US Jobs Outlook
The March jobs report has shaken the Democrat media and is reaffirming the positive effect of tariffs and government waste control.
March’s job growth wasn’t supposed to happen, and April’s might not be positive, but the re-industrialization plan looks to be on the mind’s of US and foreign companies. Most expect a downturn in the next 3 months to 6 months, yet with inflation falling fast, CEOs and investors will see little reason to move to the US, set up production, and hire workers. The process will be slow at first, thus softening the job picture until next fall.
Into 2026, the US economy will greatly heat up and this is where inflation will reappear. US corporate earnings will grow pushing up US stock prices, while tax cuts and deregulation will significantly cut costs and expenses. A weaker 2025 will open to a strong 2026 and 5 year period ahead.
BLS March 2025 Jobs Report
The US added 228,000 jobs in March, far more than expected even though DOGE was laying off thousands of government workers. Last month’s was a sudden and significant improvement on February’s paltry 117,000 jobs created, and well up from the 167,000 jobs created each on average in the past 12 months.
Economists predicted only 140,000 jobs would be created. It’s astonishing that they can miss by that much and it puts into question why they comment at all. Media personalities and economic pundits were of a mind that Trump’s tariff threats would crush employment and GDP, but it’s not playing out like they hoped. In the post tariff analysis, we found that massive inbound foreign direct investment will give the US economy a jolt of energy and opportunity. Trump’s reindustrialization plan is looking more certain.
Pundits say factories can’t be built that quickly, but small production plants probably can be assembled quicker in 2025 with the technology and deregulation occuring. Biden’s government stopped all US manufacturing projects to support his China initiative. Now the doors wide open, given imports from China won’t be arriving. In fact, China announced its own tariffs of 34% on US goods to close the relationship with the communist country finally. America and free countries are moving on.
Where did the Job Growth Happen?
The healthcare, transportation, warehousing and retail comprised most of the gains, while government employment declined by 11,000.
Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 23,000 last month, about double the previous 12-month average gain of 12,000 jobs. In March, job gains in couriers and messengers (+16,000) and truck transportation (+10,000) were partially offset by decreases in warehousing and storage (-9,000).
Health care added 54,000 jobs in March, in line with the average monthly gain of 52,000 over the prior 12 months. Healthcare company stocks have done well in the past two days, unlike other sectors. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory healthcare services (+20,000), hospitals (+17,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+17,000). It seems the healthcare industry is looking bright perhaps in anticipation of Trump’s changes.
BLS reports that Employment changed little other major industries, including:
- mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction
- construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade
- information; financial activities; professional and business services
- leisure and hospitality;
Wage gains for American workers fell. In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by only 9 cents, or 0.3%, to $36.00. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8%. This suggests inflation might be on the slide too thus allowing the FED to reduce interest rates, given they said hot employment data was what they were watching.
Household Survey Data
Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in March. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), teenagers (13.7 percent), Whites (3.7 percent), Blacks (6.2 percent), Asians (3.5 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change in March.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.5 million, changed little in March. The long-term unemployed accounted for 21.3 percent of all unemployed people.
The labor force participation rate, at 62.5 percent, changed little over the month and over the year. The employment-population ratio held at 59.9 percent in March.
Very Positive is the March Jobs report
In what should have been a downtrend in employment and hiring, BLS’s jobs report was strong.
Summary of March, 2025:
- non-farm payrolls: rose by 228,000
- unemployment rate: 4.2%
- average hourly earnings: rose by 9 cents, or 0.3%, to $36.00.
- long-term unemployed: 1.5 million, changed little in March.
- leisure and hospitality: unchanged
- construction jobs: unchanged
- education jobs: unchanged
- employment in professional and business services: unchanged
- manufacturing employment: unchanged
- retail trade: up 24,000
The BLS latest jobs report is giving credence to a strong stock market outlook and little support for any type of correction or crash.
US Employment Outlook
BLS has presented its forecast of the US employment picture for the 2019–2029 period.
The U.S. economy is projected to add 6.7 million jobs from 2023 to 2033, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Total employment is projected to increase to 174.6 million and grow 0.4 percent annually, which is slower than the 1.3 percent annual growth recorded over the 2013-23 decade.
The problem with BLS’s projections is that the economic and trade picture has vastly changed. BLS’s forecast published last year didn’t anticipate a change to the Pro-USA movement with Trump. Trump’s focus on tariff walls and the incoming foreign direct investment by companies that know they must move plants to the US. Those companies that come in soon will get a big jump on the hesitant laggards.
Trump has announced over a trillion in new investment, but with the tariffs in place for certain, the others will be rushing in to build new plants and hire US workers. The outlook is tremendously positive. Just the reduction in the trade deficit, falling inflation and interest rates, lower energy costs, reduced taxes, and end of harmful regulations will create a supportive environment for new business formation, small business growth, and profitability.
The reduction in illegal immigrants will have an impact on the job market with the new Trump tariffs in effect. Fewer workers available will likely help raise the employment rate and raise wages. As new manufacturing plants and new US businesses are formed, it stands to reason, US workers will be in demand.
Discover more on the 2025 economic outlook, stock price projections, and the report on the next 3 months for the stock market.
