Who Will Win the Presidential Election?

Who Will Win the Presidential Election?

Presidential Election Winner?

And What Will the US Economy be Like After the Election?

Just weeks are left until the all-important 2020 US Presidential election day, November 3rd 2020. The outcome of this election could bring dramatic economic and legal changes in the United States.

The Presidential debate tonight might only make more voters uncertain about one candidate’s aim.  The debate however turned into an argument, and neither candidate was particularly sharp, so perhaps the next debates will be calmer.

 

Voters are thinking about the economy in 2021 while others just want Trump to go away, regardless of the economic cost. Some are only concerned with global climate change, and could care less if the US economy goes under.

Other voters believe all will be magically healed, while still others sense even worse turmoil after the election. Whether housing market crashes and stock market crashes and the economy will fall to create immense strife in the country, we’ll soon know.

 

Selloffs have already begun. The pandemic itself arrived catching us all off guard.  Investors are nervous about a completely opposite economic plan, still not fully known or transparent.

The polls forecast a Biden win, but President Trump has been behind before and won. What’s perhaps more important this time around is how silent Republicans have been. When you see the huge views on Fox youtube videos, you get the feeling there may be a big expression of support to show for Trump, and against the Democrats uncivil behavior.

Of course, we’ll only know by mid November 3rd, depending on how chaotic the election fraud and vote counting is.  Some have suggested both paper and digital voting are open to massive fraud.

One thing for sure, the two sides have come to hate each other.  Here in this election polling map, we see the most debt-ridden states are behind the democrats.

Screenshot courtesy of Wikipedia.

Coronavirus Drags on, but Can Anyone take the Pain Away?

If Covid’s ravages continue, can the economy recover before aid payments run out? If Biden wins, will Republicans seek revenge on the Democrats for their treatment of Trump, the police and American business?

 

Who wins the election will determine very different paths for the economy. President Trump’s pro-America agenda is at risk, as President Trump’s own words often destroy any gains he’s made with swing voters. The President’s mouth is his own biggest political liability.

Biden and the democrats are hoping a California firestorm of controversy, replayed enough will cloud voters judgment with enough smoke, so that no attention will be paid to the economy. They’ve put all their chips on the Corona Virus card this time and hyped up Democrat voters seem to be okay with it.

The $500 Billion Dollar Trade Deficit and 26.7 Trillion Dollar Debt

The economic setting for 2021 is easy to see. The Democrats don’t care about the US economy and never mention deficits or unfair trade with China.  That might tell you what they might be planning.   The goal was globalism at any cost to the US and its future, centered by made in China business, where China investors would earn commissions on imports Americans were buying.

However, during the 8 year Obama era, no one was buying American goods or services and American’s were spending money they didn’t have. Can the US return to this kind of governance?

Cumulate US Debt 2020. Screenshot courtesy of usdebtclock.org/

And what are the democrats offering up as their election promises?

That’s a tough one, because they’re only offering vague suggestions and Nancy Pelosi is suggesting there be no Presidential debates.  That is very undemocratic and sure to fail for the Democrats.  They’re hoping the current emotion about work stoppages, climate change and Corona Virus fears will fill their election sails with wind, and they can skip the details.

Of course, any promises made by either party that seem unlikely or plain silly, I’ve added a ? mark.

 

Biden Democrat Election Promises:

  • higher taxes
  • return to old regulations on industry, housing, business and trade
  • destruction of oil and gas industry (fracking in particular)
  • make America relaxed again (calm the hype and conflict between democrats and republicans)?
  • new economic opportunities for workers??
  • combat global climate crisis
  • provide a world class education in all zip codes?
  • protecting communities by reforming justice system?
  • renewing American leadership?
  • has no word on China economic relations, US/China trade deficit, tariffs, IP theft, and China military aggression
  • rescind Trump-era tax cuts as well take back $10,000 of student loan forgiveness for federal loans
  • raise Federal minimum wage to $15 a hour
  • run a “buy America” campaign (an abuse of International trade agreements)
  • $400 billion expense to buy American goods
  • $300bn in US-made materials, services, research and technology
  • business support for minorities through a $30bn investment fund
  • $20bn grant programme to incentivise states to invest in incarceration reduction efforts, eliminate mandatory minimum sentences, decriminalise marijuana and expunge prior cannabis convictions, and end the death penalty
  • some funding for police should be redirected to social services like mental health, and calls for a $300m investment into a community policing programme.
  • recommitting to cutting greenhouse gases up to 28% by 2025, based on 2005 levels?
  • $1.7tn federal investment in green technologies research
  • rescind limits on the number of applications for refugee asylum and end the bans on travel from several majority-Muslim countries
  • ensure illegal immigrants children are eligible for federal student aid.
    withdrawing the Trump-era tax cuts

 

Where’s The Beef?

