growing reliance on recruiting from passive, already employed candidates.” – from Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor.com
Professional and business services looking strong in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming. Wages gains will be strongest in: Leisure & Hospitality (28%), Professional & Business Services, (25%), Transportation & Utilities (24%), Mining (22%), Wholesale & Retail Trade (22%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (19%), and Construction (18%),
California Jobs by Sector
Love those California wages, but not so much the California housing market.
Average Income by State
Growth in average income by state was a hot 5.0% in the 1st quarter of 2018, and still good at 4.2% in the 2nd quarter.
Will Fair Trade Create a Better Outlook for the US Worker?
What we learned from the free trade era is that good jobs inevitably leave to be near where products are designed and manufactured, especially if it’s cheap. Corporations are cutthroat when it comes to profit and tax reduction.
And today, investment funds flows in a millisecond, away from taxation to the cheapest labor markets. US investment dollars were building jobs in other countries. What was left are skeletal retail sales and warehouse distribution jobs — few, part-time, and poor paying — the kind you already know all too well and which are being automated.
Canada and the UK have suffered equally with Free Trade however, will Fair Trade deliver sustained employment between honest trade partners?
The new post-Obama era holds a lot of promise for Millennials and Gen Z’s who are sadly mired in personal and student loan debt and only have a vague dream of ever buying a home. For babyboomers, this last kick at the can might be a very good kick!
The fact the US has performed as well as it has, shows this country’s creativity and resilience through the past 30 years. But this is a momentous time where very high quality jobs and business investment money will return to the US. Those who are skilled and experienced should be in exceptionally high demand and incomes will definitely rise. It’s good to be skilled and in demand!
Fresh Updated Forecast from Manpower Group
According to the new study and report by ManpowerGroup, a major information provider for employment forecasts, predictions and outlooks. Manpower Group surveyed more than 11,000 employers to learn more about their attitudes, needs and forecasts for hiring for 4th quarter 2018.
From the ManPowerGroup report, here are the cities with the best job forecast outlook:
Best Employment Sectors: Manufacturing, Wholesale & Retail Trade, Transportation & Utilities
The ManpowerGroup report doesn’t touch much on the Oil & Gas industry which could significant growth. Oil prices are rising slightly to under $60 a barrel for the next 2 years. With a rising USD dollar, US energy exports could be very lucrative. Will North Dakota see a jobs boom?
According to the US energy jobs report,
“Energy Efficiency employers project the highest growth rate over the next 12 months (9%), followed by Electric Power Generation (7%); Transmission, Distribution, and Storage (6%), and Motor Vehicles (3%).
The report suggests manufacturing in the energy sector will be low growth, but will Trump’s intentions change that?
The Best and Worst Cities for Jobs in the US
WalletHub has released its survey of US employers and generated a rating system of best cities for jobs. WalletHub’s analysts assessed 150 of the most populated U.S. cities across 23 key indicators of job-market strength. Criteria for job outlook rankings included: job opportunities, employment growth, median annual income and more. You can see the full list at Wallethub.com
Where will you find a job this year? Here’s the latest employment outlook in the US:
|Rank||City||Total Score||‘Job Market’ Rank||Socio economic Rank|
|4||Sioux Falls, SD||64.72||5||11|
|5||San Francisco, CA||63.37||6||34|
|6||Rancho Cucamonga, CA||63.35||7||15|
|8||Salt Lake City, UT||62.54||10||25|
|14||Fort Lauderdale, FL||60.23||12||79|
|15||Fort Wayne, IN||60.15||8||73|
|19||Overland Park, KS||59.58||34||5|
|20||San Jose, CA||59.41||22||38|
|26||Grand Prairie, TX||58.59||23||55|
|28||Little Rock, AR||58.41||17||103|
|30||Huntington Beach, CA||57.95||37||20|
|38||San Diego, CA||56.98||48||21|
|39||Colorado Springs, CO||56.95||43||28|
|43||St. Louis, MO||56.5||32||76|
|51||St. Paul, MN||55.36||76||14|
|57||Las Vegas, NV||54.87||62||43|
|58||San Antonio, TX||54.6||39||107|
|59||St. Petersburg, FL||54.58||61||53|
|60||Grand Rapids, MI||54.51||75||29|
|71||Jersey City, NJ||53.29||82||44|
|72||Pembroke Pines, FL||53.15||74||65|
|73||Santa Rosa, CA||53.02||88||35|
|74||Virginia Beach, VA||52.85||92||18|
|75||Oklahoma City, OK||52.78||72||89|
What are your thoughts on the jobs forecast and outlook for 2020? Will Donald Trump be able to bring jobs back to the US or will the mid-terms, democrats, and trade frictions end the Make America Great Again campaign? Is free trade about to transition to fair trade, or will Trump simply reverse the trade deficits with China, Mexico and Indonesia?
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