US Jobs Outlook for 2019/2020
February’s US jobs report just announced was much worse than anticipated. A lull in job creation was expected after the Tariff deadline.
Experts are saying the hot economy has run out of stimulus gas, the real culprit now might be the China trade talks. If US business leaders believe China could retake the US markets, they would like stop hiring. Wages rising plus renewed, desperate Chinese competition is a very real threat. Will there be a recession?
January’s jobs report showed another huge jump in new employment growth – 304,000 jobs to complement December’s 312,000 jobs added. It’s pushing wages up as desired, however now employers have stopped hiring.
A Great Year To Jumpstart a Better Career
In 2019, job hunters will leave low paying jobs to acquire something better. They’ll be buoyed by rising wages (up 3% in January). Discouraged workers remained similar in January at 416,000. There are still 4.6 million unemployed people, and 1.2 marginally attached workers. This means there is room for growth and that further improvement in participation rates will happen.
2019 will be a record year for recruiters, employment companies, job portals (Indeed), and graduating students hoping to land a better job.
Wages: Average hourly wages grew to 27.56. The last 12 months saw workers make 85 cents more per hour (3.2%). That rise is 1.3% above the inflation rate. Take a look at employment in specific industries below.
Recent stock market volatility is no reflection of this booming US economy. The government shut down will certain lower January’s rates, but as spring approaches, with the import tariffs intact, employment and wages should rise again. Which states/cities should benefit most? Florida, Atlanta, San Francisco, Tampa, Phoenix, Indianapolis, Boston, Milwaukee,
Although multinationals are balking at repatriating jobs from overseas (and some such as GM have moved to Mexico) the picture is excellent for US-based companies. As jobs come back from overseas, the wage rate will finally create upward pressure on wages by this summer and 2020. Investment in US stocks will be strong this year whereas Fang stocks will falter.
Great News – Higher Quality Jobs and Careers
Again in December, job growth came from health care, construction, and manufacturing. Workers can now take some chances to find a better job, perhaps in a new city. The bump in unemployment is being attributed to exactly these type of quit and find better job type searchers.
- employment in professional and business services continued to trend up 74,000
(+30,000) which added 546,000 jobs in 2018, outpacing the 458,000 jobs added in 2017.
- jobs in retail trade grew 21,000 — general merchandise stores (+15,000) and automobile dealers (+6,000).
- construction jobs were up 52,000 and most of that with specialty trade contractors
- durable and nondurable goods manufacturing job growth was up 13,000 and 20,000 respectively.
- heavy and civil engineering construction jobs rose 19,000 (10,000 last month) and non-residential specialty trade construction rose by 19,000 (16,000 last month)
The Fed’s interest rate increases and its complaint about these strong jobs reports (+3.1%, the best since 2008) are an insult to long suffering workers. These same growth rates would have been considered gravely disappointing to the Chinese, if this had this been China’s own stats.
Unemployment rose slightly to 4.0%. However, the government shutdown would have had some impact on the numbers. And 3rd quarter 2018 GDP rose 3.6% (latest published) so businesses are enjoying excellent returns on their investment in America’s workforce. And it’s not hurting the NASDAQ, DOW or S&P either.
Will this year’s wage rises going to rebuild America’s long missing middle class, or will the new Fed interest rate increases extinguish the flame, and the hopes of a generation? The removal of Free Trade is the key factor that supports wage growth and a less stressful fight for existence for Americans. Workers are increasingly getting paid what they’re worth in aiding corporate profits.
One US economist forecasts that labor markets will tighten and wage growth will accelerate. 2019/2020 will be good times for American workers. Offshore workers too will likely see upward growth as the US pulls up their wages. Soon, we’ll see real estate economics enter the picture to bolster demand for US workers.
When the economy gains momentum, wages rise, and optimism grows, we’ll like see the additional effects of a resurgent housing market and the effects of investment in housing. Will the massive wave of resentment of the democrats be enough to douse the republican’s party? The downturn is beginning to add to a slow period this late winter.
The January 1st China Tariff Deadline
While retailers and multinational companies are bringing in product before the Jan 1st tariff deadline, it might only create a blip in certain job sectors, overall in 2019. It reflects a very solid US economic forecast.