The lack of certainty and detail, and proof of credibility in democrat promises is alarmingly missing. Of course, most political promises aren’t worth the air used to transmit them to the media. With falling tax revenues, rising tax rates, rising imports, increasing regulation, and mounting debt spending, what do you believe is credible?

And just because the US reduces carbon emissions doesn’t mean China will reduce theirs.

President Trump Election Promises

There’s no shortage of promises from President Trump, however he has managed to keep many of the ones he made previously. He’s transparent and he stands visible about who he is and his intentions.  He’s been tough on China, given big business a big bonus, and raised employment, especially for hard to employ people and minorities.

His biggest glaring failure is not bringing jobs back to the US and not doing enough for small business.

Even globalists have to agree though, the lack of wars these last 4 years is shocking. The world is at relative peace except for China’s aggression.

 

His effect on international war and terrorism has been outstanding. Where CNN each year had minute by minute coverage of strife and wars, there is almost nothing now. The world definitely is more peaceful with Donald Trump.

Trump Promises 2020

  • maintain tax cuts
  • stop China currency manipulation
  • stop China IP theft
  • reduce trade deficit with China??
  • Stop Endless Wars and Bring Our Troops Home
  • Get Allies to Pay their Fair Share
  • Block Illegal Immigrants from Becoming Eligible for Taxpayer-Funded Welfare, Healthcare, and Free College Tuition
  • stop illegal immigration and launch legal, screened and merit based immigration to the US
  • End Cashless Bail for law breakers
  • Protect unborn life through every means available
  • Defend the freedoms of religious believers and organizations
  • Corona Virus vaccine soon and eradicate Covid 19?
  • Create 10 Million New Jobs in 10 Months
  • Create 1 Million New Small Businesses?
  • Cut Taxes to Boost Take-Home Pay and Keep Jobs in America
  • Enact Fair Trade Deals that Protect American Jobs
  • “Made in America” Tax Credits
  • Expand Opportunity Zones
  • Continue Deregulatory Agenda for Energy Independence
  • Bring Back 1 Million Manufacturing Jobs from China??
  • Tax Credits for Companies that Bring Back Jobs from China
  • Fully Fund and Hire More Police and Law Enforcement Officers
  • Increase Criminal Penalties for Assaults on Law Enforcement Officers
  • Prosecute Drive-By Shootings as Acts of Domestic Terrorism

Most of President Trump’s election promises have to do with the economy as he is an economic President, not a health crisis President.  If he wants to bring back 1 million jobs from China, he’d better get at it now.  Double or triple the tariffs would help.

In the weeks leading up to the election, we can expect to see President Trump get ambushed by more manufactured crises with Joe Biden call him names like “climate terrorist.”  Biden risks disrespect from voters if he keeps railing about Trump being an anti-American terrorist. He’s clearly for America!

Trump’s Media Weakness

President Trump is not a strategist, and his staff don’t seem to be able to give him guidance. Allowing the democrats to take over the media was a big fail. Nattering and arguing with planted agitators at press conferences is something that really irritates a lot of Americans. He was better off avoiding them altogether.

The Democrats have exploited this opportunity mercilessly as they lead him into situational traps and boxed him in. All President Trump has is the Fox network, avid supporters, and his Twitter account to defend himself.

Judging by the massive views of Fox Youtube videos compared to CNN and NBC videos, there is huge support for the Republicans.

The Democrats are well armed this time around with total ownership of news media where they can attack him personally and politically ever hour of the day in a strategic, team focused and choreographed fashion. Getting these outlets was very smart strategy (spawned when they were down and out in 2016).

 

We know the media can do a lot of harm. They’ve proven that. However, Trump supporters don’t seem to buy the rhetoric and emotional ploys or intimidation.  The excessive damage, violence and murder has disgusted the population, pushing trust back to Trump.  However, many Americans do believe what the media says word for word.

The danger is that the Democrats have launched a new terrorism pandemic that they are ill equipped to control or stop.  It might get them elected but launch the US into a battle ground of violence and strife, hardly a victory.  Trump if elected will launch the national guard, police and military to crack down on them even if state governors try to stop him.  2021 could be violent with a lot of bad people going to prison.

The US Economic Outlook

The data on the US economy shows the country is still desperately vulnerable to China.  The dependency has shown to be deep and risky to US national security and financial solvency.  Despite Trump’s efforts to bring jobs back, big multinationals have resisted him, paid the tariffs, and kept production abroad.

