Housing Market Update – US Real Estate Report
Housing Market 2019 Outlook
The Housing Market Predictions for 2019? The US economy is predicted to grow 3 to 5% (now 4.2%), and with house construction intact, and employment strong, and US wages rising, we’ll see more Americans buying a home. For many happy people, it will be their first home.
As you’ll read below and in the full US housing market report, there is uncertainty, but that doubt can’t hold back persistent demand from Millennial buyers from New York to Los Angeles to Miami. Even laggards such as Houston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and even Chicago might be the darlings of 2019 and 2020. See the supporting stats below from NAR, Zillow, Tradingeconomics, FreddieMac, Forbes, Forisk, and more.
The economy is growing healthy again, not only in California, but in Florida Texas, Massachusetts and New York.
JOBS AND BUSINESSES RETURNING FROM OVERSEAS
Perhaps the most optimistic factor in the US economy is the return of high paying jobs in 2019. Momentum grows via the Presidents America First policies. This will stimulate the housing market as Millennials in particular, find themselves with lasting high paying careers.
Could jobs actually return to Ohio, Wisconsin,, Michigan, Indianapolis, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Nebraska, and other states that have suffered huge population losses (e.g., Chicago and Detroit)? Philadelphia’s housing market is expecting a 16.6% growth in prices – a sure sign the America’s outlook is sunny and bright.
Talk of future punishment against the U.S. in trade is clearly hogwash. When countries need to do business, they will gladly exchange with the U.S. as it is best trade partner in the world. Countries that play fair will enjoy the winfall.
HOUSING PRICES TO CLIMB FURTHER IN 2019
Most experts predict a flat housing market or a buyer’s market for 2019 and 2020. Given the lack of housing availability, it might sound crazy to suggest a buyer’s market is on the horizon in Los Angeles, San Diego, or the Bay Area, but look at the stats below and you’ll see things are changing.
With strong growth in home construction, this might make it the best time to buy a house and a good time to sell your home. If mortgage rates grow a little, you should be considering buying in 2018.
BUYER MARKET SIGNALS
- rising home construction
- flattening home prices
- stable economy
- trade turmoil eases inflation
- sales-to-active listings ratio below 12%
For a home buyer however, it’s a tough decision to buy in 2018/2019 given geopolitical uncertainty, trade transitions, a 2020 election, current high home prices, rising mortgage rates and higher housing construction costs ahead.
However, with US businesses getting a huge sales boost in their own country and with fewer imported products, Americans will enjoy low unemployment, higher wages and more access to home financing. It’s all positive and optimistic for a strong housing market and perhaps the best time to buy a house.
the industry looks attractive this year given solid economic growth … Consistent job growth, growing interest from first-time homebuyers as well as seemingly high homebuilder confidence are adding to the momentum for home building – From Zacks 2018 Outlook
MILLENNIALS AIM TO BUY A HOME
More US Millennials, that big demographic group, are into their home buying years, with more funds, hungry for their first purchase and that will ensure you have lots of competition. Millennial demand could make 2019 the best year to sell your home.
WHEN IS THE BEST TIME TO BUY A HOUSE?
Will 2019 be the best time to buy a house or condo? Probably. Housing stock on the market now isn’t so hot now but availability is going to improve in the next few years. Mortgage rates and construction costs will rise but this might not be too painful until 2020 where inflation and financing qualification could hurt prospective buyers.
If the world heads into recession in 2020, that would only ease inflation worries in the US. The US economy will stay solid as more jobs move from China to the US. Overall, home prices aren’t expected to grow much but market crashes are highly unlikely. That should make it a safer purchase for buyers and more difficult for sellers to get the best price possible.
2019 OUTLOOK POSITIVE FOR ALL PROFESSIONALS
Will 2019 be a bad time for real estate agents? Total home sales will grow in 2019 as predicted in charts below and home building will continue its growth. It’s a good time for home builders, mortgage agents, furniture makers, appliance manufacturers, solar panel installers, brick manufacturers, excavators, pool builders, designers, plumbers, electricians, and others who will fulfill this huge pent up demand for homes right across America.
THESE ARE GOOD TIMES AHEAD – PLEASE LET OTHERS KNOW ABOUT THIS POSITIVE TIME FOR THE REAL ESTATE SECTOR
HOME PRICE PREDICTIONS 2019 – TOP US CITIES
Here’s Zillow’s forecasted home prices and price growth expectations in Factors Point at Housing Market Growth
|City||2017 Home Price||2018 Home Price||2019 Home Price Forecast||1 Year Growth|
The above chart reveals a rosy picture for home sellers. Cities such as Tampa, Orlando, Las Vegas, and Sacramento are looking bright for sellers. Keep in mind, the 1 year price forecasts for 2019 are based on the unusual price jump during last April. Compared to last summer however, the price growth rate will be much higher.
Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, San Diego continue their steady price growth. Based on improving conditions for US companies, all US cities, including those in the depressed US midwest cities will enjoy great economies.
Housing price forecasts depend on availability, construction, job growth, wages, mortgage rates, and consumer confidence. All factors are positive for growth in construction and purchase for the next 5 years. It will be quite a while before demand is satiated.
Overall, the US economic predictions are very positive that means optimism reigns for smart real estate investors and home buyers. Although rising trade tensions and tariffs could hamper global GDP, the effect on the US economy will still be positive. Any reduction in the US international trade deficit and a return of investment funds to the US will make a big impact on housing.
Rising employment, wages, new business startups, reduced corporate tax, and less competition from cheap producers and some protection of American industry will ensure 2019 is another boom year economically. Investment in US business will continue in 2019.
FREDDIE MAC FORECAST SNAPSHOT 2019
|30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage||4%||4.6%||5.1%|
|Total Home Sales||6,120,000||6,320000||6,440,000|
|Housing Price Growth||7.3%||7%||3.1%|
|Total Loan Originations||$1,865||$1,750||$1,744|
|Real GDP Growth||2.6%||2.7%||2.1%|
|Total Home Sales||6,120,000||6,320,000||6,440,000|
|Chart data courtesy of Freddie Mac and ECONOMIC & HOUSING RESEARCH GROUP|
As suggested in the oil price forecast, (oil close to $70 a barrel now), shale oil production could reduce cash outflows to OPEC and raise revenues for US producers. US producers are pumping out 14 million barrels a day, something OPEC is very concerned about.