Total employment is projected to keep growing by 11.5 million jobs over the 2016–2026 decade, reaching 167.6 million jobs in 2026. You can see all the sectors improving, but manufacturing is one to keep an eye on. Over a 12 month period ending in July, U.S. manufacturing added 327,000 jobs, the most of any 12-month period since April 1995. During Jan to Mar phase, it will be suppressed, but as spring approaches, manufacturing growth will bloom.
Survey Suggests Optimism Globally
Will US hiring resurgence kill jobs globally? According to ManpowerGroup, no.
“Fourth-quarter hiring plans strengthen in 22 of 44 countries and territories when compared to the July-September time frame, weaken in 14 and are unchanged in eight. When compared to last year at this time, Outlooks improve in 23 countries and territories, weaken in 13 and are unchanged in seven.” — ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey United States 4th Quarter 2018.
Bureau of Labor Statistics Showing a Turnaround
BLS forecasted a drop in manufacturing jobs, yet the reverse is happening. After decades of dropping employment in manufacturing, the turnaround is astonishing as you can see in this graphic, yet you can see the potential for it as the tariffs being manufacturing jobs back from Asia.
September 2018 Job Report:
- unemployment fell 0.2 percentage point to 3.7%
- number of unemployed persons decreased by 270,000 to 6.0 million
- person employed in part time jobs for economic reasons rose 263,000 to 4.6 million (a pool of workers ready for full time jobs coming)
- there were 383,000 discouraged workers same as one year ago
- job gains in professional and business services (+54,000), in health care (+28,000), and in transportation and warehousing (+24,000), construction (+24,000)
- manufacturing sector was up 278,000 jobs, with about 80% of the gain in the durable goods component
- average hourly earnings increased 2.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, from September 2017 to September 2018 (8 cents to $27.24)
- state personal income increased 4.2% on annual basis
Career Opportunity for Debt Ridden Students
With employers desperate for workers and willing to train them, it’s an especially rosy picture. The power is shifting to workers and away from the multinationals and democrats, who are obviously not happy about it.
Demand for young workers and professionals will be high. Employment is increasingly dominated by older workers as we approach 2026, and yet a smaller pool of young workers will be available. That is good news for older workers too, but as babyboomers retire, competent young replacements will be needed and wanted by corporations.
Young people saddled with debt, yet it’s reported they don’t care about the “Make America Great Again” campaign to create high paying jobs for them now and in the next decade. Was high priced US education certificates nothing more than a scam to prepare young people for jobs that were not going to appear?
As we enter 2019, past the January to March tariff transition phase, worker’s minds will begin focusing on higher wages and better jobs. Worker mobility will increase as they become more confident of the US economic outlook.
The democrats will give up as wages improve, exports grow, and the middle class begins to reappear. It won’t happen overnight and there is no housing market bubble.
Avoid the media “sour grapes” rhetoric. Transitioning the US back to health is no easy task and losing the status quo will hurt, but only a little. This is the time for Millennials to envision a better job and prepare for the future when they may launch their own business. Millennials, be smart. You deserve a better life. You’ll get that student loan paid off!
US-based Manufacturing starting to boom: The goods producing sector is expected to increase by 219,000 jobs, growing at a rate of 0.1% per year over the next 8 years.
Jobs Forecasts and Data
Where should I look for the best jobs? Does Florida, California, Texas have the opportunities I want? The charts, videos and commentary below show the best cities and employment/jobs sectors with the most promise. From manufacturing to transportation and infrastructure development to energy to retail trade, 2019/2020 looks like a rare opportunity for US workers to move, land a good paying job, grow their skills, experience, enjoyment, or buy a home, travel, and invest.
“Today, the ratio of unemployed Americans to open jobs stands at 1.4 to 1, down sharply from 6.6 to 1 during the last recession in July 2009. That shrinking pool of job seekers translates into fewer available candidates — leading to today’s growing reliance on recruiting from passive, already employed candidates.” – from Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor.com
Professional and business services looking strong in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming. Wages gains will be strongest in: Leisure & Hospitality (28%), Professional & Business Services, (25%), Transportation & Utilities (24%), Mining (22%), Wholesale & Retail Trade (22%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (19%), and Construction (18%),
California Jobs by Sector
Love those California wages, but not so much the California housing market.
Average Income by State
Growth in average income by state was a hot 5.0% in the 1st quarter of 2018, and still good at 4.2% in the 2nd quarter.
Will Fair Trade Create a Better Outlook for the US Worker?