The Obama regime left with small business formation at its lowest level in American history, but President Trump hasn’t done much for small business either. Most of the aid money has gone to big business while small businesses faced shut down and bankruptcy. The financial aid should have gone to small business and the poor.  The funds could have trickled up to global corporations.

 

What Democrat’s Words Mean

The Democrats stopped using the words disease, China, and jobs via their media outlets, suggesting a willingness to  prolong the Covid 19 problem so they can get more political mileage out of it against their pro-US economy and virus prevention weak President.

The economy will gain as businesses slowly open back up over the next year. There will be big Covid surges and outbreaks through the winter and mass vaccinations couldn’t possibly be delivered by next late spring.

This will suppress economic growth for 2020/2021. The President needs to stop China imports and thus force a market for US made goods and services. The loss of another $500 billion in trade each year weighs down the US outlook.

If Biden Wins

If Biden wins, the doors are reopened to China imports, China IP theft, and a loss of the China tariff income. The resulting loss to US business sales will kill their companies, discourage investment in US companies, crash earnings, and result in a dramatic US dollar and stock market crash.

Ending the oil fracking market and coal mining industries will result in huge, high paying job losses in many states and higher energy costs.  And unrealistic green energy projects will cause rocketing electricity prices at a time when most Americans can’t afford them.

Housing markets would crash too as more renters can’t pay their rent, cities empty, and many homeowners head into foreclosure after they lose their jobs. Workers will not be going back to Manhattan and San Francisco high rise offices.  Big cities will be facing dour financial crises (New York) as more people drop their expensive condo and office suite leases and leave for low tax havens.

The Exodus of Investment Funds

It’s the tidal wave of investment funds leaving the US that will create the most damage.  The Dems are anti-business and all the investors know it.  An initial spending spree won’t fool investors about the long term view.  They’ll want to get out right away before the stock market and US dollar crash hard.

The Dems will try to spend to cover up the coming investor exodus, but investors know that government spending is short term and just further raises taxes for Americans who will lose their jobs when companies leave the US.  It’s a perfect storm of economic disaster and you may experience it fully in 2021.

Investors See the Future

Current stock prices are an estimate of future earnings and stock value. The crash would be on November 4th, but could be earlier if Biden win signals are strong. Smart investors will want to beat the rush.

A Biden win likely guarantees a horrible recession, which will cascade globally, since foreign countries all rely on American consumers. It will make cheap China goods even more attractive and US production will plunge. Just the changeover alone to the old Obama policies will crash the US economy.

And as the damage becomes apparent, Biden will be forced to apply tariffs to stop the economic bleeding, leaving him only unemployed US consumers to to pay big taxes via a desperate “Buy American” campaign.  Buy American. Wasn’t that Trump’s mantra?

Biden has been silent on China, and if Pelosi refuses to let him debate with the President, there will be no way for Trump to get at Biden’s sore spot. The Democrats plan to revert to China friendly policies which obviously would only rile the Republicans, and make Democrat workers nervous. So Biden will say nothing on China and economic matters, focus on climate and Covid 19 responses, and hopefully avoid any public debates where the truth might slip out.

If President Trump Wins

If President Trump is victorious, US businesses will enjoy 4 more years of opportunity and protection from China’s totalitarian advantage. The Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, and even the forgotten Russell index will regain record highs even if a vaccine isn’t delivered on time.

America’s economic engine will grow and prosper as his pro-America agenda builds confidence in the country again.

Employment will head back up again as the Covid 19 threat is disabled and a vaccine is delivered in summer of 2021.
The President needs to promote competition and ensure these vaccine companies follow through on their promises and commitments.  They’ve been paid a lot of money.

The President is well aware now of how damaging losing the House of Representatives to the Democrats was. He doesn’t have the power to get aid bills passed and other important legislation taken hostage by politically hungry democrats.

Who’s Going to Win?

Who do you believe will push to victory in the next 5 weeks? Globalist Joe or Made in America’s Trump?

Trump was well behind in 2016 and came back to win. I suspect the same thing is going to happen, but he can say a lot of stupid things in 5 weeks, so it’s a toss up this time.

If the Dems, Antifa and local thug alliance keep committing property crime, intimidation, and murder, then the nod goes to the Republicans. Because safety is a basic value that even law abiding Democrat voters want.  It will motivate more Republicans to speak up against it.  That could outweigh Covid 19, climate, and BLM as voters ponder their own personal future without a job amidst high taxes, a flood of foreign products, police protection, and government aid curtailment.

 

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