What we learned from the free trade era is that good jobs inevitably leave to be near where products are designed and manufactured, especially if its cheap. Corporations are cutthroat when it comes to profit and tax reduction.
And today, investment funds flows in a millisecond, away from taxation to the cheapest labor markets. US investment dollars were building jobs in other countries. What was left are skeletal retail sales and warehouse distribution jobs — few, part-time, and poor paying — the kind you already know all too well and which are being automated.
Canada and the UK have suffered equally with Free Trade however, will Fair Trade deliver sustained employment between honest trade partners? I believe it will.
The new post-Obama era holds a lot of promise for Millennials and Gen Z’s who are sadly mired in personal and student loan debt and only have a vague dream of ever buying a home. For babyboomers, this last kick at the can might be a very good kick!
The fact the US has performed as well as it has, shows this country’s creativity and resilience through the past 30 years. But this is a momentous time where very high quality jobs and business investment money will return to the US. Those who are skilled and experienced should be in exceptionally high demand and incomes will definitely rise. It’s good to be skilled and in demand!
Fresh Updated Forecast from Manpower Group
According to the new study and report by ManpowerGroup, a major information provider for employment forecasts, predictions and outlooks. Manpower Group surveyed more than 11,000 employers to learn more about their attitudes, needs and forecasts for hiring for 4th quarter 2018.
From the ManPowerGroup report, here are the cities with the best job forecast outlook:
Best Employment Sectors: Manufacturing, Wholesale & Retail Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Which Sector will see the best growth? If you ask President Trump, he might say manufacturing. Wholesale, Retail trade, professional and business services, and financial look pretty good for 2017. See the forecast for East, West, South and North US here.
The ManpowerGroup report doesn’t touch much on the Oil & Gas industry which could significant growth. Oil prices are rising slightly to under $60 a barrel for the next 2 years. With a rising USD dollar, US energy exports could be very lucrative. Will North Dakota see a jobs boom?
According to the US energy jobs report,
“Energy Efficiency employers project the highest growth rate over the next 12 months (9%), followed by Electric Power Generation (7%); Transmission, Distribution, and Storage (6%), and Motor Vehicles (3%).
The report suggests manufacturing in the energy sector will be low growth, but will Trump’s intentions change that?
The Best and Worst Cities for Jobs in the US
WalletHub has released its survey of US employers and generated a rating system of best cities for jobs. WalletHub’s analysts assessed 150 of the most populated U.S. cities across 23 key indicators of job-market strength. Criteria for job outlook rankings included: job opportunities, employment growth, median annual income and more. You can see the full list at Wallethub.com
Where will you find a job this year? Here’s the latest employment outlook in the US:
|Rank||City||Total Score||‘Job Market’ Rank||Socio economic Rank|
|4||Sioux Falls, SD||64.72||5||11|
|5||San Francisco, CA||63.37||6||34|
|6||Rancho Cucamonga, CA||63.35||7||15|
|8||Salt Lake City, UT||62.54||10||25|
|14||Fort Lauderdale, FL||60.23||12||79|
|15||Fort Wayne, IN||60.15||8||73|
|19||Overland Park, KS||59.58||34||5|
|20||San Jose, CA||59.41||22||38|
|26||Grand Prairie, TX||58.59||23||55|
|28||Little Rock, AR||58.41||17||103|
|30||Huntington Beach, CA||57.95||37||20|
|38||San Diego, CA||56.98||48||21|
|39||Colorado Springs, CO||56.95||43||28|
|43||St. Louis, MO||56.5||32||76|
|51||St. Paul, MN||55.36||76||14|
|57||Las Vegas, NV||54.87||62||43|
|58||San Antonio, TX||54.6||39||107|
|59||St. Petersburg, FL||54.58||61||53|
|60||Grand Rapids, MI||54.51||75||29|
|71||Jersey City, NJ||53.29||82||44|
|72||Pembroke Pines, FL||53.15||74||65|
|73||Santa Rosa, CA||53.02||88||35|
|74||Virginia Beach, VA||52.85||92||18|
|75||Oklahoma City, OK||52.78||72||89|
What are your thoughts on the jobs forecast and outlook for 2019, and 2020? Will Donald Trump be able to bring jobs back to the US or will the mid-terms, democrats, and trade frictions end the Make America Great Again campaign? Is free trade about to transition to fair trade, or will Trump simply reverse the trade deficits with China, Mexico and Indonesia?
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